Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.997
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.1513th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.5%65th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The metrics show multiple accounting and cash-flow concerns for HDC: a Beneish M-Score of -0.5858 (90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) indicates relatively more aggressive accounting compared with peers and a year-over-year rise of +1.63 signals a recent upward shift in the score. Operating cash conversion is weak (three-year OCF / net profit = -1.15, 13th percentile) while the Altman Z-Score is 1.79 (in the distress zone). Together these point to earnings that are not converting into cash and deteriorating financial-health signals rather than a clean operational cash profile.
- Beneish M-Score -0.5858 (90th Vietnam peer percentile; YoY change +1.63): the M-Score measures a combination of eight ratios that indicate likelihood of earnings manipulation; HDC’s high peer-percentile and a large positive YoY change show its combined signals are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-over-year.
- DSRI = 1.5000: the Days’ Sales Receivables Index component of the M-Score measures relative growth in receivables versus sales; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales which can signal revenue-recognition pressure.
- SGAI = 2.1745: the Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; a value above 1 (and this large) indicates SG&A rose much faster than sales and can be associated with expense-capitalization or managerial smoothing.
- GMI = 1.9084: the Gross Margin Index compares current to prior gross margins; >1 implies gross margin deteriorated year-over-year, which can create incentives to manage earnings upward.
- TATA = 0.2726: Total Accruals to Total Assets is positive and elevated, indicating that accruals (nondiscretionary + discretionary) make a significant portion of reported profit; accruals quality score 17.0/100 corroborates low accruals quality.
- Cash conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = -1.15 (13th percentile): measures the ability to turn accounting profit into operating cash; this very low/negative figure shows profits have not been translated into cash flow over three years.
- Earnings Quality Score 10.9/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100; Cash conversion 0.0/100; Margin quality 0.0/100: these component scores quantify low overall earnings quality and specific weaknesses in cash conversion, margins and receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.79 (distress zone): the Z-Score combines profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity metrics to assess bankruptcy distance; 1.79 places HDC in the distress range by the Altman model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: this score of fundamental health (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) is weak, indicating few improving fundamentals.
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 14 sale registrations (7 registrants; total 1,000,000 shares, with 12 registrations listing no volume) and 8 purchase registrations (4 registrants; 3,300,000 shares). These are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades, but show active insider registration activity.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.5% of total assets (65th Vietnam percentile): this proportion (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) is moderate and is not unusually large versus peers, which reduces a concern that out-of-cycle receivables dominate the balance sheet.
- Revenue quality = 44.1/100: while not high, this is materially better than other earnings-quality components and suggests some portion of reported revenue has supporting indicators.
- AQI = 0.9361 and DEPI = 0.9706 (both <1): the Asset Quality Index and Depreciation Index values below 1 indicate the firm did not show the typical signs of increased capitalizing of costs or unusually slow depreciation compared with the prior period (AQI <1 suggests asset write-offs or lower capitalizing; DEPI <1 suggests depreciation rates rose).
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: statutory balance-sheet and profit history items are not triggering basic solvency flags in the published statements.
- SGI = 0.8357 (Sales Growth Index <1): sales grew less (or contracted) relative to the prior period, which reduces one common incentive for aggressive revenue recognition tied to rapid growth (but other M-Score components remain concerning).
Top individual shareholders are dispersed: Đoàn Hữu Thuận 9.0%, Lê Viết Liên 3.5%, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà 3.1% with no single shareholder above 10%. The listed group holds 40.0% of HUB (influence under VAS 07), indicating group ties but not majority control of that related listed entity. Director-deal registrations show insiders and related persons actively registering both buys and sells in the past year.
- Compare the year-end receivables and ‘other receivables / long-term receivables’ lines in the FY2025 audited notes to the 4.5% of total assets figure and reconcile any related-party labels or terms (maturity, interest, collateral).
- Reconcile operating cash flow (statement of cash flows) to reported net profit across FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio (-1.15) and identify the main non-cash and working-capital drivers (changes in receivables, payables, prepayments, provisions).
- Review the audit report and Note on Accounting Policies for any changes year-over-year in revenue recognition, capitalization policy or allowance methodology that would explain changes in DSRI (1.50), SGAI (2.1745) and TATA (0.2726).
- Inspect the disclosures accompanying the director-deal registrations in exchange filings to see the stated volumes, planned timing and relationship to the registrant (insider, large holder, related person) and check whether corresponding insider statements appear in subsequent disclosure windows.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.89
- P/S
- 5.66
- ROE
- 24.9%
- ROA
- 11.7%
- EPS
- 3.199
- BVPS
- 14.465
- Gross Margin
- 21.1%
- Net Margin
- 140.5%
- D/E
- 0.58
- Current Ratio
- 1.64
- Rev Growth
- −17.9%
- Profit Growth
- +867.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 422.16
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 230M
- Charter Capital
- 2,297B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT