Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.498
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 5.7692nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.7%46th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of elevated accrual-based and anomaly-driven measures: a Beneish M-Score of 1.7478 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +4.46) and an AQI component of 10.0000 are the most prominent. At the same time, cash-generation measures are weak (three‑year cash conversion = 5.76, 92nd percentile) while receivables outside the trade cycle are small (1.7% of total assets). The Altman Z‑Score is 1.33 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score = 1.7478. The M‑Score is a composite that flags unusual accounting manipulations; relative to Vietnamese peers this score ranks in the 97th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting than peers). Note the US cutoff of -1.78 is not fully calibrated to Vietnam and ~28% of Vietnamese stocks exceed it, so peer percentile and YoY trend are important.
- Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = +4.46. A large positive change indicates the company’s Beneish signals have moved materially compared with the prior year (consecutive‑year M‑Scores have low correlation, so trajectory is a secondary cue).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000. AQI measures change in non‑current assets and other asset reclassifications; a high AQI suggests increases in asset‑type items that often accompany aggressive accounting.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.5483. DEPI > 1 signals lower depreciation expense relative to prior year (or changes in useful lives/policies) that can inflate reported profits.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.0718 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2128. Together these show revenue is growing (SGI >1) while SGA expenses are also rising; the pattern can indicate margin management or investment in growth that merits scrutiny.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0866. A positive TATA indicates accruals added to profit (accruals are 8.66% of assets), which reduces cash‑basis quality of earnings.
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.33 (distress zone). The Z‑Score estimates distance to bankruptcy based on balance‑sheet metrics; 1.33 lies in the distress range used by the model.
- Earnings‑quality Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and three‑year cash conversion ratio = 5.76 (92nd percentile). Operating cash flow is a small fraction of reported profit over three years, indicating profit has not converted into cash.
- AQI component and cash/receivable pattern together: high AQI (10.0000) with poor cash conversion raises a concern that asset recognition or reclassification and accruals may be supporting reported earnings rather than cash flows.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.7% of total assets (46th percentile). This is a relatively small share of assets compared with Vietnamese peers, suggesting limited exposure to long‑dated receivables, prepayments to suppliers or loans classified as receivables.
- Receivables quality score = 100.0/100. The model rates receivables recognition and collectability signals as strong.
- Accrued earnings / accumulated losses: no accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive. The company has not reported a statutory accumulated loss in the published statements.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9. This is a neutral score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/structure, operating efficiency), meaning some standard operational metrics are neither strongly positive nor deeply negative.
Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest shareholder is an individual, Dương Xuân Quang, with 23.3%; state‑linked Tổng Công ty LICOGI holds 8.5%; three other individuals hold 7.8%, 5.5% and 5.1%. The top five together hold ~50.2% (23.3 + 8.5 + 7.8 + 5.5 + 5.1 = 50.2%). This mix combines a dominant individual owner with a notable institutional (LICOGI) stake and several other insiders; registrations show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration by insiders in the year to 2026‑10‑30 (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the 2025 line‑item for ‘Other long‑term receivables / Loans to related parties / Prepayments’ in the balance sheet/schedules with the note that breaks down receivables by related party and maturity to confirm the 1.7% of total assets figure and the nature of those balances.
- Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow statement, net cash from operating activities) to parent net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the three‑year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 5.76) and inspect the components of working capital changes.
- Inspect the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset notes for changes in useful lives, revaluations, additions or reclassifications and calculate year‑over‑year depreciation expense to validate DEPI = 1.5483 and the AQI = 10.0000 signal.
- Review the related‑party transactions note and the schedule of transactions with holders and the listed group (if any) to see whether recurrent receivables, advances, or service/management fees appear between the company and LICOGI or other top shareholders.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.32
- P/S
- 0.07
- ROE
- 3.5%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- EPS
- 483
- BVPS
- 14.044
- Gross Margin
- 6.1%
- Net Margin
- 0.8%
- D/E
- 1.45
- Current Ratio
- 1.15
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.22
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 6.7M
- Charter Capital
- 67.4B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT