VIN
Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 16.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 17.297
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 21 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.3212th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 8.6%78th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M‑Score is 0.9219 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +0.55, signalling unusually aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers and a recent move in the score. Earnings quality is mixed: accruals quality is high (90.8/100) and receivables quality is perfect (100/100), but cash conversion, margin quality and revenue quality score 0/100; Altman Z‑Score is 11.67 (a large distance from bankruptcy) and Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral). The statutory loss test that would trigger HOSE/HNX delisting does not apply because the company is traded on UPCoM.
- High Beneish M‑Score 0.9219 and Vietnam peer percentile 96th — this measures a composite of eight forensic indicators and here places VIN among the most aggressive 4% of Vietnamese peers.
- M‑Score year‑over‑year change +0.55 — the score moved materially year over year; consecutive M‑Scores are weakly correlated, so the trajectory is a notable secondary cue.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 5.4036 — this component measures deterioration in gross margins; values >1 suggest worsening margins year over year.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.9753 — measures sales growth; high values can be a normal growth signal but also enable aggressive accounting to mask margin pressure.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3‑year) = -1.32 (12th percentile) — this measures whether reported profit is converting into operating cash; a strongly negative ratio and a low percentile versus peers indicate profits are not turning into cash.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0230 combined with low cash conversion — while accruals level is small, the mismatch between reported profits and cash flow is a concern.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.6% of total assets (78th percentile) — measures non‑trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables); being high versus peers suggests significant non‑operating receivables on the balance sheet.
- Several earnings‑quality components at 0/100 (cash conversion, margin quality, revenue quality) — these metrics measure persistence and cash backing of margins and revenues and score poorly here.
- Accruals quality 90.8/100 — this measures the extent to which accruals are consistent and low relative to peers; a high score suggests reported earnings are not dominated by aggressive accruals.
- Receivables quality 100.0/100 — this measures whether receivables behaviour is consistent with revenue and collectible; the perfect score indicates receivables trends do not look manipulative by the receiver‑side tests used.
- Altman Z‑Score 11.67 — this distance‑to‑distress metric indicates a large buffer from the model's bankruptcy thresholds.
- Piotroski F‑Score 4/9 — while not a strong score, it is neutral rather than deeply negative; it reflects a mixed set of fundamentals.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holds 95.4% (institutional majority control), with the next largest individual holders at 0.1% or less. No director‑deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations would be exchange filings of intended trades and are distinct from executed trades).
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and net profit in the cash flow statement and the management discussion to confirm the components producing the three‑year cash conversion of -1.32.
- Inspect the notes for 'receivables and prepayments' and the related‑party disclosures to detail the 8.6% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (identify amounts that are prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, or long‑term receivables).
- Reconcile total accruals (income statement profit versus cash from operations) with the balance‑sheet movements shown in the accruals or working‑capital note to validate the TATA = 0.0230 calculation.
- Review the revenue and margin notes (revenue recognition policies, segment schedules and cost of goods sold breakdown) to assess why margin quality and revenue quality scored 0/100 while accruals and receivables scored highly.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.73
- P/S
- 0.84
- ROE
- 2.1%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- EPS
- 457
- BVPS
- 22.098
- Gross Margin
- 2.5%
- Net Margin
- 2.4%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 8.09
- Rev Growth
- +197.5%
- Profit Growth
- −60.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 3.7%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.5M
- Charter Capital
- 255B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
- Company Type
- CT