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Công ty Cổ phần Xây lắp và Dịch vụ Sông Đà

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
12.000
VND · Close 29 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+9.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
12.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.153

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→7.00B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+9.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
13.153
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA7.0 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·158149991351291361431261471599985111
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1913210224374144351496
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000500700
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·10898821109170814376105462942
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·5313331235322
Net Inventories
·30381415364226372619323553
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·30381415364226372619323553
Other current assets
·100000000001210
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000001210
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·25788101213151614151615
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.0300000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.030.030.030.030.030.030.030.0300000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·5788101113151012131515
Tangible fixed assets
·3566891113910111211
Intagible fixed assets
·2222222222222
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·19000000000000
Investments in associate companies
·19000000000000
Other non-current assets
·0.050.060.010.010.090.060.020.040.070.040.40.50.8
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.050.060.010.010.090.060.020.040.070.040.40.50.8
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·183156107143138148156141162173114101126
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1209957939010010795118131837096
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·120995793909810284108127837092
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·12007501012355714
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·37241911223029311232363330
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000.040.041511104004
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000000004
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·63575051484849474441313130
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·63575051484849474441313130
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·30303030303030303030232323
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·221717161616131185533
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·111035336666344
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·183156107143138148156141162173114101126
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·30303030303030303030232323
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
69
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
55

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 0.92 · 96th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.48
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.458
GMI
0.714
AQI
10.000
SGI
0.759
DEPI
0.826
SGAI
1.415
TATA
−0.041
LVGI
1.035

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.4963rd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
2.8%56th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows a high Beneish M-Score of 0.9167 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.48, indicating its accounting profile has moved toward more aggressive signals relative to peers. Earnings-quality components are mixed: accruals quality 100/100 and cash conversion 100/100 are strong, but receivables quality is very weak (0/100) and margin quality is only 55.2/100; Altman Z-Score is 2.74 (grey zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • High Beneish M-Score 0.9167 (96th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the M-Score aggregates eight ratios that flag earnings manipulation risk; this company ranks in the top 4% most aggressive vs Vietnamese listed peers and the M-Score climbed by +1.48 year-over-year.
  • Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.4580: this ratio measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a DSRI > 1 suggests receivables are increasing relative to sales and can signal revenue recognition or collection issues.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.8% of total assets (56th percentile): the earnings-quality metric gives the company the lowest score on receivables quality, and 2.8% of assets are classified as receivables or prepayments outside the normal trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
  • Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 0.7594 and Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 0.7137 with SGAI = 1.4155: SGI < 1 shows sales contracted year-over-year while SGAI > 1 indicates selling/general/admin expenses rose relative to sales; together these can pressure margins and create incentives to manage earnings.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 10.0000 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0354: AQI very high (10) means non-current assets or intangible/other assets grew relative to total assets compared with the prior year, which can reflect capitalization choices; LVGI > 1 indicates leverage increased slightly.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0410: while negative accruals often reflect conservative recognition, the sign and magnitude should be read with the other accruals and cash-flow metrics rather than alone.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100: this measures the extent to which reported earnings are backed by accruals; a perfect score indicates accrual patterns appear high-quality by the applied metric.
  • Cash conversion = 100.0/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 1.49 (63rd percentile): these indicate operating cash flow has been at least in line with reported profit over the three-year window and the company is above median on this metric among Vietnamese peers.
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive and parent net loss in 0 consecutive years to FY2025: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and the parent has not reported recent statutory losses.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (neutral fundamentals): the F-Score shows a mix of signals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency rather than clear deterioration.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated among five individuals: Trần Xuân Chính 17.3%, Trần Xuân Minh 11.1%, Nguyễn Anh Tuấn 11.0%, Ngô Đình Khương 10.8% and Lưu Quang Hưng 5.0%, together forming a closely held top shareholder block. No director-deal registrations were provided in the inputs (director registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the receivables and prepayments line items in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related-party note to quantify the 2.8% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow and profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm the three-year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.49) and review any large timing items in the notes to cash flows.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the accounting policy note to understand drivers of the AQI = 10.0000 (asset reclassifications, capitalisation of costs, or acquisitions).
  • Check the revenue recognition note and trade receivables aging to see whether the elevated DSRI (1.4580) is driven by changed credit terms, slower collections, or related-party receivables.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.74
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.11
Negative
Composite
59
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden0.96×Op. Margin0.04×Turnover1.93×Leverage2.91=ROE17.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+15.4%
Volatility
49.7%
Max Drawdown
−18.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
3.26P/E
P/B
0.57
P/S
0.10
ROE
18.4%
ROA
6.5%
EPS
3.681
BVPS
20.982
Gross Margin
9.0%
Net Margin
3.1%
D/E
0.19
Current Ratio
1.32
EV/EBITDA
1.83
Div Yield
12.5%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
3.0M
Charter Capital
30.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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