Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 12.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 13.153
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 28 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.4963rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.8%56th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows a high Beneish M-Score of 0.9167 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.48, indicating its accounting profile has moved toward more aggressive signals relative to peers. Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals quality 100/100 and cash conversion 100/100 are strong, but receivables quality is very weak (0/100) and margin quality is only 55.2/100; Altman Z-Score is 2.74 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- High Beneish M-Score 0.9167 (96th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the M-Score aggregates eight ratios that flag earnings manipulation risk; this company ranks in the top 4% most aggressive vs Vietnamese listed peers and the M-Score climbed by +1.48 year-over-year.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.4580: this ratio measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a DSRI > 1 suggests receivables are increasing relative to sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection issues.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.8% of total assets (56th percentile): the earnings-quality metric gives the company the lowest score on receivables quality, and 2.8% of assets are classified as receivables or prepayments outside the normal trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 0.7594 and Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 0.7137 with SGAI = 1.4155: SGI < 1 shows sales contracted year-over-year while SGAI > 1 indicates selling/general/admin expenses rose relative to sales; together these can pressure margins and create incentives to manage earnings.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0354: AQI very high (10) means non-current assets or intangible/other assets grew relative to total assets compared with the prior year, which can reflect capitalization choices; LVGI > 1 indicates leverage increased slightly.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0410: while negative accruals often reflect conservative recognition, the sign and magnitude should be read with the other accruals and cash-flow metrics rather than alone.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100: this measures the extent to which reported earnings are backed by accruals; a perfect score indicates accrual patterns appear high-quality by the applied metric.
- Cash conversion = 100.0/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 1.49 (63rd percentile): these indicate operating cash flow has been at least in line with reported profit over the three-year window and the company is above median on this metric among Vietnamese peers.
- No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent net loss in 0 consecutive years to FY2025: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and the parent has not reported recent statutory losses.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral fundamentals): the F-Score shows a mix of signals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency rather than clear deterioration.
Ownership is concentrated among five individuals: Trần Xuân Chính 17.3%, Trần Xuân Minh 11.1%, Nguyễn Anh Tuấn 11.0%, Ngô Đình Khương 10.8% and Lưu Quang Hưng 5.0%, together forming a closely held top shareholder block. No director-deal registrations were provided in the inputs (director registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).
- Compare the receivables and prepayments line items in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related-party note to quantify the 2.8% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.49) and review any large timing items in the notes to cash flows.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the accounting policy note to understand drivers of the AQI = 10.0000 (asset reclassifications, capitalisation of costs, or acquisitions).
- Check the revenue recognition note and trade receivables aging to see whether the elevated DSRI (1.4580) is driven by changed credit terms, slower collections, or related-party receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.57
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- 18.4%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- EPS
- 3.681
- BVPS
- 20.982
- Gross Margin
- 9.0%
- Net Margin
- 3.1%
- D/E
- 0.19
- Current Ratio
- 1.32
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.83
- Div Yield
- 12.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.0M
- Charter Capital
- 30.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT