Tổng Công ty Chuyển phát nhanh Bưu điện - Công ty Cổ phần
UPCOM:EMS
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimateWhy it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison.
Comparison dates
Comparison assessed 6 Nov 2026Valid through 6 Dec 2026
- Last close (VND)
- 18.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.238
Anchored to close on 6 Nov 2026
Assessment, methodology and calibration details
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Best-ranked in our recordCost of equity 22.8% · price volatility 64.1%
Last year's earnings per share, capitalised at a cost of equity that rises with this share's own price swings, growing at the sector's long-run rate.
This is a different figure from the calibrated value above, which starts from what the sector model says the business is worth. This figure is the one that has ranked future returns best in our track record, so read the two side by side.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation inputs, assumptions and diagnostics
Valuation Breakdown
Classification source details
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 21.0M
- Charter Capital
- 210B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Chuyển phát nhanh
- Company Type
- CT
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.4963rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.8%47th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.15
- P/S
- 0.19
- ROE
- 21.4%
- ROA
- 9.1%
- EPS
- 3.311
- BVPS
- 15.894
- Gross Margin
- 15.4%
- Net Margin
- 3.5%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 1.42
- Rev Growth
- +6.8%
- Profit Growth
- +5.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.87
- Div Yield
- 5.5%