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VIN

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam

VietnamConstructionHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpVận tảiUPCOMCT
16.200
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+6.8%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.200
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
17.297

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−8.41B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.200
Calibrated value vs last close→+6.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
17.297
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−8.4 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·252190216264215176231283246253257271392
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·381540282312345347576279139
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·10951132169129106130161103107716466
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·991194064615767689489123123178
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·50400.81.00.80.10.030.050.112163678
Net Inventories
·24320.220.40.60.80.40.837
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·24320.220.40.60.80.40.837
Other current assets
·520.9220.010.030.030.10.080.112
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.030.03
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·344406378353327332294219203169168201141
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.70.70.70.40.40.40.40.40.30.300
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·10.70.70.70.40.40.40.40.40.30.300
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·28281617181922242730343840
Tangible fixed assets
·1719778912141721242830
Intagible fixed assets
·11101010101010101010101010
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·31437536033530831227219417513813316298
Investments in associate companies
·256316304280222192166153127108988353
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·58585855553535373131318048
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00−20000−0.3−0.5−0.9−0.7−0.5−3
Other non-current assets
·0.710.40.80.30.20.20.50.80.20.212
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.710.40.80.30.20.20.50.80.20.20.31
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·597596594617542508525502449422425472533
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3124334744489986614965133227
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3123324543479885614865133227
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.700000000000.30.2
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.21120.50.50.50.20.20.70.20.070.07
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·565572561570498461427416388373360338304
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·565572561570498461427416388373360338304
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·255255255255255255255255255255255255255
Other Reserves
·0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
Difference upon Assets Revaluation
·000000000−3000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0000000002221
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·3083153043132402031701591311171018148
Minority Interest
·0000000000022
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·597596594617542508525502449422425472533
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000039393900
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·255255255255255255255255255255255255255
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·2222222222200
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
43
Weak
Accrual Quality
91
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 0.92 · 96th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.55
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.279
GMI
5.404
AQI
0.837
SGI
2.975
DEPI
0.654
SGAI
0.452
TATA
0.023
LVGI
1.359

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−1.3212th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
8.6%78th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M‑Score is 0.9219 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year‑over‑year increase of +0.55, signalling unusually aggressive accounting metrics relative to peers and a recent move in the score. Earnings quality is mixed: accruals quality is high (90.8/100) and receivables quality is perfect (100/100), but cash conversion, margin quality and revenue quality score 0/100; Altman Z‑Score is 11.67 (a large distance from bankruptcy) and Piotroski F‑Score is 4/9 (neutral). The statutory loss test that would trigger HOSE/HNX delisting does not apply because the company is traded on UPCoM.

Red Flags
  • High Beneish M‑Score 0.9219 and Vietnam peer percentile 96th — this measures a composite of eight forensic indicators and here places VIN among the most aggressive 4% of Vietnamese peers.
  • M‑Score year‑over‑year change +0.55 — the score moved materially year over year; consecutive M‑Scores are weakly correlated, so the trajectory is a notable secondary cue.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 5.4036 — this component measures deterioration in gross margins; values >1 suggest worsening margins year over year.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 2.9753 — measures sales growth; high values can be a normal growth signal but also enable aggressive accounting to mask margin pressure.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3‑year) = -1.32 (12th percentile) — this measures whether reported profit is converting into operating cash; a strongly negative ratio and a low percentile versus peers indicate profits are not turning into cash.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0230 combined with low cash conversion — while accruals level is small, the mismatch between reported profits and cash flow is a concern.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 8.6% of total assets (78th percentile) — measures non‑trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long‑term receivables); being high versus peers suggests significant non‑operating receivables on the balance sheet.
  • Several earnings‑quality components at 0/100 (cash conversion, margin quality, revenue quality) — these metrics measure persistence and cash backing of margins and revenues and score poorly here.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality 90.8/100 — this measures the extent to which accruals are consistent and low relative to peers; a high score suggests reported earnings are not dominated by aggressive accruals.
  • Receivables quality 100.0/100 — this measures whether receivables behaviour is consistent with revenue and collectible; the perfect score indicates receivables trends do not look manipulative by the receiver‑side tests used.
  • Altman Z‑Score 11.67 — this distance‑to‑distress metric indicates a large buffer from the model's bankruptcy thresholds.
  • Piotroski F‑Score 4/9 — while not a strong score, it is neutral rather than deeply negative; it reflects a mixed set of fundamentals.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holds 95.4% (institutional majority control), with the next largest individual holders at 0.1% or less. No director‑deal registrations were provided in the data (registrations would be exchange filings of intended trades and are distinct from executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 operating cash flow and net profit in the cash flow statement and the management discussion to confirm the components producing the three‑year cash conversion of -1.32.
  • Inspect the notes for 'receivables and prepayments' and the related‑party disclosures to detail the 8.6% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle (identify amounts that are prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, or long‑term receivables).
  • Reconcile total accruals (income statement profit versus cash from operations) with the balance‑sheet movements shown in the accruals or working‑capital note to validate the TATA = 0.0230 calculation.
  • Review the revenue and margin notes (revenue recognition policies, segment schedules and cost of goods sold breakdown) to assess why margin quality and revenue quality scored 0/100 while accruals and receivables scored highly.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
11.67
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.02
Positive
Composite
27
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.97×Interest Burden1.16×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover0.83×Leverage1.06=ROE2.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.9%
Volatility
76.6%
Max Drawdown
−28.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
35.43P/E
P/B
0.73
P/S
0.84
ROE
2.1%
ROA
2.0%
EPS
457
BVPS
22.098
Gross Margin
2.5%
Net Margin
2.4%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
8.09
Rev Growth
+197.5%
Profit Growth
−60.0%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
3.7%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
25.5M
Charter Capital
255B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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