Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 6.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.064
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.165th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.5%70th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show elevated earnings-quality and distress concerns despite no accumulated losses. The Beneish M-Score is -1.4059 (81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.30), indicating more aggressive accounting relative to most VN peers and a recent upward move. Operating cash conversion is very weak (three-year cash conversion -5.16, 5th percentile), while the Altman Z-Score is 0.82 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.4059: measures a combination of eight ratios associated with earnings manipulation; at the 81st Vietnam peer percentile this company shows more aggressive accounting metrics than about 80% of listed Vietnamese non-financial peers. Year-over-year M-Score change +1.30 indicates accounting metrics have been moving toward greater aggressiveness relative to last year.
- GMI (Gross margin index) 1.5809: GMI > 1 signals deteriorating gross margins year-over-year, which contributes to a higher M-Score and can indicate pressure on reported profits.
- SGI (Sales growth index) 1.4370: SGI > 1 shows strong sales growth (1.437x), which can create incentives to manage earnings and is one of the components pushing the M-Score up.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) 0.1042: positive TATA indicates sizeable accruals (about 10.4% of assets) which reduces earnings quality and is consistent with the low cash-conversion signal.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) -5.16 (5th percentile): measures whether reported profits convert to cash; a strongly negative ratio at the 5th percentile indicates profits have not converted into operating cash over three years.
- Altman Z-Score 0.82 (distress zone): measures distance to bankruptcy; 0.82 places the company in the classic distress zone used by Altman’s model.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9: measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a score of 3 indicates weak fundamentals overall.
- Earnings Quality overall 40.8/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100: the composite score and component lows show poor cash-realisation and margin sustainability.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 5.5% of total assets (70th percentile): indicates material non-trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables) that are higher than many peers and can obscure true trade working capital.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100: measures the quality and proportion of trade receivables; this component scores perfectly, suggesting trade receivables themselves are not an immediate concern.
- AQI (Asset quality index) 1.0000 and DEPI (Depreciation index) 1.0000: AQI = 1 indicates no deterioration in the ratio of non-current to total assets versus prior year in the Beneish inputs, and DEPI = 1 indicates no change in the effective depreciation pattern captured by Beneish's DEPI component.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) 0.8323: DSRI < 1 implies receivables are not growing faster than sales in the Beneish formulation, consistent with the high receivables-quality component.
- LVGI (Leverage index) 1.0344: modest increase in leverage (about 3.4%) rather than a large jump; not an extreme leverage signal within the M-Score drivers.
Control is concentrated: HU1 (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng HUD1) holds 51.0% (control as of 2025-12-31). A large individual shareholder (Lê Văn Bá) holds 12.0%; remaining named individuals hold 4.5% and smaller stakes. Director-deal disclosures show 2 purchase registrations and 0 sale registrations (registrations disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30), which are intentions registered with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the company's statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) for FY2023–FY2025 with the profit (parent profit) lines to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio that produced -5.16.
- Inspect the notes and schedules for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to identify the composition and ageing of the 5.5% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes to confirm the inputs behind AQI = 1.0000 and DEPI = 1.0000 (changes in non-current asset composition and depreciation policies).
- Check the related-party and balances table to see amounts, terms and counterparty identity for any loans to/from related parties or intra-group balances given the 51.0% parent HU1 ownership.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.44
- P/S
- 0.09
- ROE
- 0.9%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- EPS
- 124
- BVPS
- 13.308
- Gross Margin
- 5.8%
- Net Margin
- 0.2%
- D/E
- 2.62
- Current Ratio
- 1.14
- EV/EBITDA
- 26.10
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1.1M
- Charter Capital
- 10.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT