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L12

Công ty Cổ phần Licogi 12

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
4.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
4.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.498

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→22.50B
Fair EV/EBITDA→7.7x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.498
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA22.5 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·342278282281251233243250191130185323296
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·201410.931818228273329
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·03000.20.20.20.20.20.270.20.2
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·16614614915813811713015612684140214151
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·736271028141747
Net Inventories
·15111312911910594110844033762108
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·15111312911910594110844033762108
Other current assets
·52234322344138
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000087
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·565160891081051021001101411696274
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000016436800
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.20.10.0700
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·51515971777471697687896273
Tangible fixed assets
·47485969757471697687893545
Leased assets
·330.51200000000
Intagible fixed assets
·1000000000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0.10.10.1183131313116530.11
Investment in joint ventures
·0000000000001
Investments in associate companies
·0001831313131162166
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1410.10.1
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00000000000−6−6
Other non-current assets
·40.030.30.40.20002590.010
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·40.030.30.40.20002590.010
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·398330341370359337345350300271354385370
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·304238252282270250258262212205288318308
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·298230238256247232240250178128166314299
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1349211216914412984985652354495
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·753820712123810243184038
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·68142624181812347712159
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·36721371592233059
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·95918988888787888966666562
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·95918988888787888966666562
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·70707070707070707050505050
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·111111111111111111111053
Other Reserves
·0.30.30.30.30.30.40.60.500000
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·118655440.0163466
Minority Interest
·0000000000010
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·398330341370359337345350300271354385370
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000000000.600
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·70707070707070707050505050
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0000000400000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
52
Fair
Accrual Quality
65
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
51

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.75 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.46
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.937
GMI
1.044
AQI
10.000
SGI
1.213
DEPI
1.548
SGAI
1.072
TATA
0.087
LVGI
1.057

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
5.7692nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
1.7%46th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows several accounting signals of elevated accrual-based and anomaly-driven measures: a Beneish M-Score of 1.7478 (97th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +4.46) and an AQI component of 10.0000 are the most prominent. At the same time, cash-generation measures are weak (three‑year cash conversion = 5.76, 92nd percentile) while receivables outside the trade cycle are small (1.7% of total assets). The Altman Z‑Score is 1.33 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F‑Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = 1.7478. The M‑Score is a composite that flags unusual accounting manipulations; relative to Vietnamese peers this score ranks in the 97th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting than peers). Note the US cutoff of -1.78 is not fully calibrated to Vietnam and ~28% of Vietnamese stocks exceed it, so peer percentile and YoY trend are important.
  • Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = +4.46. A large positive change indicates the company’s Beneish signals have moved materially compared with the prior year (consecutive‑year M‑Scores have low correlation, so trajectory is a secondary cue).
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000. AQI measures change in non‑current assets and other asset reclassifications; a high AQI suggests increases in asset‑type items that often accompany aggressive accounting.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.5483. DEPI > 1 signals lower depreciation expense relative to prior year (or changes in useful lives/policies) that can inflate reported profits.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.0718 and SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2128. Together these show revenue is growing (SGI >1) while SGA expenses are also rising; the pattern can indicate margin management or investment in growth that merits scrutiny.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0866. A positive TATA indicates accruals added to profit (accruals are 8.66% of assets), which reduces cash‑basis quality of earnings.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 1.33 (distress zone). The Z‑Score estimates distance to bankruptcy based on balance‑sheet metrics; 1.33 lies in the distress range used by the model.
  • Earnings‑quality Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and three‑year cash conversion ratio = 5.76 (92nd percentile). Operating cash flow is a small fraction of reported profit over three years, indicating profit has not converted into cash.
  • AQI component and cash/receivable pattern together: high AQI (10.0000) with poor cash conversion raises a concern that asset recognition or reclassification and accruals may be supporting reported earnings rather than cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.7% of total assets (46th percentile). This is a relatively small share of assets compared with Vietnamese peers, suggesting limited exposure to long‑dated receivables, prepayments to suppliers or loans classified as receivables.
  • Receivables quality score = 100.0/100. The model rates receivables recognition and collectability signals as strong.
  • Accrued earnings / accumulated losses: no accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive. The company has not reported a statutory accumulated loss in the published statements.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9. This is a neutral score on fundamentals (profitability, leverage/structure, operating efficiency), meaning some standard operational metrics are neither strongly positive nor deeply negative.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated: the largest shareholder is an individual, Dương Xuân Quang, with 23.3%; state‑linked Tổng Công ty LICOGI holds 8.5%; three other individuals hold 7.8%, 5.5% and 5.1%. The top five together hold ~50.2% (23.3 + 8.5 + 7.8 + 5.5 + 5.1 = 50.2%). This mix combines a dominant individual owner with a notable institutional (LICOGI) stake and several other insiders; registrations show 0 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration by insiders in the year to 2026‑10‑30 (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the 2025 line‑item for ‘Other long‑term receivables / Loans to related parties / Prepayments’ in the balance sheet/schedules with the note that breaks down receivables by related party and maturity to confirm the 1.7% of total assets figure and the nature of those balances.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow (cash flow statement, net cash from operating activities) to parent net profit for FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the three‑year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 5.76) and inspect the components of working capital changes.
  • Inspect the fixed‑asset and intangible‑asset notes for changes in useful lives, revaluations, additions or reclassifications and calculate year‑over‑year depreciation expense to validate DEPI = 1.5483 and the AQI = 10.0000 signal.
  • Review the related‑party transactions note and the schedule of transactions with holders and the listed group (if any) to see whether recurrent receivables, advances, or service/management fees appear between the company and LICOGI or other top shareholders.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.33
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.17
Positive
Composite
54
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.82×Interest Burden0.98×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover1.07×Leverage4.21=ROE3.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
+25.0%
Volatility
72.9%
Max Drawdown
−33.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.31P/E
P/B
0.32
P/S
0.07
ROE
3.5%
ROA
0.9%
EPS
483
BVPS
14.044
Gross Margin
6.1%
Net Margin
0.8%
D/E
1.45
Current Ratio
1.15
EV/EBITDA
8.22
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
6.7M
Charter Capital
67.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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