PGV

Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3 - Công ty Cổ phần

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnHOSECT

20.400

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close below calibrated value

+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 20.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 22.118

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

Trading liquidity is low.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 47.4%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

−2.7percentage points

Utilities12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Utilities peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−17.2+1.9

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details

Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

0.630

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

9.87%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend3.50%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→733

Payout ratio→83.5%

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→20.400

Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

22.118

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend

Dividend per share733dps source: eventspayout ratio: 83.54

PGV among Utilities

Every stock in the sector, PGV marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is PGV. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	20,852	16,821	16,977	19,887	18,824	21,173	19,275	18,657	18,797	18,786	13,913	11,097	11,158
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)	·	2,144	619	510	1,728	2,393	2,607	2,901	2,492	4,890	2,059	1,157	2,261	2,634
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	3,257	2,880	2,935	3,838	4,113	4,309	4,261	3,954	1,771	1,051	854	1,059	1,097
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	12,683	10,331	9,977	12,053	9,144	9,839	8,938	9,240	8,947	12,463	9,201	5,541	5,016
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	408	65	127	187	195	147	180	129	172	301	210	2,781	3,151
Net Inventories	·	2,386	2,454	3,095	1,920	3,066	4,320	2,988	2,904	3,080	3,040	2,535	1,726	1,934
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	2,391	2,454	3,096	1,923	3,068	4,322	2,990	2,904	3,081	3,041	2,547	1,743	1,942
Other current assets	·	382	537	460	348	108	99	187	67	109	173	165	510	476
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	34,180	38,446	41,864	46,414	49,133	51,727	55,818	59,060	62,589	66,805	70,742	72,071	69,586
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1	4	4	3	3	3	3	4	0.8	0.02	0.01	0.01	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1	4	4	3	3	3	3	4	0.8	0.02	0.01	0.01	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	29,297	33,015	37,113	41,184	44,484	48,199	52,327	53,857	56,869	61,569	66,335	13,337	25,820
Tangible fixed assets	·	28,702	32,425	36,521	40,584	43,892	48,094	52,229	53,769	56,804	61,502	66,265	13,274	25,778
Intagible fixed assets	·	594	590	592	600	592	105	98	88	65	67	70	63	43
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	2,711	2,547	2,521	2,616	2,417	2,246	2,002	1,908	1,831	1,764	1,732	1,774	1,639
Investments in associate companies	·	2,177	2,010	1,985	2,027	1,696	1,538	1,465	1,385	1,342	1,288	1,268	1,268	1,184
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	537	537	537	537	537	522	537	537	519	519	519	518	468
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−3	0	−1.0	−5	0	−6	0	−14	−30	−43	−54	−12	−13
Other non-current assets	·	2,115	2,268	2,202	2,268	1,833	1,161	1,343	630	100	57	40	61	1,025
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	273	260	266	267	256	234	398	121	36	44	29	61	1,025
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	55,032	55,267	58,841	66,300	67,957	72,900	75,093	77,717	81,385	85,590	84,655	83,168	80,744
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	37,128	40,697	43,070	48,704	50,548	57,936	62,701	67,448	71,595	76,918	75,974	72,146	67,670
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	14,370	13,814	11,480	13,267	10,457	11,740	11,516	11,397	12,903	10,667	10,577	16,954	18,927
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)	·	5,452	5,885	5,335	5,381	4,898	4,943	5,373	5,473	4,805	3,338	3,339	7,363	3,965
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	2	0	0.00	0	2	10	0.1	0.1	0.03	0	240,000	0.2	0.6
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	22,759	26,883	31,590	35,437	40,091	46,196	51,185	56,050	58,691	66,251	65,397	55,192	48,743
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)	·	21,926	26,010	30,675	35,118	39,757	45,847	50,821	55,671	58,297	65,842	64,973	55,188	48,737
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	17,903	14,570	15,771	17,597	17,409	14,964	12,392	10,269	9,790	8,673	8,680	11,022	13,074
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	17,903	14,570	15,771	17,597	17,409	14,964	12,392	10,269	9,790	8,673	8,680	11,022	13,074
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	11,235	11,235	11,235	11,235	11,235	10,700	10,700	10,700	10,562	10,562	10,561	10,488	12,401
Other Reserves	·	66	66	66	51	47	46	45	19	130	130	129	123	215
Foreign Currency Difference reserve	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	−922	−2,449	−3,435	−3,316	−811	−515
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	1,191	1,180	912	1,316	697	184	142	134	291	223	153	84	108
Other Reserves	·	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	11	9
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	5,071	1,752	3,184	4,599	5,027	3,641	1,116	−20	881	826	793	796	531
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	55,032	55,267	58,841	66,300	67,957	72,900	75,093	77,717	81,385	85,590	84,655	83,168	80,744
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	11,235	11,235	11,235	11,235	11,235	10,700	10,700	10,700	10,562	10,562	10,561	10,488	12,401
MINORITY INTERESTS	·	326	320	359	374	381	370	367	336	353	345	339	325	296

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.50 · 38th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.20

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.147

GMI

0.457

AQI

0.903

SGI

1.071

DEPI

0.934

SGAI

0.950

TATA

0.016

LVGI

0.915

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: 0.4329th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 0.7%30th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.78

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.47

Positive

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.87×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.10×Turnover0.79×Leverage3.07=ROE20.8%

Price Risk

Momentum

+31.1%

Volatility

21.4%

Max Drawdown

−18.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.70P/E

P/B: 1.42
P/S: 0.57
ROE: 23.4%
ROA: 6.7%
EPS: 3.312
BVPS: 15.646
Gross Margin: 16.0%
Net Margin: 8.6%
D/E: 1.53
Current Ratio: 1.45
Rev Growth: +7.1%
Profit Growth: +520.1%
EV/EBITDA: 4.44
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 1,213M
Charter Capital: 12,133B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3): Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry: Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for PGV. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Điện lực Việt Nam

Inst

99.2%

1,114M

2026-03-31

Board & Management

Đinh Quốc Lâm

Chairman of Management Board

Nguyễn Thanh Trùng Dương

Deputy General Director

Lê Văn Danh

Member of Management Board/General Director

Nguyễn Thị Hải Yến

Member of Management Board

Võ Minh Thắng

Deputy General Director

Hồ Anh Tuấn

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương

Deputy General Director/Spokesman

Trần Đình Ân

Deputy General Director

Châu Thị Duy Lan

Person in charge of Corporate governace

Vũ Phương Thảo

Chief Accountant

Top connections

TV499.2%TV199.2%TV299.2%TV399.2%TBD99.2%NT299.2%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Also note

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

PGV among Utilities

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

PGV among Utilities

Ownership network