Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 14.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 16.932
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.0923rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.6%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows several accounting-area concerns despite a strong bankruptcy-distance (Altman Z-Score 12.76). The Beneish M-Score is 0.439 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), driven by a very high AQI (8.9353) and other components (DEPI 1.6928, SGAI 6.1006), while year-over-year the M-Score fell by 6.01 points. Cash-conversion and margin/revenue quality metrics are weak (three-year cash conversion 0.09; Earnings Quality 34.6/100 with margin and revenue quality 0/100).
- Beneish M-Score = 0.439 (measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation using 8 ratios); this score sits at the 95th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score moved down by -6.01 year-over-year (the direction and percentile are more relevant than the absolute -1.78 US cutoff).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 8.9353 (measures increases in non-current and potentially write-off-prone assets such as ‘other receivables’, prepayments, intangibles); such a high AQI is a primary driver of the M-Score.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 6.1006 (measures increase in SG&A relative to sales); elevated SGAI can indicate expense capitalization or shifting of costs.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.6928 (measures a slowing of depreciation relative to asset base), which can inflate earnings by reducing depreciation expense.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1885 (measures accruals relative to assets); positive and material accruals indicate earnings not fully backed by cash flows.
- Earnings Quality = 34.6/100 (measures overall reliability of reported earnings); subcomponents show very weak cash conversion (22.0/100) and zero scores for margin quality and revenue quality (0.0/100), indicating concerns about sustainability and composition of reported profits.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.09 (measures how much reported profit converts into operating cash over three years); this is at the 23rd percentile versus Vietnamese non-financial peers, indicating profits have converted poorly to cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 7.6% of total assets (measures prepayments, loans receivable, other long-term receivables); this is at the 75th percentile among Vietnamese peers, aligning with the high AQI and suggesting growth in non-trade receivables or prepayments.
- Altman Z-Score = 12.76 (measures distance from bankruptcy; this is squarely in the 'safe' zone and indicates low bankruptcy risk by the Altman model).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental accounting signals; a mid score indicating a neutral to mixed fundamental profile).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures composition and collectability of trade receivables); this suggests trade receivables themselves appear of good quality in the data feeding this score.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) is positive and parent net loss occurrences = 0 years up to FY2025 (these are factual statements about retained earnings and profit history).
The top five holders are concentrated: the state shareholder Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước holds 22.9%, and four individuals together hold 56.2% (Dương Vinh Quang 19.4%, Đường Quang Huấn 18.6%, Lê Vân Anh 10.9%, Đào Thị Kim Oanh 7.3%). Director-deal disclosures for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations (535,800 shares by 2 traders) and 7 purchase registrations (200,000 shares recorded across 4 traders, with 5 registrations lacking a volume); these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the line items that compose AQI: reconcile the FY2025 note on 'other receivables', 'prepayments' and 'long-term receivables' with the balance-sheet movement that produced AQI = 8.9353.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit across the last three annual cash-flow statements to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio = 0.09 and identify which year(s) drove the shortfall.
- Inspect the fixed-asset note and depreciation policy to verify the inputs that produce DEPI = 1.6928 (changes in useful lives, depreciation methods, or gross/net carrying amounts).
- Compare the SG&A note and revenue schedule to validate SGAI = 6.1006 and to see whether SG&A increases relate to one-off items, capitalization, or recurring operating costs.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.18
- P/S
- 0.54
- ROE
- 43.6%
- ROA
- 33.0%
- EPS
- 6.060
- BVPS
- 19.232
- Gross Margin
- 74.3%
- Net Margin
- 14.3%
- D/E
- 0.03
- Current Ratio
- 4.52
- Rev Growth
- +22.6%
- Profit Growth
- +557.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.25
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.8M
- Charter Capital
- 48.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng cá nhân
- Company Type
- CT