Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.950
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.096
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 20 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −28.911st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 9.5%80th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.0162 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th) with a year-over-year increase of +1.21, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that have moved materially this year. Key forensic indicators show mixed signals: weak cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -28.91, 1st percentile) and a low Altman Z-Score of 0.79 (distress zone), but strong receivables quality (100/100) and no accumulated statutory losses; the overall Earnings Quality score is 34.8/100.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.0162 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation; Vietnamese peer percentile 87th means this company’s score is more aggressive than 87% of VN peers; year-over-year change +1.21 shows the accounting profile has shifted materially).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = -28.91 (measures whether reported profits convert into cash; this is at the 1st percentile among VN non-financials — very low, meaning profits have not turned into operating cash over three years).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.79 (measures distance from bankruptcy; 0.79 is in the distress zone, indicating low cushion versus insolvency metrics).
- DEPI = 9.9097 (Depreciation Index; measures changes in rate of depreciation — a value this large implies material change in depreciation policy or useful lives which can inflate reported profits).
- TATA = 0.1032 (Total Accruals to Assets; measures accrual component of earnings — a positive accruals signal combined with very poor cash conversion raises concern about earnings quality).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these score components measure respectively the cash conversion of profits, stability/quality of margins, and sustainability/recurrence of revenue; zeros indicate weaknesses in those areas).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.5% of total assets (measures non-trade receivables such as prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables; at the 80th percentile among VN peers this is elevated and may reflect related-party prepayments or financing).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures how conservatively receivables are reported relative to peers; a high score suggests receivables aging, allowances or composition are not showing classic signs of revenue-stretching).
- DSRI = 0.6354 (Days Sales Receivable Index; below 1 typically implies receivables are shrinking relative to sales, reducing a common manipulation channel).
- GMI = 0.9431 (Gross Margin Index; below 1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year, which is not a typical signal of distress-driven manipulation).
- SGAI = 0.6280 (Sales, General & Admin Index; below 1 shows SG&A fell relative to sales, which can support higher reported profits without obvious accruals).
- LVGI = 0.9832 (Leverage Index; slightly below 1 indicates leverage did not increase materially year-over-year).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine accounting-based fundamentals; a neutral score suggests mixed operating and profitability signals rather than clear deterioration).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (ex-minority) positive; parent net loss years = 0 (the statements do not show statutory indicators of repeated parent losses or negative equity).
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) as amended) = none met (the audited annual statements do not meet the listed-exchange statutory loss criteria as published).
Ownership is concentrated: Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Đô Thị Hà Nội holds 60.0% and there are two other sizable individual holders (20.4% and 5.3%). The listed group holds 51.0% of H11 (control). This control concentration (major institutional 60% holder and group control of subsidiary) means related-party transactions, intra-group balances and policies set by a controlling owner are material to the company’s reported results. Director-deal disclosures show one purchase registration and zero sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions reported to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans and advances to customers/others' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 statement of financial position to the related-party note and explain any large balances (receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.5% of total assets).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the consolidated cash flow statement and the notes; quantify the components of the three-year shortfall that produce operating cash flow / net profit = -28.91 (show the exceptional items, changes in working capital, and non-cash adjustments).
- Review the notes on property, plant & equipment and depreciation policy (useful lives, changes in estimates) to explain DEPI = 9.9097 and any year-over-year change in depreciation expense or useful-life assumptions.
- Check revenue recognition and trade receivables notes: verify days sales outstanding, allowance for doubtful debts, and revenue cut-off disclosures in FY2025 to corroborate DSRI = 0.6354 and revenue-quality = 0.0/100.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.86
- P/S
- 0.31
- ROE
- 2.7%
- ROA
- 0.6%
- EPS
- 377
- BVPS
- 14.349
- Gross Margin
- 6.4%
- Net Margin
- 1.0%
- D/E
- 2.12
- Current Ratio
- 1.05
- Rev Growth
- +68.8%
- Profit Growth
- −3.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 28.88
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.0M
- Charter Capital
- 250B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT