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PEN

Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp III Petrolimex

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuHNXCT
7.800
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+9.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
7.800
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.550

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→3.86B
Fair EV/EBITDA→8.6x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→7.800
Calibrated value vs last close→+9.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
8.550
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA3.9 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·308254235184241345300300296283333126150
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·17153512625128243414302116
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1391111110.95959595960232
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2241981631381432441721711671361694333
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·11101534414613716147
Net Inventories
·50262116163830363573725961
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·50262116163830363573725961
Other current assets
·56679101190.6110.68
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000007
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·161820513237414337394216198
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.020.010.01260.010.010.010.010.010.010.01640
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.020.010.01260.010.010.010.010.010.010.01640
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·14161923293438343334352934
Tangible fixed assets
·14161923293438333334352934
Intagible fixed assets
·00000.010.020.030.050.060.010.050.10.2
Investment in properties
·00000.010.030.040.060.080.090.10.10.1
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.70.75858
Investments in associate companies
·0.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.4
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.70.75858
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4−0.4
Other non-current assets
·1112232332545
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1112232332245
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·324272255235272381340343332322375286247
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·264215199163201295258261254237291198164
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·241210188154186286243247235224282198153
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·9856486185120113979465604144
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·7710211566708979759510814911445
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2351091491514191310010
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·235109149151419131000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·59585772728682827985838883
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·59585772728682827985838883
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·00171717161615151514128
Other Reserves
·000000000000.70.7
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−21−22−23−8−87330.176128
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·324272255235272381340343332322375286247
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·50505050505050505050505050
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
30
Poor
Accrual Quality
38
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.42 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.08
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.783
GMI
1.159
AQI
0.701
SGI
1.447
DEPI
0.935
SGAI
0.613
TATA
0.182
LVGI
1.036

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
3.5%59th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.41×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.4178 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.08, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnamese peers though the absolute -1.78 US cutoff is not definitive here. Key internal signals are mixed: very weak cash and margin quality (Earnings-Quality 29.5/100 with cash conversion 0.0/100 and margin quality 0.0/100) but very strong receivables quality (100/100); the Altman Z-Score is 1.46 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.4178 (81st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.08) — the M-Score combines eight ratios to signal earnings manipulation risk; the company sits well above most Vietnamese peers by percentile and is moving slightly toward more aggressive accounting year-over-year.
  • TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.1823 (18.23%) — TATA measures the extent of accruals; a positive and relatively large value increases the M-Score and indicates high accruals relative to assets.
  • SGI (sales growth index) = 1.4466 — SGI measures year-over-year sales growth; a 44.66% increase is large and, in the Beneish framework, rapid revenue growth can be associated with increased accounting risk.
  • GMI (gross margin index) = 1.1591 — GMI > 1 means gross margins have deteriorated year-over-year (here ~15.9% change), which can create incentives to manage earnings.
  • Earnings-Quality: cash conversion = 0.0/100 and margin quality = 0.0/100 — these component scores indicate very weak cash-based earnings and deteriorating margins versus peers.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.46 (distress zone) — this Z-score measures financial distress (distance to bankruptcy); 1.46 places the company in the distress zone by the Altman metric.
  • Accumulated losses = 0.41x paid-in capital — the company has accumulated losses equal to 41% of paid-in capital, a non-trivial erosion of capital relative to equity base.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — the scoring framework shows receivables are the strongest component, indicating low indications of revenue-recognition via receivables growth.
  • DSRI (days sales receivable index) = 0.7828 — DSRI < 1 indicates receivables are growing more slowly than sales (or shortening), consistent with the high receivables-quality score.
  • AQI (asset quality index) = 0.7015 — AQI < 1 indicates the company’s proportion of long-lived or other non-current assets has not expanded in a way that typically signals aggressive capitalization.
  • SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 0.6126 — SGAI < 1 shows SGA expenses grew more slowly than sales, which reduces one common manipulation pressure (i.e., not masking costs by holding SGA flat while inflating sales).
  • LVGI (leverage index) = 1.0358 — modest increase in leverage (3.58%) rather than a jump in debt; not an exacerbating signal compared with more dramatic leverage swings.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: a Petrolimex construction & trading subsidiary holds 30.0%, followed by a listed bank PGB at 5.2% and three individuals holding 5.0%, 4.8% and 4.3%. The large 30% institutional block and several meaningful insider/individual stakes indicate significant block-holder influence; director-deal registrations show one sale registration (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30), which are intentions to trade and not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 ‘prepayments to suppliers’, ‘loans receivable’ and ‘other long-term receivables’ line items with the related-party note and the receivables aging schedule to confirm the composition of the 3.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile profit before tax and net profit with cash flows from operating activities in the cash-flow statement and the notes to verify the cash-conversion weakness (cash conversion score = 0.0/100).
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note and the reconciliation of opening/closing gross carrying amounts and accumulated depreciation to understand DEPI = 0.9347 and whether depreciation policies or revaluations changed materially in FY2025.
  • Review the equity and statutory notes that show accumulated losses (0.41x paid-in capital), the parent profit line (net loss years = 0), and the statutory loss test disclosures to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended) delisting-loss conditions were met in the published audited statements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.46
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.24
Negative
Composite
27
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.61×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover1.20×Leverage5.44=ROE2.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−6.7%
Volatility
102.8%
Max Drawdown
−35.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
22.27P/E
P/B
0.66
P/S
0.10
ROE
3.0%
ROA
0.6%
EPS
350
BVPS
11.894
Gross Margin
6.9%
Net Margin
0.5%
D/E
2.04
Current Ratio
1.28
Rev Growth
+46.0%
Profit Growth
+97.8%
EV/EBITDA
11.39
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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