UPCOM:VEA
Tổng Công ty Máy động lực và Máy nông nghiệp Việt Nam - CTCP
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 37.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 38.516
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.5%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0122nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%32nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2713 (84th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), signalling more aggressive accounting indicators than most Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not the primary comparator here; year-over-year change is small at +0.03. Earnings-quality diagnostics are mixed: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 30.7/100 with very poor cash-conversion and revenue-quality sub-scores (0.0/100 each) but perfect receivables quality (100.0/100); solvency and basic fundamentals look healthy (Altman Z-Score 22.87 — “safe zone”; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score -1.2713 (84th Vietnam peer percentile): the M-Score combines eight empirical ratios to flag accounting anomalies; this company sits above most Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive signals).
- TATA = 0.2573: Total accruals to total assets of 0.2573 measures the extent earnings are driven by accruals rather than cash; a materially positive value is a signal that profits include significant accrual components.
- SGAI = 1.2675: the ratio of (SG&A / sales) year-over-year is 1.2675, indicating SG&A scaled up relative to sales (measures selling/general/admin expense growth vs sales).
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.01 (22nd percentile among VN non-financials): measures ability to turn reported profit into operating cash; negative and low percentile indicate profits have not translated into cash over three years.
- Earnings Quality Score 30.7/100 with accruals quality 19.0/100 and revenue quality 0.0/100: these sub-scores measure the reliability of accruals and the sustainability/quality of reported revenues — both are weak here.
- Altman Z-Score = 22.87 (safe zone): measures distance to bankruptcy using a multi‑ratio model; a very high score signals low bankruptcy risk under that model.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: a composite of profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency signals neutral-to-favourable fundamental trends.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and DSRI = 0.9954: receivables-as-sales (DSRI ~0.9954) is stable and the receivables-quality metric is perfect (measures proportion of receivables that look like core trade receivables vs outside-the-trade-cycle items like loans or long-term receivables).
- AQI = 0.9850 and DEPI = 0.8872: the asset-quality index (AQI < 1) suggests fewer non-current asset write-ups or reclassifications compared with the prior period, and DEPI < 1 indicates an increased depreciation rate (both are, in Beneish terms, not strong manipulation signals).
- LVGI = 1.0032 and SGI = 1.0882: leverage changed little (LVGI ~1.00) and sales grew modestly (SGI 1.0882), consistent with stable financing and moderate growth.
Ownership is highly concentrated: the Ministry of Industry and Trade holds 88.5% (state ownership), with three institutional investors holding 3.5%, 3.0% and 1.3% and a small individual at 0.1%. Such concentration implies the state is the controlling shareholder and limits free-float; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data (registrations, when present, are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 consolidated operating cash flow (statement of cash flows) with consolidated net profit (income statement) and reconcile the three-year cash-conversion ratio in management discussion/notes.
- Inspect the related-party note and the receivables/other receivables schedules for the 0.8% of total assets labelled as "receivables outside the trade cycle" to see composition (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Examine the notes on revenue recognition and on accruals (provisions, deferred revenue, accrued expenses) to understand drivers behind the revenue-quality = 0.0/100 and the TATA = 0.2573 accruals level.
- Review the auditor’s report and any subsequent events or going-concern disclosure in the FY2025 audit file, and check the statement of changes in equity for accumulated undistributed earnings (the dataset shows no accumulated losses and positive owner's equity excluding minority interest).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.85
- P/S
- 11.10
- ROE
- 27.1%
- ROA
- 25.6%
- EPS
- 5.380
- BVPS
- 20.184
- Gross Margin
- 15.4%
- Net Margin
- 161.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 15.23
- Rev Growth
- +8.7%
- Profit Growth
- −0.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- 241.07
- Div Yield
- 12.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1,329M
- Charter Capital
- 13,288B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Công nghiệp nặng
- Sub-industry
- Máy công nghiệp
- Company Type
- CT