Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.438
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.638th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.4%21st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.8538 (89th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.39, signalling relatively more aggressive accounting metrics versus Vietnamese comparators though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly applicable. Several earnings-quality sub-scores are concerning: DSRI 1.6898 and AQI 2.1516 point to revenue/receivable anomalies and asset-quality changes, TATA 0.1716 is low (cash-based earnings stronger), while the three-year cash-conversion ratio is -2.63 (8th percentile) showing profits are not converting to cash. The Altman Z-Score is 2.01 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -0.8538 (89th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.39) — the company scores higher on the M-Score relative to most Vietnamese peers and the score has moved materially year over year.
- DSRI (days-sales receivable index) = 1.6898 — this measures how receivables have grown relative to sales; a value well above 1 suggests receivables or revenue recognition have stretched compared with sales.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 2.1516 — this measures growth in non-current and potentially non-cash assets (e.g., capitalised costs, long-term receivables); a value above 1.2–1.5 is often a signal of rising capitalisation or reclassification.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.63 (8th percentile) — profit has not translated into operating cash and is very weak versus Vietnamese peers.
- Earnings Quality components: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100 — both sub-scores indicate poor cash-realisation and receivable characteristics in the scoring framework used.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.1716 — this measures accrual intensity (higher values indicate earnings driven by accruals); 17.16% is notable for accrual reliance.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.01 (grey zone) — the company's distance-to-distress metric sits between safe and distressed, indicating some financial vulnerability on a multi-factor basis.
- GMI (gross margin index) = 0.9181 — a value below 1 indicates gross margins have improved year-over-year rather than deteriorated, which weakens the case for margin-driven manipulation.
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.7302 — below 1 implies reported depreciation expense rose relative to prior period, which reduces the incentive to inflate earnings via lower depreciation.
- SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 1.2174 — while >1 (increased SG&A relative to sales), the SG&A movement is moderate compared with the larger AQI and DSRI signals.
- LVGI (leverage index) = 0.9726 — slightly below 1, indicating leverage has not meaningfully increased year-over-year in the index measure used.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 — a neutral score showing mixed fundamental signals rather than clear operational deterioration.
Ownership is concentrated: a state/industry single-member company (Công ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Tổng Công ty Cao Su Đồng Nai) holds 29.0%, with two related listed rubber-sector shareholders (HRC 12.5%, ST8 4.8%) also significant. Insiders (named individuals) hold small stakes (2.6% and 1.7%). The structure suggests group and sector-aligned ownership rather than dispersed retail control.
- Compare FY2025 trade receivables and other receivables lines (and their ageing) with the revenue note to reconcile the DSRI-driven receivable growth (DSRI = 1.6898).
- Inspect the fixed assets, construction-in-progress and long-term receivables schedules to identify components driving AQI = 2.1516 (capitalised costs, related-party loans, or reclassifications).
- Reconcile the consolidated statement of cash flows to profit before tax for the last three years to validate the three-year cash conversion ratio = -2.63 and identify the non-cash or working-capital items causing the gap.
- Review the parent-company (owner’s equity and undistributed earnings) lines and the statutory notes to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that the company’s listing on UPCoM is consistent with the statutory-loss test commentary (the HOSE/HNX cancellation rule does not apply to UPCoM).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.36
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 5.4%
- ROA
- 1.7%
- EPS
- 652
- BVPS
- 12.044
- Gross Margin
- 9.8%
- Net Margin
- 1.3%
- D/E
- 1.23
- Current Ratio
- 1.46
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.82
- Div Yield
- 14.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 2.1M
- Charter Capital
- 21.3B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT