Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.262
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- The model’s gap was capped before calibration.
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.6033rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.7%66th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.3302 (83rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.12, indicating the company's profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that accounting metrics moved materially year-on-year. Earnings-quality is low overall (36.2/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and weak accruals quality (25.3/100), while liquidity/solvency and operating fundamentals look healthy (Altman Z-Score 4.32; Piotroski F-Score 7/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.3302 (83rd percentile among Vietnamese peers): measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; the company is more aggressive than ~83% of Vietnamese peers and the M-Score rose by +1.12 year-over-year (a notable trajectory).
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2426: measures the proportion of non-current and potentially discretionary assets to total assets; a value above 1 suggests asset composition changed toward potentially less liquid or more discretionary asset categories.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2303: measures accrual intensity; a relatively large positive number indicates earnings rely substantially on accruals rather than cash flows.
- Earnings Quality overall = 36.2/100 with Accruals quality = 25.3/100 and Cash conversion = 0.0/100: these metrics measure the convertibility of reported profit to cash and the reliability of accruals; they flag that reported profits have been weak at converting into operating cash and contain low-quality accruals.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.60 (33rd percentile): this ratio shows profits are not turning into cash as well as most peers — the company sits in the lower third of Vietnamese non-financial firms on this metric.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.7% of total assets (66th percentile): the earnings-quality receivables measure is strong and the amount of receivables/prepayments/long-term receivables outside normal trade is moderate relative to peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 4.32 (safe zone): measures distance to bankruptcy; a score above the distress threshold indicates a comfortable solvency buffer.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9: measures nine fundamental signals of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency — a score of 7 indicates generally strong fundamentals.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0312 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.9603: SGI shows modest revenue growth year-on-year, while GMI < 1 suggests gross margins have improved rather than deteriorated (these help balance the aggressive-accounting signals).
The largest shareholder is Tổng Công ty Máy động lực và Máy nông nghiệp Việt Nam (institution) with 51.0%, indicating majority state- or corporate-related control. Insiders/individuals (Hoàng Công Toán 13.7%, Hà Thế Dũng 6.9%, Vương Quốc Chính 6.0%, others) hold a combined material minority stake (~27.6%), so control is concentrated and decision-making is likely aligned with the majority institutional owner.
- Compare the FY2025 'Prepayments and other receivables' line and its breakdown in the notes to the 4.7% of total assets figure to identify composition (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes to verify the drivers of the three-year cash conversion = 0.60 (33rd percentile).
- Examine the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the related-party disclosures to assess the components behind AQI = 1.2426 (changes in non-current asset mix and reclassifications).
- Check the retained earnings / accumulated losses line in the statement of changes in equity (verify 'undistributed earnings not negative') and confirm the company's listing status (UPCoM) relative to the statutory loss-test rules described.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.12
- P/S
- 0.01
- ROE
- 66.6%
- ROA
- 19.2%
- EPS
- 21.129
- BVPS
- 32.078
- Gross Margin
- 19.3%
- Net Margin
- 6.8%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.26
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 270.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.7M
- Charter Capital
- 37.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT