Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 2.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.226
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.0521st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.8%31st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5585 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating its accounting accrual pattern is more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers though the absolute M-Score is above the US -1.78 cutoff. Component flags include a high AQI (2.8432) and DEPI (1.6197), while TATA is small (0.0111). Earnings-quality is mixed: overall score 69.9/100 with strong accruals and receivables quality but weak cash conversion (34.8/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.56 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5585 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers). This measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; the 78th percentile shows the company’s pattern is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers even though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.8432. AQI measures the rise in non-current or ‘‘less liquid’’ assets (e.g., long-term receivables, other non-operating assets) relative to assets; a value this high suggests substantial increases in asset categories that can be associated with earnings management or capitalisation of costs.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.6197. DEPI > 1 indicates depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior-period depreciation implied by gross PPE, which can signal slower depreciation (longer useful lives or revaluation) that inflates reported profits.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1038. LVGI > 1 measures increasing leverage year-over-year; this shows liabilities have grown faster than assets, raising balance-sheet risk.
- Cash-conversion component and measures: Earnings-Quality cash conversion = 34.8/100, and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.05 (21st percentile). These measure the extent to which reported profit has been translated into operating cash; the figures indicate profits are not converting into cash and are low relative to peers.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.56 (distress zone). The Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.56 places the company in a zone historically associated with financial distress.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. The F-Score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 3 indicates weak operational and accounting fundamentals.
- Accruals quality = 95.5/100. This measures persistence and conservatism in accrual accounting; a high score suggests accruals are of relatively high quality.
- Receivables quality = 94.2/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (31st percentile). These measures indicate receivables and non-trade receivable items are relatively small and of good quality versus peers.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0111 (about 1.11%). TATA measures the size of total accruals relative to assets; a low TATA means accruals are modest in absolute size.
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.8150 (<1). SGAI < 1 indicates SG&A expenses did not grow faster than sales, suggesting no immediate sign of expense capitalisation through reduced SG&A.
Ownership is highly concentrated among large institutions: Công ty Cổ Phần Ngoại Thương Kamaz 37.6%, Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam 36.0%, and Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Quốc tế Tân Đại Tây Dương 14.5%; three institutions collectively hold 88.1%. Two individuals hold small stakes (3.4% and 0.9%). This structure implies strong block-holder control and likely related-party / group transactions consistent with a large listed group presence.
- Compare the year‑over‑year change in ‘Other long‑term receivables’, ‘Loans to related parties’ and ‘Prepayments’ in the FY2025 notes to the AQI components to see which asset lines drove AQI = 2.8432.
- Reconcile depreciation policy and PPE schedules (useful lives and accumulated depreciation) against DEPI = 1.6197 to see whether changes in estimated useful lives or revaluations explain the DEPI movement.
- Match operating cash flow and profit reconciliation in the cash‑flow statement and the accruals note to confirm the small TATA = 0.0111 and the 3‑year cash conversion ratio = -0.05 (check items such as changes in working capital, non‑cash items, and one‑off adjustments).
- Review related‑party disclosures and intercompany balances in the notes (schedules for receivables/payables to affiliates) given the high ownership concentration and LVGI = 1.1038 (rising leverage) to identify any material related‑party financing or guarantees.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.15
- P/S
- 0.02
- ROE
- 8.3%
- ROA
- 2.1%
- EPS
- 1.325
- BVPS
- 15.091
- Gross Margin
- 10.5%
- Net Margin
- 1.4%
- D/E
- 1.07
- Current Ratio
- 1.01
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.11
- Div Yield
- 34.8%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 2.7M
- Charter Capital
- 27.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Ô tô và phụ tùng
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất ô tô
- Company Type
- CT