Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.348
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.5465th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.0%62nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple signals of aggressive or risky accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3777 (95th percentile versus VN peers) with a year-over-year change of -5.32, a very high DSRI of 4.8351 and an elevated GMI of 1.1337. At the same time, some operating and accrual measures are weak — Altman Z-Score is 0.13 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 — while accruals quality is strong (100/100) but receivables and margin quality score 0/100 each.
- Beneish M-Score 0.3777 (95th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score measures multiple accounting ratios linked to earnings manipulation; the percentile says this company’s score is more aggressive versus 95% of VN-listed peers.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 4.8351: this component of the M-Score measures unusually large increases in receivables relative to sales, suggesting revenue recognition or collection issues.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 1.4504 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.1337: SGAI >1 indicates selling/administrative expenses growing faster than sales; GMI >1 indicates gross margins deteriorating year-over-year — both feed into the M-Score’s concern about earnings quality.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 in the Earnings-Quality breakdown: the scoring framework flags very poor receivables and margin signals.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.13 (distress zone): this measures distance to financial distress using liquidity, profitability and leverage; 0.13 indicates low distance from the model’s distress boundary.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: a low score on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency metrics, indicating weak fundamental signals.
- Cash-conversion three-year ratio = 1.54 (65th percentile among VN non-financials): measured as operating cash flow / net profit over three years, this result (and its percentile) shows profit has been less effective at generating cash compared with many peers.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100: the accruals component of the earnings-quality metric indicates strong accrual reporting relative to peers (this measures the degree to which reported earnings are supported by cash-based items).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0250 and LVGI (Leverage Index) ≈ 0.9955: TATA slightly negative suggests small net cash-generating accruals in the period; LVGI close to 1 shows leverage has been roughly stable year-over-year.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: the balance sheet shows retained earnings are not negative and equity is on the positive side.
Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Trần Minh Hoàng 18.2%, Hồ Đắc Hưng 17.0%, and Trần Bình Long 11.9% together control a large block; four other named individuals hold material stakes (5.1% each for two others). No director-deal registrations were provided in the supplied data (registrations, when present, are declarations of intended trades to the exchange).
- Compare the growth in trade receivables and the note on 'loans and receivables / other receivables' in the FY2025 audited financial statements to the DSRI (4.8351) to see which receivable categories drove the increase.
- Reconcile operating cash flow and net profit over the last three years in the cash-flow statement and the management discussion to confirm the three-year cash-conversion figure of 1.54 and identify timing or one-off items.
- Inspect the notes to selling, general & administrative expenses and the segment or revenue note to explain SGAI = 1.4504 and GMI = 1.1337 (which indicate rising SG&A relative to sales and shrinking gross margin).
- Review related-party disclosures and the schedule of receivables/prepayments to check the composition of the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (4.0% of total assets) for prepayments, long-term receivables or loans to affiliates.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.52
- P/S
- 0.41
- ROE
- −1.6%
- ROA
- −0.3%
- EPS
- −192
- BVPS
- 11.638
- Gross Margin
- 32.5%
- Net Margin
- −1.3%
- D/E
- 1.40
- Current Ratio
- 0.69
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.37
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 10.4M
- Charter Capital
- 104B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT