Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 47.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 50.958
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0322nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.9%34th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals consistent with aggressive revenue/receivable recognition but mixed overall financial health: the Beneish M‑Score is -0.3868 (91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year‑over‑year increase of +2.12 indicating a recent shift in accounting dynamics. Specific component flags include a very high DSRI of 2.3860 (large sales/receivables index), low TATA (0.1530, suggesting positive accruals) and AQI 0.7616; the Altman Z‑Score is 0.83 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral), and the Vietnam‑specific checks show weak cash conversion (three‑year operating cash flow/net profit = -0.03, 22nd percentile) but limited receivables outside the trade cycle (0.9% of assets, 34th percentile) and no accumulated losses.
- Beneish M‑Score = -0.3868 (91st percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M‑Score aggregates eight ratios to screen for earnings manipulation; this company scores well above most Vietnamese peers and moved +2.12 year‑over‑year, signalling a recent increase in the accounting aggressiveness component of the score.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.3860. DSRI measures changes in receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales and can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1530. TATA measures accruals relative to assets; a higher absolute accrual measure can mean earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash. Here the positive 0.1530 indicates material accruals.
- Earnings Quality Score = 15.3/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These component scores show poor ability to turn reported profit into cash and weak receivable quality on the scoring methodology used.
- Altman Z‑Score = 0.83 (distress zone). The Z‑Score combines liquidity, profitability and leverage metrics to assess bankruptcy distance; 0.83 places the company in the classic ‘distress’ range.
- Three‑year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.03 (22nd percentile). This is a negative conversion ratio and ranks low versus peers, evidencing profits that are not being converted into operating cash flow over the rolling period.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.7616. AQI <1 suggests asset write‑ups or lower relative noncurrent asset growth versus sales, which in some contexts is the opposite of aggressive capitalisation of costs; it moderates concern from other Beneish components.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.0000. GMI = 1.0 indicates gross margin is stable year‑over‑year, so there is no immediate sign of margin deterioration prompting manipulation to hide declining operating performance.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.2154. Sales growth of ~21.5% year‑over‑year can be a legitimate growth signal; SGI is included in the M‑Score but higher SGI alone does not imply manipulation.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.9% of total assets (34th percentile). The absolute level of non‑trade receivables/prepayments/long‑term receivables is low in the peer distribution, reducing concern that off‑balance or related‑party receivables are large in scale.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Anza holds 73.3%, followed by institutional owners at 6.3% and 5.3%; the two named individuals hold 1.2% and 0.2%. This concentrated institutional/group ownership implies control is clustered (majority holder plus related institutions), which can increase the importance of related‑party transactions and internal group reporting practices in the financial statements.
- Compare the year‑on‑year change in trade receivables and revenue in the notes to receivables and the revenue recognition note to reconcile the DSRI (2.3860) with disclosed sales growth (SGI = 1.2154).
- Reconcile profit to operating cash flow in the cash flow statement and the auditor’s notes to verify the three‑year cash conversion ratio of -0.03 and investigate the major components (changes in working capital, non‑cash items) behind the negative conversion.
- Inspect the schedule or note for ‘receivables and prepayments’ and the related‑party disclosure to confirm the composition and aging of the 0.9% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the notes on accruals, provisions and other non‑cash adjustments to check the drivers of TATA = 0.1530 and the low cash conversion score in the Earnings Quality breakdown.
- Check the statement of changes in equity and the auditor’s report for evidence supporting positive owner’s equity without minority interest and the absence of accumulated losses; confirm parent profit (net loss years = 0) in the parent company income statement or separate financials.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.25
- P/S
- 1.70
- ROE
- 30.1%
- ROA
- 5.8%
- EPS
- 9.953
- BVPS
- 37.493
- Gross Margin
- 63.5%
- Net Margin
- 36.0%
- D/E
- 3.58
- Current Ratio
- 1.53
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.93
- Div Yield
- 1.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 24.0M
- Charter Capital
- 240B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT