Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.550
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 20 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.5%59th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.41×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.4178 (81st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.08, signalling more aggressive accounting relative to most Vietnamese peers though the absolute -1.78 US cutoff is not definitive here. Key internal signals are mixed: very weak cash and margin quality (Earnings-Quality 29.5/100 with cash conversion 0.0/100 and margin quality 0.0/100) but very strong receivables quality (100/100); the Altman Z-Score is 1.46 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4178 (81st percentile among Vietnamese peers; YoY change +0.08) — the M-Score combines eight ratios to signal earnings manipulation risk; the company sits well above most Vietnamese peers by percentile and is moving slightly toward more aggressive accounting year-over-year.
- TATA (total accruals / total assets) = 0.1823 (18.23%) — TATA measures the extent of accruals; a positive and relatively large value increases the M-Score and indicates high accruals relative to assets.
- SGI (sales growth index) = 1.4466 — SGI measures year-over-year sales growth; a 44.66% increase is large and, in the Beneish framework, rapid revenue growth can be associated with increased accounting risk.
- GMI (gross margin index) = 1.1591 — GMI > 1 means gross margins have deteriorated year-over-year (here ~15.9% change), which can create incentives to manage earnings.
- Earnings-Quality: cash conversion = 0.0/100 and margin quality = 0.0/100 — these component scores indicate very weak cash-based earnings and deteriorating margins versus peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.46 (distress zone) — this Z-score measures financial distress (distance to bankruptcy); 1.46 places the company in the distress zone by the Altman metric.
- Accumulated losses = 0.41x paid-in capital — the company has accumulated losses equal to 41% of paid-in capital, a non-trivial erosion of capital relative to equity base.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — the scoring framework shows receivables are the strongest component, indicating low indications of revenue-recognition via receivables growth.
- DSRI (days sales receivable index) = 0.7828 — DSRI < 1 indicates receivables are growing more slowly than sales (or shortening), consistent with the high receivables-quality score.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 0.7015 — AQI < 1 indicates the company’s proportion of long-lived or other non-current assets has not expanded in a way that typically signals aggressive capitalization.
- SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 0.6126 — SGAI < 1 shows SGA expenses grew more slowly than sales, which reduces one common manipulation pressure (i.e., not masking costs by holding SGA flat while inflating sales).
- LVGI (leverage index) = 1.0358 — modest increase in leverage (3.58%) rather than a jump in debt; not an exacerbating signal compared with more dramatic leverage swings.
Ownership is concentrated: a Petrolimex construction & trading subsidiary holds 30.0%, followed by a listed bank PGB at 5.2% and three individuals holding 5.0%, 4.8% and 4.3%. The large 30% institutional block and several meaningful insider/individual stakes indicate significant block-holder influence; director-deal registrations show one sale registration (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30), which are intentions to trade and not executed trades.
- Compare FY2025 ‘prepayments to suppliers’, ‘loans receivable’ and ‘other long-term receivables’ line items with the related-party note and the receivables aging schedule to confirm the composition of the 3.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile profit before tax and net profit with cash flows from operating activities in the cash-flow statement and the notes to verify the cash-conversion weakness (cash conversion score = 0.0/100).
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy note and the reconciliation of opening/closing gross carrying amounts and accumulated depreciation to understand DEPI = 0.9347 and whether depreciation policies or revaluations changed materially in FY2025.
- Review the equity and statutory notes that show accumulated losses (0.41x paid-in capital), the parent profit line (net loss years = 0), and the statutory loss test disclosures to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (amended) delisting-loss conditions were met in the published audited statements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.66
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- 3.0%
- ROA
- 0.6%
- EPS
- 350
- BVPS
- 11.894
- Gross Margin
- 6.9%
- Net Margin
- 0.5%
- D/E
- 2.04
- Current Ratio
- 1.28
- Rev Growth
- +46.0%
- Profit Growth
- +97.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 11.39
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 50.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT