Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 53.100
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 56.085
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.1420th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.4%42nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals are mixed. The Beneish M-Score is -1.1655 (86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), which indicates more aggressive accounting metrics than most local peers and a year-over-year move of -0.85 that marks a material change in the score; components driving the M-Score include DSRI 1.1525 and SGAI 1.0521 (upward pressure) and TATA 0.2778 and AQI 0.9281 (downward pressure). Earnings-quality diagnostics are weak overall (15.6/100) driven by very poor revenue-quality (0.0/100) and low cash-conversion (9.7/100), while solvency and fundamentals show strength: Altman Z-Score 4.63 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.1655 (86th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The M-Score combines eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation; being at the 86th percentile means the company scores more aggressively on these ratios than 86% of Vietnamese non-financial listed peers.
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = -0.85. A large YoY move indicates a recent shift in the underlying accounting ratios (note: consecutive-year M-Scores correlate only weakly, so the trend is a secondary cue).
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 1.1525. DSRI > 1 signals receivables (or the relationship of receivables to sales) are increasing relative to prior year, which can indicate earlier revenue recognition or slower collection.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative index) = 1.0521. SGAI > 1 indicates SG&A rising faster than sales, a possible pressure on margins or discretionary expense recognition.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Cash conversion (earnings-quality subscore) = 9.7/100. Revenue-quality at 0 and very low cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit over three years = -0.14, 20th percentile) show profits are not translating into cash and recorded revenues have low quality by the applied metrics.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.2778. A low TATA (here materially below 1) indicates reported accruals are not large relative to total assets, which reduces one class of earnings-management concern.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9281 and DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.9092. AQI < 1 and DEPI < 1 suggest limited upward revaluation of asset bases or aggressive capitalization/depreciation changes that often inflate earnings; both indices here are below 1.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9852 and Altman Z-Score = 4.63 (safe zone). Leverage index just under 1 and a Z-Score of 4.63 indicate the company has distance from bankruptcy risk under the Altman model used here.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9. A midrange F-Score signals neutral/average fundamentals rather than clear deterioration in profitability, liquidity or operating efficiency.
Top shareholder is Tổng Công ty Máy động lực và Máy nông nghiệp Việt Nam (institution) holding 47.4%, indicating a concentrated ownership structure with a dominant institutional owner; the next largest individual holders are Lê Thanh Vân 3.1%, Trần Văn Thái 1.8%, Huỳnh Văn An 1.6% and Tạ Hán Beo 1.4%. The large institutional stake implies control concentration and potential group or state-linked influence in corporate decisions (as reported ownership percentages are registrations of holdings in the shareholder list).
- Compare the three-year operating cash flow / net profit reconciliation in the cash-flow statement and the notes to the applying accounting policy for revenue recognition (verify which line items or adjustments drive the FY2023–FY2025 cash conversion ratio of -0.14).
- Inspect the receivables and prepayments note (and the related-party transactions schedule) to quantify the 1.4% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to break down amounts into prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables.
- Reconcile total accruals to total assets using the balance-sheet and cash-flow statement: verify components behind TATA = 0.2778 by locating changes in working capital, provisions and non-cash adjustments in the notes.
- Read the revenue recognition disclosure and segment/sales schedules to understand what factors produce the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 score (e.g., one-off sales, timing of revenue, returns/allowances, or related-party sales) and review the notes for any significant unusual or non-recurring revenue items.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.29
- P/S
- 1.11
- ROE
- 49.8%
- ROA
- 33.8%
- EPS
- 19.841
- BVPS
- 42.504
- Gross Margin
- 10.6%
- Net Margin
- 40.1%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 2.62
- Rev Growth
- −11.2%
- Profit Growth
- +174.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 44.44
- Div Yield
- 18.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.3M
- Charter Capital
- 32.9B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT