Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 15.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 15.613
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −5.645th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%15th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
AAN’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.2184 (84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers; the M‑Score moved down by 0.25 year‑over‑year. Earnings‑quality diagnostics are mixed: a low overall score of 21.0/100 driven by very weak cash conversion (0.0/100) and poor receivables quality (11.2/100), while the Altman Z‑Score at 4.05 places the company in the bankruptcy “safe” zone and the Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.2184 (measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); at the 84th Vietnam peer percentile this score is higher (more aggressive) than 84% of Vietnamese non‑financial listed companies.
- DSRI = 1.2438 (Days Sales Receivable Index; a measure of receivables growth relative to sales — values >1 can indicate rising receivables versus sales), which contributes to the elevated M‑Score.
- SGI = 1.3618 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth — high values can be associated with pressure to meet growth targets and potential aggressive accounting), increasing manipulation pressure component of the M‑Score.
- TATA = 0.1381 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accruals relative to assets — positive and material accruals can signal earnings management), which raises accrual‑based concerns.
- Earnings Quality Score = 21.0/100 (a composite measure of earnings sustainability and reliability); specifically Cash Conversion = 0.0/100 (operating cash flow failing to convert reported profit) and Receivables Quality = 11.2/100 (weak quality of receivables and related items).
- Three‑year cash conversion ratio = -5.64 (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2023–FY2025 aggregate), ranked in the 5th percentile versus Vietnamese peers — meaning profits are not converting into cash relative to peers.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets, 15th percentile among Vietnamese companies (captures prepayments, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables outside normal trade receivables), indicating non‑trade receivables exist though not large in absolute terms.
- Altman Z‑Score = 4.05 (measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and leverage metrics) — falls in the ‘safe’ zone, implying low short‑term bankruptcy risk by that model.
- GMI = 1.0000 (Gross Margin Index; a value of 1 indicates stable gross margin year‑over‑year, which does not signal margin deterioration that might trigger aggressive smoothing).
- DEPI = 0.9240 (Depreciation Index; <1 indicates depreciation expense rose relative to prior period or asset base changes that reduce incentive to manipulate via depreciation timing), which does not point to aggressive deferment of depreciation.)
- AQI = 0.9222 (Asset Quality Index; <1 suggests asset reclassification or investment patterns not signaling worsening asset quality relative to the prior year), which is a neutral‑to‑positive input to the Beneish model.
- Accumulated losses: none — undistributed earnings are not negative and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, both factual signs of solvency in the reported statements.
- Statutory statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended (these published financial statements do not meet the exchange’s statutory loss triggers for cancellation).
Shareholding is concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Siba Holdings (institution) holds 52.1%, indicating single‑institution control or dominant influence; the next largest listed individual holdings are small (Trương Mạnh Linh 2.1%, others ≤0.2%). No director‑deal registrations were provided in the input (director registrations are intentions filed with the exchange rather than executed trades).
- Compare the line(s) for 'Cash flows from operating activities' in the FY2025 cash flow statement to the parent net profit (profit/loss after tax) to verify the -5.64 three‑year cash conversion ratio and identify the components driving the shortfall.
- Reconcile trade receivables and 'receivables outside the trade cycle' by comparing the trade receivables note, loans receivable and prepayments schedule in the FY2025 notes to total assets to confirm the 0.2% figure and the nature of those balances.
- Inspect the notes on related‑party transactions and short‑term loans in FY2025 for any large balances or movements (prepayments to suppliers, loans to/from related parties) that could explain weak cash conversion or elevated accruals (TATA = 0.1381).
- Review the fixed‑asset and depreciation note to confirm the components that produced DEPI = 0.9240 and to check for unusual revaluations, disposals or changes in useful lives that might affect depreciation timing.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 91.6M
- Charter Capital
- 916B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
- Company Type
- CT