UPCOM:VEC
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Điện tử và Tin học Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 26.510
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 5 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF lets growth fade more slowly than in any other sector, recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.
Technical details
Tech firms combine high growth potential with current profitability that peers can benchmark. Pure DCF could overvalue if growth assumptions are too aggressive. The P/E blend acts as a market-calibrated anchor, while the PEG-based cap prevents paying excessive multiples.
DCF: 10-year FCF projection with growth capped at 20%, fading more slowly than in any other sector toward the sector's long-run growth rate. P/E: 5-year median P/E capped at dynamic ceiling (growth x 1.5, max 30). Blend: 60% DCF + 40% P/E.
Technology and IT companies where high growth potential must be balanced against the risk of speculative overvaluation.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.0222nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.8%66th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The forensic indicators show mixed signals. The Beneish M-Score is -1.6285 (76th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.26, indicating the company sits toward the more aggressive-accounting side of Vietnamese peers and that accounting metrics have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are weak in cash and margin conversion (Cash conversion 0.2/100; Margin quality 0.0/100; Revenue quality 0.0/100) while accrual measures and solvency look healthier (Accruals quality 66.3/100; Altman Z-Score 8.35; Piotroski F-Score 7/9).
- M-Score -1.6285, Vietnam peer percentile 76th and YoY change +1.26 — the score is above many Vietnamese peers and has moved notably year-over-year (the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly dispositive in Vietnam).
- Very poor cash conversion: Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.02 (22nd percentile) and Earnings-Quality Cash conversion = 0.2/100 — reported profits are not converting to cash.
- Extremely low margin and revenue quality: Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — the decomposition shows little robustness in reported margins and revenues.
- Receivables/outside-trade-cycle items are meaningful: Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.8% of total assets (66th percentile) and Receivables-quality score = 28.3/100 — a non-trivial portion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables.
- One large director-deal sale registration: 1 sale registration for 38,529,750 shares disclosed between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 (registrations indicate registered intention to trade, not executed trades).
- Accruals quality = 66.3/100 and TATA = 0.0843 — overall accrual-based distortion appears moderate-to-low by this measure.
- DEPI = 0.6757 and AQI = 0.6488 — depreciation and asset-quality adjustments do not show extreme upward manipulation signals.
- Solvency and fundamentals are strong: Altman Z-Score = 8.35 (in the safe zone for bankruptcy distance) and Piotroski F-Score = 7/9 (indicating several positive fundamental signals).
- Leverage and inventory signals: LVGI = 1.0113 and SGI = 1.3164 — leverage/inventory-growth indicators are not indicating extreme stress (LVGI near 1).
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tập Đoàn Geleximco holds 88.0% of shares. The two named individuals show 0.0% in the top-holder list. Such concentration implies significant group/control influence over reporting and governance; director-deal activity is limited to registered intentions (one large sale registration and one purchase registration with no volume specified).
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) to consolidated profit before tax and the note on cash conversion to verify the 0.02 three-year cash-conversion ratio.
- Examine the notes to the financial statements for 'receivables and other receivables' and the related-party schedule to reconcile the 4.8% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Review the depreciation and fixed-asset note and the reconciliation to confirm DEPI = 0.6757 and any changes in useful lives or revaluations disclosed in FY2025.
- Inspect director/shareholder registration disclosures and the large-holder schedule to locate the registered sale of 38,529,750 shares and any accompanying explanatory note.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.32
- P/S
- 2.81
- ROE
- 13.7%
- ROA
- 7.8%
- EPS
- 1.390
- BVPS
- 10.756
- Gross Margin
- 24.0%
- Net Margin
- 17.6%
- D/E
- 0.01
- Current Ratio
- 4.96
- Rev Growth
- +31.7%
- Profit Growth
- +1201.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 43.8M
- Charter Capital
- 438B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Công nghệ Thông tin
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Thiết bị và Phần cứng
- Sub-industry
- Phần cứng
- Company Type
- CT