CKD
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí Đông Anh Licogi
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 21.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.790
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1825th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.9%67th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2079 (85th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.95, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially over one year. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (20.7/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100), receivables quality (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100). Altman Z-Score is 1.88 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, both consistent with elevated operational and financial stress signals.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2079 (85th percentile vs VN peers). The M-Score combines eight ratio-based signals of earnings manipulation; at this level the company is more aggressive than ~85% of Vietnamese peers. The M-Score rose by +1.95 year-over-year, showing a notable one-year shift in the underlying ratios.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 1.4575. This measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 suggests receivables rising relative to sales); here it indicates receivables growth outpacing revenue.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.5419. This measures whether reported depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior periods (a value >1 can indicate slower depreciation or changes to useful lives that inflate profit); the very high DEPI suggests potential non-standard depreciation patterns.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1283. This measures the accrual component of earnings; a positive value of 12.83% of assets indicates sizeable accruals relative to asset base (earnings less cash flows).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 20.7/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. The three-year operating cash flow / net profit (cash conversion) = 0.18 (25th percentile), meaning profit has not translated into cash (only 0.18 VND of cash per 1 VND of profit on a three-year basis).
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue-related Beneish components (SGI = 1.0297, SGAI = 0.7328) show mixed signals: slight sales growth (SGI ~1.03) but a low SGAI and zero revenue-quality score indicate concerns about the sustainability/quality of reported sales.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.88 (grey zone). This places the company between healthy and distressed classification for bankruptcy distance, indicating elevated insolvency risk metrics versus safe-zone firms.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9. Low score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests, consistent with weak fundamentals.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.8103. AQI <1 suggests asset quality has not deteriorated via reclassification of expenses to assets; this component does not indicate aggressive capitalization in the Beneish decomposition.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0297. Sales grew modestly (≈2.97% indexed), which is not an aggressive rapid-growth signal that sometimes accompanies manipulation.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 0.7328. A SGAI <1 indicates selling/admin expenses did not rise faster than sales, which can be a favorable operating-cost signal.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.9% of total assets (67th percentile). This level is moderate among Vietnamese firms—present but not among the highest shares of off-cycle receivables or related-party prepayments.
The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty LICOGI (institution) with 89.1% ownership, indicating very high ownership concentration and control by a single (likely state-related) parent. Individual shareholders hold only small stakes (largest individual 0.3%). No director-deal registrations were supplied in the data provided.
- Compare the movement in 'Accounts receivable' and 'Other receivables / loans receivable' line items between FY2023–FY2025 and reconcile to the receivable ageing and related-party receivable notes.
- Inspect the fixed-asset note for changes in useful lives, depreciation methods or significant revaluations to explain DEPI = 2.5419 and the reported depreciation expense.
- Reconcile 'Operating cash flows' and 'Net profit' in the cash flow statement and notes to explain three-year cash conversion = 0.18; check the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations and major non-cash adjustments.
- Examine the revenue recognition note (including contracts with customers, timing of recognition and any significant contract balances such as contract assets or contract liabilities) to address revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the DSRI = 1.4575.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.22
- P/S
- 0.55
- ROE
- 21.7%
- ROA
- 8.8%
- EPS
- 3.919
- BVPS
- 18.747
- Gross Margin
- 8.2%
- Net Margin
- 9.4%
- D/E
- 1.04
- Current Ratio
- 1.34
- Rev Growth
- +2.9%
- Profit Growth
- +24.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 15.97
- Div Yield
- 9.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 31.0M
- Charter Capital
- 310B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT