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VMA

Công ty Cổ phần Công nghiệp Ô tô - Vinacomin

VietnamCyclicalsÔ tô và phụ tùngUPCOMCT
2.300
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+40.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.226

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Ô tô và phụ tùng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Ô tô và phụ tùng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→14.70B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+40.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.226
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA14.7 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1231121591551121211281181199898109104
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·65612162332120.738
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·7773135111838611310410282758281
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·10.070.130.70.900.50.050.10.60.50.1
Net Inventories
·39341729121112121513192215
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·39341729121212121614192315
Other current assets
·0.90.90.230.70.80.50.050.90.4320.05
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000000.05
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·59414648444343322120171813
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·57414647434242312020171711
Tangible fixed assets
·57414647434142312020171711
Intagible fixed assets
·00.050.10.30.20.2000.030.10.30.30.03
Other non-current assets
·10.60.040.51.0110.30000.72
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·10.60.040.51.0110.30000.72
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·182154205203156163172150140118115127117
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·14110815615310510313211110589859888
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·12210715415310510313110910388849888
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·241243000000000.3
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00060.010.30.40.100.800.010
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·19120.30.30.61211.00.50.030.03
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·19120000000000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·41464950516039393630302928
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·34343535353535353430292928
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·27272727272727272727272727
Other Reserves
·00000000.70.70.70.70.70.7
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·3333303322210.7
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·4355544440000
Budget sources and other funds
·71213151625542−0.3100
Budget sources and other funds
··8991221042−0.3100
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·182154205203156163172150140118115127117
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·27272727272727272727272727

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Fair
Accrual Quality
96
Cash Conversion
35
Receivables
94
Margin Stability
50

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.56 · 78th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −2.18
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.010
GMI
1.008
AQI
2.843
SGI
1.048
DEPI
1.620
SGAI
0.815
TATA
0.011
LVGI
1.104

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.0521st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.8%31st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.5585 (78th percentile vs Vietnamese peers), indicating its accounting accrual pattern is more aggressive than most Vietnamese listed peers though the absolute M-Score is above the US -1.78 cutoff. Component flags include a high AQI (2.8432) and DEPI (1.6197), while TATA is small (0.0111). Earnings-quality is mixed: overall score 69.9/100 with strong accruals and receivables quality but weak cash conversion (34.8/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.56 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 (weak fundamentals).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.5585 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers). This measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation patterns; the 78th percentile shows the company’s pattern is more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers even though the US -1.78 cutoff is not directly calibrated to Vietnam.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.8432. AQI measures the rise in non-current or ‘‘less liquid’’ assets (e.g., long-term receivables, other non-operating assets) relative to assets; a value this high suggests substantial increases in asset categories that can be associated with earnings management or capitalisation of costs.
  • DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.6197. DEPI > 1 indicates depreciation expense has fallen relative to prior-period depreciation implied by gross PPE, which can signal slower depreciation (longer useful lives or revaluation) that inflates reported profits.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1038. LVGI > 1 measures increasing leverage year-over-year; this shows liabilities have grown faster than assets, raising balance-sheet risk.
  • Cash-conversion component and measures: Earnings-Quality cash conversion = 34.8/100, and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.05 (21st percentile). These measure the extent to which reported profit has been translated into operating cash; the figures indicate profits are not converting into cash and are low relative to peers.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.56 (distress zone). The Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.56 places the company in a zone historically associated with financial distress.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. The F-Score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 3 indicates weak operational and accounting fundamentals.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 95.5/100. This measures persistence and conservatism in accrual accounting; a high score suggests accruals are of relatively high quality.
  • Receivables quality = 94.2/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.8% of total assets (31st percentile). These measures indicate receivables and non-trade receivable items are relatively small and of good quality versus peers.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = 0.0111 (about 1.11%). TATA measures the size of total accruals relative to assets; a low TATA means accruals are modest in absolute size.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 0.8150 (<1). SGAI < 1 indicates SG&A expenses did not grow faster than sales, suggesting no immediate sign of expense capitalisation through reduced SG&A.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated among large institutions: Công ty Cổ Phần Ngoại Thương Kamaz 37.6%, Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam 36.0%, and Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Quốc tế Tân Đại Tây Dương 14.5%; three institutions collectively hold 88.1%. Two individuals hold small stakes (3.4% and 0.9%). This structure implies strong block-holder control and likely related-party / group transactions consistent with a large listed group presence.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑over‑year change in ‘Other long‑term receivables’, ‘Loans to related parties’ and ‘Prepayments’ in the FY2025 notes to the AQI components to see which asset lines drove AQI = 2.8432.
  • Reconcile depreciation policy and PPE schedules (useful lives and accumulated depreciation) against DEPI = 1.6197 to see whether changes in estimated useful lives or revaluations explain the DEPI movement.
  • Match operating cash flow and profit reconciliation in the cash‑flow statement and the accruals note to confirm the small TATA = 0.0111 and the 3‑year cash conversion ratio = -0.05 (check items such as changes in working capital, non‑cash items, and one‑off adjustments).
  • Review related‑party disclosures and intercompany balances in the notes (schedules for receivables/payables to affiliates) given the high ownership concentration and LVGI = 1.1038 (rising leverage) to identify any material related‑party financing or guarantees.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.56
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−1.23
Negative
Composite
95
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.77×Interest Burden0.96×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover1.40×Leverage4.46=ROE8.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−17.9%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
−17.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1.74P/E
P/B
0.15
P/S
0.02
ROE
8.3%
ROA
2.1%
EPS
1.325
BVPS
15.091
Gross Margin
10.5%
Net Margin
1.4%
D/E
1.07
Current Ratio
1.01
EV/EBITDA
3.11
Div Yield
34.8%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
2.7M
Charter Capital
27.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Industry (ICB L3)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Sub-industry
Sản xuất ô tô
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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