Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.736
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 46.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 14.1%86th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals of elevated accruals and receivable-related items: a Beneish M-Score of -0.9773 (88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.41, and an AQI (asset quality index) of 1.9365. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality Score 16.0/100) driven by very poor cash-conversion and receivables scores (0.0/100 each) despite a middling accruals-quality subscore (53.3/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.82 (grey zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.9773. The M-Score is a composite that estimates the likelihood of earnings manipulation; this company's score sits above the US -1.78 threshold but the Vietnam peer percentile is the important context: 88th percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting than peers).
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +0.41. This upward move indicates the direction of accounting change; Beneish components show which items contributed.
- DSRI (Days' Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.4961. DSRI > 1 implies receivables grew faster than sales, consistent with elevated receivables pressure.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.9365. AQI > 1 signals a rising proportion of non-current/illiquid assets (e.g., prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables) to total assets.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1251. Positive and material accruals (12.51% of assets) can indicate earnings driven by accruals rather than cash.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 16.0/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. These zeros indicate very weak cash-realization of reported profits and poor composition of receivables in the quality model.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 14.1% of total assets (86th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The disclosure indicates a meaningful share of assets in prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables rather than normal trade receivables.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.82 (grey zone). This places the company between a safe and distressed classification on the Altman model's scale.
- Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): one sale registration and one purchase registration (purchase registered for 1,500,000 shares). These are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades, but they are recent insider/related-party trading registrations to note.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8070. GMI < 1 indicates gross margin improved year-over-year (or did not deteriorate), which reduces one pressure to manipulate margins.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.8244. SGAI < 1 suggests SG&A grew slower than sales (an improvement in efficiency) rather than an unexplained increase in operating expenses.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0302. DEPI is close to 1, indicating no large change in depreciation policies or life estimates that might materially distort profits through depreciation timing.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.8326. LVGI < 1 indicates leverage declined relative to assets, which can be a stabilizing signal for balance-sheet risk.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9. A mid-range score (5) reflects neutral fundamental performance—some strengths and some weaknesses across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent profit shows 0 consecutive net-loss years up to FY2025. These are factual balance-sheet conditions rather than market outcomes.
Shareholdings are concentrated among several individual insiders: Phạm Thị Thu Hoài 9.8%, Bùi Thị Mộng Uyên 8.4%, Phạm Thị Thu Hiền 8.3%, Trần Văn Tuấn 6.3% and Nguyễn Văn Tùng 5.5%. This implies significant insider/individual control concentration. Director-deal registrations in the last year include one sale registration and one purchase registration (1,500,000 shares) — these are registered intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 line items and note disclosures for 'receivables', 'loans receivable', and 'prepayments to suppliers' with the consolidated balance-sheet total to confirm the 14.1% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile TATA (total accruals) to the cash-flow statement: compare profit before tax to cash flows from operating activities and the components of working-capital movements and non-cash adjustments.
- Review the accounting-policy note for revenue recognition and the detailed sales / receivables aging schedule to see whether rising DSRI (1.4961) is driven by slower collections, extended payment terms, or related-party timing.
- Inspect the notes on related-party transactions and group schedules for loans, advances or guarantees to associated parties or subsidiaries (look for amounts and maturities in FY2025).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.35
- P/S
- 0.47
- ROE
- 1.2%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- EPS
- 98
- BVPS
- 11.029
- Gross Margin
- 12.6%
- Net Margin
- 1.2%
- D/E
- 0.30
- Current Ratio
- 2.31
- Rev Growth
- −16.3%
- Profit Growth
- +106.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.48
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 24.0M
- Charter Capital
- 240B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải hành khách & Du lịch
- Company Type
- CT