BAF
Công ty Cổ phần Nông nghiệp BAF Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 30.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 29.496
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −4.396th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.4%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive reporting versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.3536 (82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers) and a year-over-year rise in M-Score of +1.47, driven mainly by a high DSRI of 1.7897 and SGAI of 1.7072. Earnings-quality metrics are weak (overall Earnings Quality Score 12.3/100) while solvency and fundamental scores are concerning (Altman Z-Score 1.56 in the distress zone; Piotroski F‑Score 2/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.3536 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns from financial ratios); the company ranks at the 82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting patterns than most peers in Vietnam.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +1.47 (measures the trajectory of manipulation‑related ratios); a large positive change signals accounting metrics moved materially versus the prior year.
- DSRI 1.7897 (Days Sales Receivable Index — measures growth in receivables relative to sales); a value well above 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- SGAI 1.7072 (Sales, General & Admin expense Index — measures SG&A growth relative to sales); a large increase implies SG&A rose substantially versus sales, which can distort margins or indicate cost capitalization/management issues.
- TATA 0.1398 (Total Accruals to Total Assets — measures accrual-based earnings vs cash); a positive accruals ratio of 13.98% of assets indicates earnings contain sizable accrual components rather than cash.
- Earnings Quality Score 12.3/100 with near-zero sub-scores for cash conversion, receivables quality, margin quality and revenue quality (all 0.0/100) — collectively these measure how much reported profit is supported by cash flows, receivable collectibility, stable margins and repeatable revenue; the zeroes indicate weak or non-supportive signals across those dimensions.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) -4.39 (6th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; measures profit turning into cash); a negative and very low percentile means profits have not been converting to operating cash over three years.
- Altman Z-Score 1.56 (measures bankruptcy distance); this places the company in the distress zone, indicating higher financial distress risk under the Z-Score framework.
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (measures nine fundamentals of profitability, leverage/liquidity and operating efficiency); a 2 indicates weak recent fundamental performance.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 7.4% of total assets (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers; measures prepayments, loans to related parties and non-trade receivables); a relatively high share suggests material non‑trade asset items that warrant line‑item scrutiny.
- GMI 0.9382 (Gross Margin Index — measures decline in gross margin; values below 1 indicate gross margins improved year-over-year), suggesting gross margin was stable or improved rather than deteriorating.
- DEPI 0.9527 (Depreciation Index — measures changes in depreciation policy; below 1 suggests depreciation expense increased relative to asset base rather than being reduced to inflate earnings), which is not consistent with aggressive lengthening of asset lives.
- AQI 1.0436 and LVGI 1.0511 (Asset quality and leverage growth indices) are close to 1, indicating no extreme movements in capitalized asset composition or leverage compared with some other firms.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (exclusive of minority interest) positive; the statutory loss tests under Vietnamese Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met, and the parent reported no consecutive-year net loss up to FY2025 — these are factual signals of solvency in the published statements.
Ownership is concentrated: Siba Holdings (institution) holds 31.5%, while individual insiders collectively hold small stakes (Bùi Hương Giang 2.6%, Nguyễn Anh Tuấn 2.0%, others listed at 0.0%). Director-deal registrations show 5 purchase registrations (four traders; 130,000 shares; one registration without a volume) and 0 sale registrations in the 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 window — these are filings of intended insider transactions, not executed trades.
- Compare the 2025 year-end trade receivables line with the related-party receivables and prepayments note to reconcile the 7.4% of total assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Reconcile the consolidated operating cash flow statement with consolidated net profit for the last three years and show the schedules supporting the -4.39 three-year cash conversion ratio (note and cashflow reconciliation).
- Inspect the notes to the financial statements for the components of total accruals and the calculation behind TATA = 0.1398 (e.g., changes in working capital, depreciation, provisions) to see what drives the 13.98% accruals-to-assets.
- Review the disclosure of SG&A by nature and any one-off items or reclassifications in the SG&A note to understand the SGAI = 1.7072 increase versus revenue.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 3.06
- P/S
- 2.46
- ROE
- 3.6%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- EPS
- 416
- BVPS
- 13.353
- Gross Margin
- 13.5%
- Net Margin
- 2.5%
- D/E
- 0.98
- Current Ratio
- 1.00
- Rev Growth
- −10.5%
- Profit Growth
- −69.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 25.61
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 405M
- Charter Capital
- 4,054B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
- Company Type
- CT