PGB

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Thịnh vượng và Phát triển

VietnamBanksNgân hàngUPCOMNH

9.400

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Close below calibrated value

+15.8%Calibrated value vs last close

−50%At last close+100%+500%

Last close (VND): 9.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 10.883

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Also note

Trading liquidity is low.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Medium; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: 50.8%; 12 monthsHistorical calibration; Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

−1.4percentage points

Banks12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Banks peers, for model gaps like this one.

Not an absolute return forecast.
Not a price target.
A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.

Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

Sector calibration span · percentage points

−9.5+8.4

The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
Actual returns can fall outside it.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

NH→Bank

Classified as bank because company type is NH (commercial bank).

ModelP/B x ROE Regression

Intrinsic Value = Fair P/B x Book Value Per Share

Estimates a fair price-to-book (P/B) multiple from how the market prices listed peer banks on their book value and returns. ROE, asset size, a bad-loan indicator and credit growth are weighed together to place this bank among its peers.

Technical details

Why this model

A bank's free cash flow does not mean what it means for an ordinary company. Book value, ROE and asset quality give a better frame of reference for valuing a bank.

How it works

A robust (Huber) multivariate regression estimates P/B from 3-year average ROE, log total assets, a bad-loan indicator and 3-year credit growth, after limiting extreme observations. Only banks the market prices on their earnings enter the fit (positive ROE, P/B at most 3.0×). The fitted P/B is multiplied by book value per share. A weak fit (R² below 0.4), a fit where higher ROE does not mean a higher P/B, and large state-owned banks use the peer median P/B adjusted for ROE.

Best for

Commercial banks where book value represents real economic assets and ROE reflects sustainable profitability.

Model Inputs

Avg ROE→6.78%

Valuation method: Peer regression
Bank peer-model fit (R²): 0.4578
Fit observations: 25

R² describes how well the shared bank-peer regression explains P/B variation in its fitted sample. Banks using the same regression share this statistic. Forecast performance is evaluated separately through backtests.

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→9.400

Calibrated value vs last close→+15.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

10.883

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Profitability & book value6.78%regression type: huber multifactorfallback used: no

Cross-sectional featuresr squared: 0.46n obs: 25

PGB among Banks

Every stock in the sector, PGB marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is PGB. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)	·	326	225	229	332	185	221	241	254	182	177	220	193	176
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	298	248	277	289	295	186	170	177	184	167	189	199	208
Tangible fixed assets	·	245	200	223	238	250	163	145	152	159	142	160	170	180
Intagible fixed assets	·	53	48	54	51	45	24	25	26	26	25	29	29	28
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	8	46	49
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	11	50	56
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−0.04	−0.04	−0.04	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	−3	−5	−7
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	88,840	73,015	55,491	48,991	40,521	36,153	31,574	29,900	29,298	24,825	24,681	25,779	24,876
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	82,295	67,849	50,627	44,407	36,340	32,223	27,814	26,213	25,738	21,329	21,309	22,440	21,666
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	6,545	5,166	4,864	4,585	4,181	3,930	3,760	3,687	3,560	3,495	3,373	3,339	3,210
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	5,500	4,200	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	658	646	1,486	1,267	902	676	518	463	346	300	184	162	38
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	88,840	73,015	55,491	48,991	40,521	36,153	31,574	29,900	29,298	24,825	24,681	25,779	24,876
Balances with the SBV	·	2,476	2,197	1,602	855	1,031	630	1,173	1,922	1,375	598	788	535	588
Placements with and loans to other credit institutions	·	28,352	23,802	14,270	11,041	7,495	5,850	1,862	252	1,070	1,192	2,614	6,113	6,451
Derivatives and other financial liabilities	·	185	2	1	14	2	2	6	13	16	30	0.3	7	2
Loans and advances to customers, net	·	45,781	40,812	34,983	28,768	27,256	25,449	23,442	21,827	21,193	17,359	15,705	14,334	13,680
Loans and advances to customers	·	46,341	41,236	35,335	29,051	27,499	25,675	23,697	22,052	21,421	17,534	15,883	14,507	13,867
Less: Provision for losses on loans and advances to customers	·	−559	−425	−352	−283	−243	−227	−255	−225	−228	−175	−178	−173	−187
Investment Securities	·	9,685	4,251	2,933	3,266	3,122	2,402	3,248	3,869	3,904	4,241	4,100	3,364	2,912
Available-for Sales Securities	·	8,144	1,937	2,226	2,539	2,515	2,145	2,636	2,821	2,511	2,501	2,413	2,325	2,215
Held-to-Maturity Securities	·	2,098	2,739	949	952	708	575	1,374	1,806	2,229	2,229	2,069	1,252	752
Less: Provision for diminution in value of investment securities	·	−557	−426	−242	−224	−101	−317	−762	−758	−837	−489	−382	−213	−55
Other Assets	·	1,114	1,183	1,172	1,226	1,131	1,410	1,428	1,583	1,370	1,057	1,032	989	811
Due to Gov and borrowings from SBV	·	972	419	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52	0	0
Deposits and borrowings from other credit institutions	·	28,485	20,661	13,568	10,941	7,105	2,842	1,900	1,400	2,417	2,727	4,115	4,046	7,458
Deposits from customers	·	48,460	43,326	35,730	31,260	28,075	28,738	25,388	23,345	22,877	18,297	16,865	18,004	13,861
Funds received from Gov, international and other institutions	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28	22	52	85	117
Convertible bonds/CDs and other valuable papers issued	·	3,200	2,280	500	500	500	0	0	1,000	0	0	0	0	0
Other liabilities	·	1,178	1,164	829	1,706	660	643	526	468	415	283	225	305	229
Capital	·	5,499	4,200	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000	3,000
Reserves	·	388	320	378	318	279	254	242	223	214	195	189	177	171

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Sharpe

−1.29

Negative

Composite

50 to 69

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✓Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✓OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✗No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.74×Interest Burden0.24×Op. Margin0.30×Turnover0.03×Leverage7.75=ROE1.2%

Price Risk

Momentum

−24.4%

Volatility

22.3%

Max Drawdown

−34.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

1.27P/B

P/E: 14.28
ROE: 9.9%
ROA: 0.7%
EPS: 852
BVPS: 9.603
Net Margin: 23.5%
Rev Growth: +35.3%
Profit Growth: +80.9%
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 883M
Charter Capital: 8,827B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Ngân hàng
Industry (ICB L3): Ngân hàng
Sub-industry: Ngân hàng
Company Type: NH

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Quốc Tế Cường Phát

Inst

9.2%

67.3M

2026-07-27

Công ty Cổ phần Thương Mại Vũ Anh Đức

Inst

9.1%

61.7M

2026-02-02

Công ty TNHH Xuất Nhập Khẩu Và Phát Triển Thương Mại Gia Linh

Inst

8.9%

60.5M

2026-02-02

Lê Minh Quốc

Indiv

4.7%

14.0M

2020-12-18

Đinh Thành Nghiệp

Indiv

0.8%

6.1M

2026-07-27

Board & Management

Đinh Thành Nghiệp0.8%

Member of Management Board

Nguyễn Mạnh Hải

Department Director

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

Sale registrations: None
Purchase registrations: 4 by 2 traders; 9,554,722 shares
Registered net, share of outstanding:: +1.08%

Nguyễn Bạch Mai
Purchase · Related person
162,791
2026-01-10
Đinh Thành Nghiệp
Purchase · Insider
4,614,570
2026-01-10
Nguyễn Bạch Mai
Purchase · Related person
162,791
2025-11-20
Đinh Thành Nghiệp
Purchase · Insider
4,614,570
2025-11-20

Insiders, large holders and related persons register a trade before they make it. A registration is not an executed trade, and a holder that did not trade often registers again.

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Also note

12-month sector-relative outlook

Valuation Breakdown

PGB among Banks

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months

PGB among Banks

Ownership network

Director-deal registrations · 12 months