PSC
Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải và Dịch vụ Petrolimex Sài Gòn
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.778
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 3.9589th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.9%61st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows accounting signals that sit above most Vietnamese peers on the Beneish M-Score (M-Score = -1.2558, Vietnam peer percentile = 84th) with a year-over-year increase of +2.30, driven notably by a high DSRI (2.3160) and LVGI (1.3727). At the same time the firm has a low overall Earnings Quality Score (32.7/100) concentrated in very weak receivables, margin and revenue quality (each 0.0/100), but some offset from strong accruals quality (94.1/100); insolvency distance looks comfortable (Altman Z-Score = 3.25) and operational fundamentals are neutral (Piotroski F-Score = 5/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2558 (Vietnam peer percentile 84th): the score is higher (more aggressive) than 84% of Vietnamese peers and rose by +2.30 year-over-year; this indicates an accounting trajectory that has moved relative to peers even though the absolute US-calibrated manipulation cutoff (-1.78) is not definitive in Vietnam.
- Days-sales-residual/receivables index (DSRI) = 2.3160: DSRI > 1 indicates receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) grew faster than sales; a DSRI above 2 is notable and is a main driver of the M-Score increase.
- LVGI = 1.3727 (largest single-year component >1): elevated leverage-growth interaction suggests leverage and growth moved together in a way Beneish links to aggressive reporting.
- Earnings Quality Score = 32.7/100 with Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100: very low scores on those components point to weak quality in revenue recognition, margins and receivables stability.
- Cash conversion problems: three-year operating cash flow / net profit = 3.95 (89th percentile among Vietnamese non-financial firms) — this high ratio (low converted cash relative to profit) shows profits have not been converting efficiently into operating cash.
- TATA (total accruals) = 0.0148: while small positive total accruals can be normal, combined with other red flags it warrants scrutiny of accrual drivers given low cash conversion and weak revenue/receivables quality.
- Accruals quality = 94.1/100: accruals appear to be of relatively high quality by the score, indicating less concern from pure accrual magnitude or volatility alone.
- DEPI = 0.9956 and SGAI = 0.9408: depreciation and SG&A indices are around 1 (DEPI slightly below 1, SGAI below 1), so no obvious unusual pattern there compared with the rest of the Beneish components.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.25 (safe zone): the company is in the safe distance-to-bankruptcy zone by the Altman measure, suggesting solvency/financial distress is not immediate.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9: a neutral score that does not show broad operational deterioration in profitability, leverage/liquidity or efficiency across the nine Piotroski tests.
Shareholding is highly concentrated: Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam (Petrolimex) holds 52.7% (institutional), Partners Việt Nam holds 16.7%, and three individuals together hold ~9.5%; the majority (52.7%) indicates group/state influence consistent with typical Vietnamese listed groups and may affect related-party activity and intercompany balances. Director-deal registrations in the past year show one sale registration (3,796,755 shares) and one purchase registration (3,796,755 shares) — these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades, and net registered volume is 0.00% of shares outstanding.
- Compare the growth in trade receivables and revenue year-over-year in the revenue note and the receivables ageing schedule to explain the DSRI = 2.3160.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to reconcile the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 3.95) and identify large non-cash items or timing differences.
- Inspect the related-party transactions note and the schedule of receivables/advances (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) to verify the 3.9% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Read the auditor’s report and the statutory disclosures for the FY2025 statements to confirm which, if any, of the statutory loss tests are met (none were met per the data) and to check any emphasis-of-matter or qualified language regarding going concern, related parties or revenue recognition.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.62
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- 6.6%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- EPS
- 1.075
- BVPS
- 16.835
- Gross Margin
- 9.8%
- Net Margin
- 1.0%
- D/E
- 0.73
- Current Ratio
- 0.90
- Rev Growth
- +10.7%
- Profit Growth
- +681.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.17
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 7.2M
- Charter Capital
- 72.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ vận tải
- Company Type
- CT