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AAN

Công ty Cổ phần Lương thực A An

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngSản xuất thực phẩmHOSECT
15.400
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+1.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
15.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.613

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
60.73%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.71%
x
D/(D+E)
39.27%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend12.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→45.08B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→15.400
Calibrated value vs last close→+1.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.613
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate12.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow45.1 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth9.0%10.5%12.0%13.5%15.0%
8.0%16.44916.44916.44916.44917.226
9.0%15.61315.61316.44916.44916.449
10.0%15.61315.61315.61315.61316.449
11.0%15.61315.61315.61315.61315.613
12.0%15.61315.61315.61315.61315.613
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,3441,018829
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1756728
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·21616324
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·502296312
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·4935
Net Inventories
·428478457
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·428478457
Other current assets
·23138
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·265268281
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·251255273
Tangible fixed assets
·191192204
Intagible fixed assets
·596369
Other non-current assets
·13118
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·13118
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,6091,2861,109
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·675847698
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·675847696
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·604740202
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·52120
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·002
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·002
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·934439411
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·934439411
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·650350350
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·1328759
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,6091,2861,109
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·650350350
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·222

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
21
Poor
Accrual Quality
50
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
11

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.22 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.25
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.244
GMI
1.000
AQI
0.922
SGI
1.362
DEPI
0.924
SGAI
1.057
TATA
0.138
LVGI
0.637

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−5.645th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.2%15th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

AAN’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.2184 (84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers; the M‑Score moved down by 0.25 year‑over‑year. Earnings‑quality diagnostics are mixed: a low overall score of 21.0/100 driven by very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and poor receivables quality (11.2/100), while the Altman Z‑Score at 4.05 places the company in the bankruptcy “safe” zone and the Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -1.2184 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); at the 84th Vietnam peer percentile this score is higher (more aggressive) than 84% of Vietnamese non‑financial listed companies.
  • DSRI = 1.2438 (Days Sales Receivable Index; a measure of receivables growth relative to sales — values >1 can indicate rising receivables versus sales), which contributes to the elevated M‑Score.
  • SGI = 1.3618 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth — high values can be associated with pressure to meet growth targets and potential aggressive accounting), increasing manipulation pressure component of the M‑Score.
  • TATA = 0.1381 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accruals relative to assets — positive and material accruals can signal earnings management), which raises accrual‑based concerns.
  • Earnings Quality Score = 21.0/100 (a composite measure of earnings sustainability and reliability); specifically Cash Conversion = 0.0/100 (operating cash flow failing to convert reported profit) and Receivables Quality = 11.2/100 (weak quality of receivables and related items).
  • Three‑year cash conversion ratio = -5.64 (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2023–FY2025 aggregate), ranked in the 5th percentile versus Vietnamese peers — meaning profits are not converting into cash relative to peers.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets, 15th percentile among Vietnamese companies (captures prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables outside normal trade receivables), indicating non‑trade receivables exist though not large in absolute terms.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z‑Score = 4.05 (measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and leverage metrics) — falls in the ‘safe’ zone, implying low short‑term bankruptcy risk by that model.
  • GMI = 1.0000 (Gross Margin Index; a value of 1 indicates stable gross margin year‑over‑year, which does not signal margin deterioration that might trigger aggressive smoothing).
  • DEPI = 0.9240 (Depreciation Index; <1 indicates depreciation expense rose relative to prior period or asset base changes that reduce incentive to manipulate via depreciation timing), which does not point to aggressive deferment of depreciation.)
  • AQI = 0.9222 (Asset Quality Index; <1 suggests asset reclassification or investment patterns not signaling worsening asset quality relative to the prior year), which is a neutral‑to‑positive input to the Beneish model.
  • Accumulated losses: none — undistributed earnings are not negative and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, both factual signs of solvency in the reported statements.
  • Statutory statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended (these published financial statements do not meet the exchange’s statutory loss triggers for cancellation).
Ownership Risk

Shareholding is concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Siba Holdings (institution) holds 52.1%, indicating single‑institution control or dominant influence; the next largest listed individual holdings are small (Trương Mạnh Linh 2.1%, others ≤0.2%). No director‑deal registrations were provided in the input (director registrations are intentions filed with the exchange rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) for 'Cash flows from operating activities' in the FY2025 cash flow statement to the parent net profit (profit/loss after tax) to verify the -5.64 three‑year cash conversion ratio and identify the components driving the shortfall.
  • Reconcile trade receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' by comparing the trade receivables note, loans receivable and prepayments schedule in the FY2025 notes to total assets to confirm the 0.2% figure and the nature of those balances.
  • Inspect the notes on related‑party transactions and short‑term loans in FY2025 for any large balances or movements (prepayments to suppliers, loans to/from related parties) that could explain weak cash conversion or elevated accruals (TATA = 0.1381).
  • Review the fixed‑asset and depreciation note to confirm the components that produced DEPI = 0.9240 and to check for unusual revaluations, disposals or changes in useful lives that might affect depreciation timing.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.05
Safe Zone
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.78×Interest Burden1.03×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover2.06×Leverage1.72=ROE4.8%

Key Ratios

No ratio data available

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
91.6M
Charter Capital
916B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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