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VPH

Công ty Cổ phần Vạn Phát Hưng

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
2.450
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+34.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.450
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.304

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
  • Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.809
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.65%
Ke
10.65%
x
E/(D+E)
65.67%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.99%
x
D/(D+E)
34.33%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.450
Calibrated value vs last close→+34.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.304
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)12.00%high risk: yes
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow54.7 tỷone off strip ratio: 7.85

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
10.0%3.3043.3043.3043.3043.304
11.0%3.0013.0013.1913.1913.239
12.0%2.9912.9912.9912.9912.991
13.0%2.8582.8582.8582.8582.991
14.0%2.8582.8582.8582.8582.858
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,3191,3061,9081,8361,6431,7881,4791,7241,5641,5651,5371,6581,710
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·34183218710663747756120962
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·660.10.10.1250.10.10.10.10.631
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,0869078137251,1171,0209111,116680541264153198
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·32161861631577253220262746
Net Inventories
·1932041,0721,0214197605235587999601,0611,4941,474
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·1932071,0721,0214197605235588211,0051,1061,5191,500
Other current assets
·0.75220.80.233102255
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6376264594074083023023503641831365582
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·30523010027220.050.050.06500.0500
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·20713222220.050.050.06500.0500
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·12141514111419191820191939
Tangible fixed assets
·12141514111419191820191921
Investment in properties
·999109916567455
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1341331361851774527352715151521
Investments in associate companies
·1261261271691694027352715151515
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000013
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000000−0.1−0.1−0.1−7
Other non-current assets
·34886112515217418420623118241617
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.233151112000.7230.93
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,9571,9322,3662,2432,0512,0901,7822,0741,9291,7481,6731,7131,791
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·9298391,3461,2219831,0517671,0239711,0961,0771,2251,245
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·9288341,3451,2209821,0517571,0227888418128661,155
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·537434793528424435274410291353216294603
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·1391301301441783451171871541048688122
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2610.50.50.5100.918325526435990
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·0010009018225426335889
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·1,0271,0931,0201,0221,0681,0391,0151,051957652596488485
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1,0271,0931,0201,0221,0681,0391,0151,051957652596488485
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·954954954954954954954769636530453302302
Foreign Currency Difference reserve
·0000.40.1000000000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0000000011111111
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·69137555610377572792969711796
Minority Interest
·00000000000062
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,9571,9322,3662,2432,0512,0901,7822,0741,9291,7481,6731,7131,791
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·20518421511675192221300
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·97979724000000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·954954954954954954954769636530453302302
Good will (Bn. VND)
·2546501101321541761982200000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·411111117420.20000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
28
Poor
Accrual Quality
31
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M −0.56 · 90th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −4.33
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.421
GMI
0.525
AQI
1.008
SGI
2.840
DEPI
0.913
SGAI
0.310
TATA
0.209
LVGI
1.099

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−16.402nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
26.2%94th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -0.5619 (90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers), indicating its accounting is more aggressive than most domestic peers; the M-Score moved by -4.33 year-over-year, signalling a material change in the same direction. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (27.7/100) with especially poor cash conversion (0.0/100) and margin/revenue quality (0.0/100), while receivables quality scores strongly (100/100). The Altman Z-Score is 0.63 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).

Red Flags
  • High Beneish peer percentile: M-Score = -0.5619 at the 90th Vietnam percentile — this measures a composite of eight accrual- and profitability-based signals used to detect earnings manipulation tendencies; the company ranks among the more aggressive 10% of Vietnamese listed peers on this metric.
  • Large year-over-year M-Score change: YoY change = -4.33 — this measures trajectory of the M-Score components and indicates the accounting profile shifted materially compared with the prior year.
  • Very poor cash conversion: three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -16.40 (2nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this measures whether reported profits are converting into operating cash flows; the figure indicates profit is not translating into cash.
  • Altman bankruptcy-distance: Z-Score = 0.63 (distress zone) — this measures a blend of liquidity, profitability and leverage indicators to estimate distance from bankruptcy; 0.63 signals low buffer versus insolvency norms.
  • Earnings-quality weaknesses: overall Earnings Quality = 27.7/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these sub-scores measure respectively cash realization of profits, stability/quality of margins, and the quality/recurrence of reported revenue.
  • High proportion of receivables outside the trade cycle: Receivables outside trade cycle = 26.2% of total assets (94th percentile) — this measures balances such as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables, which are unusually large relative to peers.
Positive Signals
  • Strong receivables quality sub-score: Receivables quality = 100.0/100 — this measures indicators around receivables (e.g., aging, collectibility proxies) and suggests the receivables-related inputs to quality scoring are favorable.
  • Low Beneish component signs for some ratios: DSRI = 0.4214 (days-sales-receivable index), GMI = 0.5249 (gross-margin index), SGAI = 0.3103 (SG&A index), DEPI = 0.9129 (depreciation index), and TATA = 0.2095 (total accruals) — each component measures specific accrual, margin, or revenue timing behaviors and several are below 1.0 or low, which in many contexts are not the classic warning directions.
  • No accumulated losses and positive owner’s equity: accumulated losses = none and owner’s equity excluding minority interest is positive — these facts measure that retained earnings are non-negative and the company reports a positive equity base.
  • Statutory loss tests: none met under the cited Decree tests — the audited FY2025 statements do not meet the regulatory criteria (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) that trigger the specific statutory loss listing action.
Ownership Risk

Top holders are concentrated among individuals with the same family name: VÕ ANH TUẤN 11.0%, Võ Nguyễn Như Nguyện 8.2%, Võ Phan Hồng Ngọc (Võ Gwenyth Ngọ) 8.2%, Võ Phan Khôi Nguyên 8.2%, and PHAN TIẾT HỒNG MINH 6.9%. This indicates a concentrated, likely family-linked ownership block; no director-deal registrations were provided in the input (director-deal registrations are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line items for 'Prepayments to suppliers' and 'Loans and long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and the related-party note to reconcile the 26.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the cash flow statement and the notes (three-year series) to assess drivers of the three-year cash conversion ratio = -16.40.
  • Inspect the revenue recognition note and the revenue breakdown (by product/customer and timing) to understand causes of the Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and SG&A/margin drivers.
  • Review the auditor’s report and the statutory footnotes that document the company’s compliance with Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (and subsequent amendments) to confirm the reported statement facts that no statutory loss tests were met.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.63
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−2.13
Negative
Composite
82
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.03×Interest Burden0.79×Op. Margin−0.19×Turnover0.07×Leverage1.91=ROE−2.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−42.1%
Volatility
24.4%
Max Drawdown
−50.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.23
P/S
1.74
ROE
−1.9%
ROA
−1.1%
EPS
−216
BVPS
10.731
Gross Margin
14.3%
Net Margin
−15.3%
D/E
0.52
Current Ratio
1.42
Rev Growth
+184.0%
Profit Growth
−115.4%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
95.4M
Charter Capital
954B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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