VRG
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Đô thị và Khu Công nghiệp Cao Su Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 13.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.933
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.7771st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 10.4%82nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show mixed concerns: the Beneish M-Score is -1.6134 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year fall of -0.40, indicating more aggressive accounting than most Vietnam peers and a deterioration vs last year. Earnings-quality is weak overall (31.2/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (0.0/100), while accruals quality is relatively high (83.1/100). Other health metrics are also strained: Altman Z-Score 1.37 (in the distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.6134 (measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation behaviors); company ranks in the 77th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and M-Score moved by -0.40 year-over-year (the trajectory signal). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not fully transferable to Vietnam; peer percentile and YoY change are emphasised.
- DSRI = 1.1974 (Days Sales Receivables Index; measures relative growth in receivables versus sales — values >1 suggest receivables growing faster than sales).
- GMI = 1.4966 (Gross Margin Index; >1 indicates deterioration in gross margins vs prior year).
- SGAI = 1.1149 (Sales, General & Administrative Index; >1 indicates SG&A growing faster than sales).
- TATA = 0.0422 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accrual magnitude — positive but moderate here, note accruals-quality score is high so accruals appear consistent).
- Earnings-quality: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (measures ability to convert reported profit into operating cash flow over three years) and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures persistence and cash backing of revenue) — both flag weak cash realization relative to reported profits.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.77 (71st percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low conversion implies profits are not being turned into cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 10.4% of total assets (82nd percentile); this line captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a relatively large share of assets outside standard trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.37 (measures distance to bankruptcy; score in the distress zone indicates elevated financial distress risk by the Z-Score model).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a 4 is neutral-to-weak on fundamentals).
- Accruals quality = 83.1/100 (measures how consistent and conservative accruals appear; a relatively high score suggests reported earnings are not dominated by volatile accrual adjustments).
- DEPI = 1.0000 (Depreciation Index; ~1 suggests no material change in depreciation policy or capitalisation affecting earnings recognition).
- AQI = 1.0222 (Asset Quality Index; close to 1 indicates no large one-off asset capitalization spikes compared with prior year).
- LVGI = 0.7669 (Leverage Index; <1 can indicate leverage did not increase materially relative to prior year).
- Director-deal registrations: only 1 purchase registration (10,000 shares) and 0 sale registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30; net registered volume = +0.04% of shares outstanding (registrations are declarations of intent to trade, not executed trades).
- No accumulated losses and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss streak = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (these are statutory balance-sheet facts).
Ownership is concentrated in institutional and state-linked entities: Công ty Cổ Phần Xây Dựng Incontec 20.0%, Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam 15.1%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển Đô Thị An Lộc 8.2%, TRC (Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Tây Ninh) 6.8%, and Tổng Công ty Cao Su Đồng Nai (single-member LLC) 5.5%. This structure implies significant influence from a few large shareholders, including state-related groups (rubber industry conglomerates). Director-deal registrations are minimal (one purchase registration), and registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange rather than executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) for 'Prepayments to suppliers', 'Loans receivable' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 statement of financial position to the related-party note(s) to determine how much of the 10.4% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle are group or related-party balances.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit across the management discussion or cash-flow note for FY2023–FY2025 to verify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit ratio of 1.77 and identify the main timing or non-cash items driving the 0.0/100 cash-conversion score.
- Review the revenue recognition policy note and the revenue breakdown/schedule in FY2025 to assess items behind the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 score (e.g., one-off sales, long-term contracts, or significant returns/allowances).
- Inspect the auditors' report and any related-party disclosure notes for FY2025 for transactions with the largest shareholders or group entities (given the concentrated ownership and presence of state-related rubber groups).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.98
- P/S
- 2.57
- ROE
- 9.5%
- ROA
- 3.7%
- EPS
- 1.390
- BVPS
- 13.521
- Gross Margin
- 61.8%
- Net Margin
- 26.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 5.39
- Rev Growth
- +17.9%
- Profit Growth
- −38.7%
- EV/EBITDA
- 2.44
- Div Yield
- 26.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.9M
- Charter Capital
- 259B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT