SBT
Công ty Cổ phần Thành Thành Công - Biên Hòa
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 20.700
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 22.110
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.5816th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 23.2%92nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
SBT’s Beneish M‑Score is -1.6855 (75th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +0.81, indicating accounting aggressiveness rising relative to local peers rather than an absolute US‑calibrated manipulation cutoff. Earnings‑quality metrics are weak: overall Earnings Quality 23.7/100, very low cash conversion and receivables/revenue quality (0.0/100 each), and accruals quality only 65.3/100. Credit and solvency signals are also poor: Altman Z‑Score 1.61 (distress zone) and Piotroski F‑Score 2/9. Director‑deal registrations show a net negative registration of -32.38% of shares outstanding (more sales than purchases registered) between 2025‑10‑30 and 2026‑10‑30.
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.6855 (75th percentile among Vietnamese peers; year‑over‑year change +0.81). The M‑Score synthesizes eight ratios to flag likely earnings manipulation; the company is more aggressive versus most local peers and the score has moved materially year over year.
- DSRI = 1.3359. Days‑sales‑in‑receivables index above 1 suggests receivables (or revenue recognition terms) are growing faster than sales.
- GMI = 1.2777. Gross margin index >1 indicates gross margins have deteriorated, a condition that historically correlates with more aggressive accounting when firms try to hide margin weakness.
- TATA = 0.0867. Total accruals to assets positive at 8.67% of assets, signalling earnings include accruals rather than cash‑based performance.
- Earnings Quality = 23.7/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100. Operating profit is not converting into cash and receivables appear poor, both impairing the reliability of reported profit.
- Altman Z‑Score = 1.61 (distress zone). This score estimates distance to bankruptcy; 1.61 falls in the zone commonly associated with elevated financial distress risk.
- Piotroski F‑Score = 2/9. Weak fundamental score: poor profitability, liquidity/solvency, and operating performance signals.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 23.2% of total assets (92nd percentile). A large share of assets are tied in prepayments, loans receivable or long‑term receivables rather than trade receivables that rotate with sales.
- Cash conversion (3‑year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.58 (16th percentile). Over three years profits have not translated into operating cash flow, suggesting earnings may be supported by accruals or non‑cash items.
- Director‑deal registrations: 7 sale registrations (2 registrants; 377,539,427 shares) vs 14 purchase registrations (9 registrants; 74,868,097 shares); net registered volume = -32.38% of shares outstanding. These are registration intentions disclosed to the exchange and reflect more registered selling capacity than buying capacity in the period.
- SGI = 0.8744 (sales growth index <1). Sales growth has not been accelerating, which reduces one common motive for aggressive revenue recognition tied to rapid growth.
- DEPI = 0.9508 and LVGI = 0.9604. Depreciation index slightly below 1 and leverage growth index below 1 do not indicate sharp increases in depreciation manipulations or rapidly rising leverage versus the prior year.
- Accumulated losses: none. Undistributed earnings are positive and owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, so the company does not meet statutory loss conditions that would trigger the specific exchange tests.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) — none met. The audited annual statements do not meet the statutory criteria for listing cancellation under the cited decree.
Ownership is concentrated: Legendary Venture Fund I holds 15.8% and an individual, Đặng Huỳnh Ức My, holds 12.9%; the next largest institutional holders hold single‑digit stakes. The disclosed director‑deal registrations show net registered selling capacity (-32.38% of shares outstanding) over the last year, but registrations are intentions filed with the exchange, not evidence of executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 balance‑sheet line items and notes for 'Receivables and prepayments' (including loans receivable and other long‑term receivables) with the trade receivables schedule to identify composition and ageing of the 23.2% of assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the cash‑flow statement (operating cash flow) with reported net profit over the last three years to verify the cash conversion ratio of -0.58 and identify major non‑cash or working‑capital drivers.
- Inspect the auditor’s report and accounting policy notes for revenue recognition and estimates (including related‑party transactions) given DSRI = 1.3359 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100.
- Review the disclosures for related‑party transactions, prepayments to suppliers and loans to/from group entities in the notes to the financial statements to assess the nature and recoverability of the large non‑trade receivable balances.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.70
- P/S
- 0.74
- ROE
- 6.8%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- EPS
- 865
- BVPS
- 13.322
- Gross Margin
- 8.9%
- Net Margin
- 2.8%
- D/E
- 1.51
- Current Ratio
- 1.23
- Rev Growth
- −12.5%
- Profit Growth
- −8.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 20.70
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 935M
- Charter Capital
- 9,346B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT