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CKD

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí Đông Anh Licogi

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCông nghiệp nặngUPCOMCT
21.000
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
21.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
22.790

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghiệp nặng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Công nghiệp nặng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→42.19B
Fair EV/EBITDA→22.7x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→21.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
22.790
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA42.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,192986839681605674622665664555545486
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2453977313108126452732577863
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2115131116110020000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·577384470321308430402418409290253200
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·485015974712251076
Net Inventories
·156152261228182115173216201207208208
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·162162269235189124179218206210209208
Other current assets
·2142722421515
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·355228231234245260271281249255271261
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·17251546374881018874828777
Tangible fixed assets
·17251546374881018874808577
Leased assets
·000000000220
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·159159159159159159159159159159159159
Investments in associate companies
·159159159159159159159159159159159159
Other non-current assets
·1714910111111121312235
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·1714910111111121312235
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,5471,2141,070914851934893946913809816747
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·966677563416359453464509492468490430
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·891674562415354444447483485458479401
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·533402327272233260263349256256284272
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·16112281922221897355111
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·754225918266101129
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·730.9002612206101129
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·581537506498492481429437421341327317
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·581537506498492481429437421341327317
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·310310310310310310310310310310310310
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1491249386716359483930166
Other Reserves
·0.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.8
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·122102102101110107597871000
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,5471,2141,070914851934893946913809816747
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·2812323473155657171000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·310310310310310310310310310310310310

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
21
Poor
Accrual Quality
53
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.21 · 85th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.95
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.457
GMI
1.222
AQI
0.810
SGI
1.030
DEPI
2.542
SGAI
0.733
TATA
0.128
LVGI
1.121

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.1825th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
4.9%67th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2079 (85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.95, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially over one year. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (20.7/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100), receivables quality (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100). Altman Z-Score is 1.88 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, both consistent with elevated operational and financial stress signals.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.2079 (85th percentile vs VN peers). The M-Score combines eight ratio-based signals of earnings manipulation; at this level the company is more aggressive than ~85% of Vietnamese peers. The M-Score rose by +1.95 year-over-year, showing a notable one-year shift in the underlying ratios.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.4575. This measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 suggests receivables rising relative to sales); here it indicates receivables growth outpacing revenue.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.5419. This measures whether reported depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior periods (a value >1 can indicate slower depreciation or changes to useful lives that inflate profit); the very high DEPI suggests potential non-standard depreciation patterns.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1283. This measures the accrual component of earnings; a positive value of 12.83% of assets indicates sizeable accruals relative to asset base (earnings less cash flows).
  • Earnings-Quality Score = 20.7/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. The three-year operating cash flow / net profit (cash conversion) = 0.18 (25th percentile), meaning profit has not translated into cash (only 0.18 VND of cash per 1 VND of profit on a three-year basis).
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue-related Beneish components (SGI = 1.0297, SGAI = 0.7328) show mixed signals: slight sales growth (SGI ~1.03) but a low SGAI and zero revenue-quality score indicate concerns about the sustainability/quality of reported sales.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.88 (grey zone). This places the company between healthy and distressed classification for bankruptcy distance, indicating elevated insolvency risk metrics versus safe-zone firms.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9. Low score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests, consistent with weak fundamentals.
Positive Signals
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8103. AQI <1 suggests asset quality has not deteriorated via reclassification of expenses to assets; this component does not indicate aggressive capitalization in the Beneish decomposition.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0297. Sales grew modestly (≈2.97% indexed), which is not an aggressive rapid-growth signal that sometimes accompanies manipulation.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.7328. A SGAI <1 indicates selling/admin expenses did not rise faster than sales, which can be a favorable operating-cost signal.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.9% of total assets (67th percentile). This level is moderate among Vietnamese firms—present but not among the highest shares of off-cycle receivables or related-party prepayments.
Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty LICOGI (institution) with 89.1% ownership, indicating very high ownership concentration and control by a single (likely state-related) parent. Individual shareholders hold only small stakes (largest individual 0.3%). No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the movement in 'Accounts receivable' and 'Other receivables / loans receivable' line items between FY2023–FY2025 and reconcile to the receivable ageing and related-party receivable notes.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset note for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods or significant revaluations to explain DEPI = 2.5419 and the reported depreciation expense.
  • Reconcile 'Operating cash flows' and 'Net profit' in the cash flow statement and notes to explain three-year cash conversion = 0.18; check the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations and major non-cash adjustments.
  • Examine the revenue recognition note (including contracts with customers, timing of recognition and any significant contract balances such as contract assets or contract liabilities) to address revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the DSRI = 1.4575.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.88
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.12
Negative
Composite
51
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.94×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.10×Turnover0.84×Leverage2.66=ROE20.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
−2.7%
Volatility
83.9%
Max Drawdown
−39.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.82P/E
P/B
1.22
P/S
0.55
ROE
21.7%
ROA
8.8%
EPS
3.919
BVPS
18.747
Gross Margin
8.2%
Net Margin
9.4%
D/E
1.04
Current Ratio
1.34
Rev Growth
+2.9%
Profit Growth
+24.2%
EV/EBITDA
15.97
Div Yield
9.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
31.0M
Charter Capital
310B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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