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ANI

Công ty Cổ phần ANI

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtSản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnUPCOMCT
47.000
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+8.4%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
47.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
50.958

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
2
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→167
Payout ratio→4.7%
3
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→47.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+8.4%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
50.958
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate
Dividend per share167dps source: eventspayout ratio: 4.73
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,543602499536954281284268
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·35340.50.9100.08
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·41119265147390193215130
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,1203863812775218458138
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·3881191811759
Net Inventories
·1.052321190.400
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1.052321190.400
Other current assets
·914278724410.03
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·3,1203,0012,7591,225646308279524
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·020131310000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0031310000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·2,6702,5452,3738324355
Tangible fixed assets
·2,6512,5392,3667620355
Intagible fixed assets
·196664000
Investment in properties
·7783151616221516
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·6506600180180114
Investments in associate companies
·650660001800
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000001800114
Other non-current assets
·282171275250.60.20.05
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·16817116920.90.60.20.05
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,6633,6033,2581,7611,599589563792
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3,7032,8862,6351,274934268253539
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,0087511,494845933267252539
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·753342649508323012785
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.20.70.894180.20.01368
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2,6952,1351,14142910.70.40.6
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·2,6822,1249634270000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·960717623487666321310253
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·960717623487666321310253
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·240240240240240240240200
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·101010101010108
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·64843325616480695842
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·4,6633,6033,2581,7611,599589563792
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·380100000
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0201000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·240240240240240240240200
Good will (Bn. VND)
·114010600000
MINORITY INTERESTS
·603211571334000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
15
Poor
Accrual Quality
46
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M −0.39 · 91st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.12
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.386
GMI
1.000
AQI
0.762
SGI
1.215
DEPI
0.907
SGAI
0.917
TATA
0.153
LVGI
0.992

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.0322nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.9%34th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive revenue/receivable recognition but mixed overall financial health: the Beneish M‑Score is -0.3868 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year‑over‑year increase of +2.12 indicating a recent shift in accounting dynamics. Specific component flags include a very high DSRI of 2.3860 (large sales/receivables index), low TATA (0.1530, suggesting positive accruals) and AQI 0.7616; the Altman Z‑Score is 0.83 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral), and the Vietnam‑specific checks show weak cash conversion (three‑year operating cash flow/net profit = -0.03, 22nd percentile) but limited receivables outside the trade cycle (0.9% of assets, 34th percentile) and no accumulated losses.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score = -0.3868 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M‑Score aggregates eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation; this company scores well above most Vietnamese peers and moved +2.12 year‑over‑year, signalling a recent increase in the accounting aggressiveness component of the score.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.3860. DSRI measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1530. TATA measures accruals relative to assets; a higher absolute accrual measure can mean earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash. Here the positive 0.1530 indicates material accruals.
  • Earnings Quality Score = 15.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These component scores show poor ability to turn reported profit into cash and weak receivable quality on the scoring methodology used.
  • Altman Z‑Score = 0.83 (distress zone). The Z‑Score combines liquidity, profitability and leverage metrics to assess bankruptcy distance; 0.83 places the company in the classic ‘distress’ range.
  • Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.03 (22nd percentile). This is a negative conversion ratio and ranks low versus peers, evidencing profits that are not being converted into operating cash flow over the rolling period.
Positive Signals
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7616. AQI <1 suggests asset write‑ups or lower relative noncurrent asset growth versus sales, which in some contexts is the opposite of aggressive capitalisation of costs; it moderates concern from other Beneish components.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0000. GMI = 1.0 indicates gross margin is stable year‑over‑year, so there is no immediate sign of margin deterioration prompting manipulation to hide declining operating performance.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2154. Sales growth of ~21.5% year‑over‑year can be a legitimate growth signal; SGI is included in the M‑Score but higher SGI alone does not imply manipulation.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.9% of total assets (34th percentile). The absolute level of non‑trade receivables/prepayments/long‑term receivables is low in the peer distribution, reducing concern that off‑balance or related‑party receivables are large in scale.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Anza holds 73.3%, followed by institutional owners at 6.3% and 5.3%; the two named individuals hold 1.2% and 0.2%. This concentrated institutional/group ownership implies control is clustered (majority holder plus related institutions), which can increase the importance of related‑party transactions and internal group reporting practices in the financial statements.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑on‑year change in trade receivables and revenue in the notes to receivables and the revenue recognition note to reconcile the DSRI (2.3860) with disclosed sales growth (SGI = 1.2154).
  • Reconcile profit to operating cash flow in the cash flow statement and the auditor’s notes to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -0.03 and investigate the major components (changes in working capital, non‑cash items) behind the negative conversion.
  • Inspect the schedule or note for ‘receivables and prepayments’ and the related‑party disclosure to confirm the composition and aging of the 0.9% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Review the notes on accruals, provisions and other non‑cash adjustments to check the drivers of TATA = 0.1530 and the low cash conversion score in the Earnings Quality breakdown.
  • Check the statement of changes in equity and the auditor’s report for evidence supporting positive owner’s equity without minority interest and the absence of accumulated losses; confirm parent profit (net loss years = 0) in the parent company income statement or separate financials.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.83
Distress Zone
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.98×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.37×Turnover0.14×Leverage4.86=ROE24.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.72P/E
P/B
1.25
P/S
1.70
ROE
30.1%
ROA
5.8%
EPS
9.953
BVPS
37.493
Gross Margin
63.5%
Net Margin
36.0%
D/E
3.58
Current Ratio
1.53
EV/EBITDA
7.93
Div Yield
1.1%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
24.0M
Charter Capital
240B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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