Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 60.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 63.373
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.3518th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals are mixed: the Beneish M-Score is -0.2038 (92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +5.19, indicating that CLM’s pattern of accruals and sales-related ratios has become more aggressive relative to peers. At the same time, the company scores very low on Earnings Quality (5.5/100) with particularly weak cash-conversion and receivables measures, but it shows a large solvency buffer by the Altman Z-Score of 11.32 (safe zone) and neutral operating fundamentals with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9.
- Beneish M-Score = -0.2038 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios); company ranks in the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting compared with peers) and the M-Score rose by +5.19 year-over-year (the YoY trajectory is an additional cue).
- DSRI = 1.9435 (days’ sales receivable index; large increase can indicate revenue recognition or collection timing changes that lengthen receivables).
- DEPI = 2.5268 (depreciation index; values >1 indicate lower depreciation expense or longer useful lives relative to prior year, which can inflate profit).
- SGAI = 1.3802 (selling, general & administrative index; an increase >1 shows S,G&A growing slower than sales or changing expense recognition patterns, which can be consistent with expense management).
- TATA = 0.3348 (total accruals to total assets; a positive non-trivial TATA signals accrual-based earnings components — part of the low accruals quality score of 8.7/100).
- Earnings Quality overall = 5.5/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 (measures of how profit converts to cash and the composition/timing of receivables are very weak).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.35 (18th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low percentile means profits have not reliably converted into cash over three years).
- Altman Z-Score = 11.32 (measures distance to bankruptcy using working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value and sales; value well inside the safe zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals for improving vs deteriorating performance; a middle/neutral score).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (30th percentile among Vietnamese peers), indicating that non-trade receivables, prepayments and long-term receivables are present but not unusually large relative to peers.
- No accumulated losses, owner's equity (excluding minorities) positive, and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — these are balance-sheet and statutory outcomes consistent with ongoing solvency.
The largest shareholder is Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam (state-affiliated industrial group) with 55.4% (majority control). The next largest individual holders are 4.6%, 2.4%, 1.9% and 1.1%; insider director-deal registrations show 2 purchase registrations (70,000 shares) and 0 sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and the notes to receivables with the DSRI drivers—check the schedule or note that reconciles receivables by aging and related-party balances.
- Reconcile depreciation and useful-life disclosures in the fixed-asset note with the DEPI movement and the company’s depreciation policies (look for changes in useful lives or depreciation methods).
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the operating cash-flow reconciliation to net profit for the three-year period to confirm components producing the -0.35 cash-conversion ratio.
- Examine the related-party transactions note and the prepayments/loans schedules to verify the composition of the 0.8% 'receivables outside the trade cycle' and whether those balances are long-dated or current.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.14
- P/S
- 0.06
- ROE
- 9.7%
- ROA
- 4.9%
- EPS
- 6.874
- BVPS
- 72.835
- Gross Margin
- 2.4%
- Net Margin
- 0.5%
- D/E
- 0.62
- Current Ratio
- 1.80
- Rev Growth
- −6.7%
- Profit Growth
- −50.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.22
- Div Yield
- 2.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 14.5M
- Charter Capital
- 145B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Khai khoáng
- Sub-industry
- Khai thác Than
- Company Type
- CT