Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.975
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 5.8492nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%20th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5328 (79th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.11, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and a recent move in the score. Earnings-quality model output is poor (10.1/100) driven by very weak cash conversion and receivables quality (both 0.0/100) and low accruals quality (40.6/100). Other solvency/health indicators are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.34 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -1.5328 (79th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +3.11): measures the probability of earnings manipulation signals; percentile and sharp YoY rise show the company scores more aggressively on the composite manipulative indicators than most Vietnamese companies and has moved materially year-over-year.
- DSRI 2.0066: measures days-sales-in-receivables index (possible revenue/receivables recognition pressure). A DSRI ~2.0 signals receivables or revenue recognition changed relative to sales.
- SGAI 2.9710: measures sales-general & admin expense growth relative to sales. A SGAI near 3.0 indicates SG&A grew much faster than sales, which can distort margins or hide other issues.
- AQI 1.6917 and TATA 0.1728 (components of Beneish): AQI >1 measures asset quality deterioration and TATA >0 measures total accruals to total assets; these signal asset composition changes and positive accruals respectively.
- Very poor earnings-quality composite (10.1/100) and component failures: cash conversion 0.0/100 and receivables quality 0.0/100 — indicates reported profits have not converted into cash and receivables-related measures are weak.
- Three-year cash conversion ratio 5.84 (92nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials): operating cash flow over net profit of 5.84 is very low (ranked high percentile), meaning profits have not translated into cash over the last three years.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle only 0.4% of total assets (20th percentile): the company has a low level of prepayments/loans/other long-term receivables relative to peers, reducing one common source of off-cycle receivables risk.
- No accumulated losses and parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025; owner’s equity (parent) is positive: the company’s published equity and retained earnings are not showing statutory distress.
- Altman Z-Score 2.34 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9: neither indicates imminent failure; Z-Score is not in the distress zone and F-Score is neutral, suggesting some operational and profitability signals are acceptable.
Ownership is concentrated: ASP (Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Dầu khí An Pha) holds 40.7% (significant influence), and two individuals together hold 44.0% (Nguyễn Anh Tú 28.7%, Trương Hữu Phước 15.3%), indicating a tightly held register with potential for controlling influence by large blocks. No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided.
- Compare the FY2025 operating cash flow and the parent net profit line in the cash flow statement and the notes to explain the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 5.84).
- Reconcile trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables in the balance sheet with the related-party and other receivables notes to verify the 0.4% of total assets 'receivables outside the trade cycle' figure.
- Review the audit report and the statement of changes in equity (parent company/owners’ equity note) to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive.
- Inspect the SG&A schedule and revenue notes (sales breakdown and accounting policies) to understand drivers of SGAI = 2.9710 (SG&A growth relative to sales) and any classification or timing differences affecting margins.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.80
- P/S
- 0.43
- ROE
- 3.5%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 419
- BVPS
- 11.526
- Gross Margin
- 10.1%
- Net Margin
- 1.9%
- D/E
- 0.02
- Current Ratio
- 1.74
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.91
- Div Yield
- 10.9%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.4M
- Charter Capital
- 105B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Nước & Khí đốt
- Sub-industry
- Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
- Company Type
- CT