Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 20.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 19.353
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −8.484th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.1%57th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
VTZ's Beneish M-Score is -0.1844 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.57, indicating the company's accounting pattern is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and has shifted materially this year. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: the Earnings Quality score is 50.4/100 with a very weak cash-conversion signal (3-year operating cash flow / net profit = -8.48, 4th percentile) but strong revenue and receivables quality (Revenue quality 100/100; Receivables quality 87.1/100). The Altman Z-Score is 2.14 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- High relative Beneish M-Score: -0.1844, at the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers — the percentile shows VTZ reports more aggressive accounting metrics than most local companies even though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly transferable.
- Large year-over-year M-Score increase: +1.57 — indicates the accounting profile moved substantially versus the prior year (Beneish components have low persistence, so this is a notable trajectory signal).
- Asset-quality/AQI concern: AQI = 4.0586 (component of the M-Score measuring quality of assets and unusual write-offs or revaluations) — a high AQI contributes to the elevated M-Score.
- Very poor cash conversion: 3-year operating cash flow / net profit = -8.48 (4th percentile vs VN non-financials); Earnings-quality subscore for cash conversion = 0.0/100 — profits are not being converted into operating cash.
- Tangible accounting accruals: TATA = 0.1133 (part of the M-Score measuring total accruals to total assets) and Accruals quality = 56.5/100 — indicates some reliance on accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings persistence and growth components: GMI = 1.3068 (gross margin deterioration index >1 indicates worsening margins year-over-year) and SGI = 1.3877 (sales growth index >1 shows rapid sales growth) — a pattern where growth occurs alongside margin pressure can raise flags for aggressive recognition.
- Altman Z-Score in the grey zone: 2.14 — not in the safe zone and indicates limited distance from financial-distress thresholds.
- Strong revenue quality: Revenue quality = 100.0/100 — accounting shows revenue recognition consistent with cash-related indicators or with the model’s revenue-quality signals.
- Receivables quality relatively high: Receivables quality = 87.1/100 and receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.1% of total assets (57th percentile) — only a modest share of assets is tied up in non-trade receivables/prepayments/loans receivable.
- No accumulated losses and no recent statutory loss triggers: undistributed earnings are positive, and the published statements do not meet any of the statutory loss tests referenced (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
- Piotroski F-Score neutral: 4/9 — fundamentals are neither strongly deteriorating nor strongly improving by Piotroski’s criteria.
Ownership is concentrated among a few individuals: Nguyễn Phúc Lợi 24.1%, Phan Văn Quân 22.6% and Nguyễn Văn Tuấn 20.2% (combined ~66.9%), with three other named individuals holding 5.0% each. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data set (registrations, if present, would be recorded with the exchange).
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flow line) to consolidated net profit to verify the -8.48 three-year operating-cash-flow / net-profit figure and check the cash flow drivers in the notes.
- Inspect the notes or schedules for 'Receivables and prepayments' and 'Loans to related parties' to confirm the 3.1% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify the counterparties, maturities and related-party flags.
- Review the consolidated accounting policy note and the fixed/other asset reconciliations for any large revaluations, write-offs or recoveries that would feed into AQI = 4.0586 and the TATA accruals measure (TATA = 0.1133).
- Confirm the statutory-loss disclosures and auditor’s report in the annual financial statements to verify that none of the Decree 155/2020 (amended) loss conditions are met and to read any auditor emphasis-of-matter or going-concern commentary.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.78
- P/S
- 0.31
- ROE
- 6.2%
- ROA
- 1.8%
- EPS
- 683
- BVPS
- 11.400
- Gross Margin
- 4.3%
- Net Margin
- 1.1%
- D/E
- 2.55
- Current Ratio
- 1.13
- Rev Growth
- +38.7%
- Profit Growth
- −13.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.60
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 76.2M
- Charter Capital
- 762B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Nhựa, cao su & sợi
- Company Type
- CT