VNG

Công ty Cổ phần Du Lịch Thành Thành Công

VietnamCyclicalsDu lịch và Giải tríDu lịch & Giải tríHOSECT

5.500

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 5.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 5.269

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Du lịch và Giải trí” maps to the cyclical group.

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details

Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→156.91B

Fair EV/EBITDA→16.5x

Years of data→7

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→5.500

Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

5.269

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Mid-cycle EBITDA156.9 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7

VNG among Cyclicals

Every stock in the sector, VNG marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is VNG. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	1,319	1,572	779	732	595	587	355	576	495	159	92	20	11
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	10	545	91	77	15	105	69	74	51	8	8	5	0.9
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	276	12	12	272,000	272,000	293,515	0.5	0.4	13	51	2	0	0
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	906	913	560	631	564	454	248	473	403	93	51	12	5
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	256	144	108	245	184	92	54	41	26	7	16	2	0.4
Net Inventories	·	9	8	9	10	7	8	13	12	13	1	23	2	2
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	9	8	9	10	7	9	13	12	13	1	23	2	2
Other current assets	·	118	94	106	14	9	20	24	16	15	5	8	2	3
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	3,116	2,973	3,132	2,116	1,691	1,578	1,787	1,274	1,112	258	301	174	177
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	85	299	95	100	47	55	44	35	64	4	5	0	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	53	257	53	18	5	6	6	10	11	4	5	0	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	1,793	1,811	2,063	889	917	994	1,222	939	791	201	172	128	132
Tangible fixed assets	·	1,657	1,687	1,864	687	709	765	985	833	744	168	114	44	47
Leased assets	·	3	4	0	3	4	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
Intagible fixed assets	·	132	120	200	199	205	224	232	107	47	34	58	58	60
Investment in properties	·	0	0	0	0	0	40	20	26	20	0	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	719	391	523	477	391	156	86	24	28	23	23	35	35
Investments in associate companies	·	233	233	307	317	258	89	19	22	24	23	23	34	34
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	484	157	218	165	133	67	67	16	11	0.02	0.02	1	2
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−2	−2	−2	−5	0	0	0	−14	−7	0	0	0	−0.7
Other non-current assets	·	34	59	91	39	45	72	148	140	143	28	40	11	10
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	31	52	78	24	30	49	86	88	84	12	21	8	10
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	4,435	4,544	3,910	2,847	2,286	2,165	2,142	1,850	1,606	416	393	194	188
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	3,302	3,421	2,791	1,732	1,173	1,015	1,086	808	612	237	219	55	48
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,382	1,551	718	596	573	455	545	397	295	151	138	42	35
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	894	1,139	373	310	434	329	317	197	151	52	82	28	24
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	131	51	59	67	23	20	24	11	8	28	5	0.9	0.5
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	1,921	1,870	2,073	1,135	600	560	541	411	317	86	82	12	12
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	1,843	1,790	1,853	1,009	554	510	492	386	288	84	80	11	11
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)	·	1,133	1,124	1,119	1,116	1,112	1,150	1,056	1,042	994	179	173	140	140
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	1,133	1,124	1,119	1,116	1,112	1,150	1,056	1,042	994	179	173	140	140
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	973	973	973	973	973	973	927	837	752	130	130	130	130
Other Reserves	·	19	19	19	19	19	28	58	19	10	0	0	0	0
Foreign Currency Difference reserve	·	0	0.07	0.07	0.07	−0.03	0.05	0.06	0.08	−0.03	0	0	0	0
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6
Other Reserves	·	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.4	0	0	0	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	27	13	11	7	5	3	−45	5	15	10	4	2	2
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	4,435	4,544	3,910	2,847	2,286	2,165	2,142	1,850	1,606	416	393	194	188
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	168	99	86	73	65	98	75	322	304	5	11	0	0
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	32	42	42	66	42	49	38	25	53	0	0	0	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	973	973	973	973	973	973	927	837	752	130	130	130	130
Good will (Bn. VND)	·	2	2	9	11	13	20	59	51	58	17	19	0	0
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge	·	0.2	5	2	2	2	32	17	135	209	32	32	0	0

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Remainder

M −2.35 · 47th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▼ −0.65

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

0.928

GMI

0.905

AQI

1.168

SGI

1.070

DEPI

1.089

SGAI

0.888

TATA

0.017

LVGI

0.989

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit: −44.581st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 11.5%83rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.34

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−0.82

Negative

Composite

Below 30

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✗Lower Leverage

✗Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✓Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden0.16×Interest Burden0.84×Op. Margin0.06×Turnover0.17×Leverage3.91=ROE0.6%

Price Risk

Momentum

−24.2%

Volatility

61.8%

Max Drawdown

−37.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

81.61P/E

P/B: 0.47
P/S: 0.70
ROE: 0.6%
ROA: 0.1%
EPS: 67
BVPS: 11.647
Gross Margin: 31.5%
Net Margin: 0.9%
D/E: 2.41
Current Ratio: 0.95
Rev Growth: +2.3%
Profit Growth: +197.0%
EV/EBITDA: 15.55
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 97.3M
Charter Capital: 973B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3): Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry: Khách sạn
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Common ownership links for VNG. Hover for detail, select a link to open it.

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thành Thành Công

Inst

30.4%

29.5M

2024-03-31

Công ty Cổ Phần Giao Dịch Hàng Hóa Sơn Tín

Inst

21.7%

21.1M

2024-03-31

Công ty Cổ phần Khu Công Nghiệp Thành Thành Công

Inst

18.3%

17.8M

2024-03-31

Tạ Thị Phương Trang

Indiv

7.1%

921,040

2016-09-13

Huỳnh Văn Thành

Indiv

5.0%

648,660

2017-01-23

Nguyễn Trí Tân

Indiv

4.9%

3.7M

2018-03-02

Vũ Quốc Vương

Indiv

4.4%

3.7M

2019-05-20

Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng khoán Sài Gòn A2

Inst

3.9%

512,000

2012-03-05

Huỳnh Minh Hiếu

Indiv

2.8%

2.7M

2022-01-11

Đặng Văn Thành

Indiv

1.9%

1.9M

2020-06-30

Đặng Huỳnh Anh Tuấn

Indiv

1.8%

1.8M

2021-07-05

Nguyễn Thế Vinh

Indiv

0.6%

563,157

2020-06-30

Nguyễn Thái Hà

Indiv

0.2%

171,200

2020-06-30

Board & Management

Phan Thị Hồng Vân

General Director

Vũ Viết Bản

Member of Management Board

Top connections

SCR2 links GEG2 links SBT30.4%ATA14.5%

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Valuation Breakdown

VNG among Cyclicals

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

VNG among Cyclicals