VHG
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Trung Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.437
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 7.3%75th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.93×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 10Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.2438 (Vietnam peer percentile 57th) with a year-over-year increase of +3.61, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive territory relative to Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive in the Vietnamese context. Other signals include a very low Altman Z-Score of -5.42 (distress zone), a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 (mixed to neutral fundamentals), and weak earnings-quality sub-scores: overall Earnings Quality 42.6/100 with especially poor cash conversion (0/100), margin quality (0/100) and revenue quality (16.8/100).
- Altman Z-Score = -5.42 measures distance to bankruptcy and places the company in the distress zone (very weak solvency signal).
- Earnings Quality overall = 42.6/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100, indicating poor cash generation relative to reported profits and weak margin sustainability.
- Revenue quality = 16.8/100 and TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0753: revenue-driven quality is low while accruals are non-trivial, suggesting some earnings are not cash-backed (TATA measures accrual intensity).
- SGAI = 1.6306 (Selling, General & Admin expense index) measures a 63% year-over-year rise in SGA relative to sales, which can signal expense recognition or operating deterioration.
- Sustained net losses: the parent shows net loss for four consecutive years up to FY2019, and the audited statements report losses in each of the latest 3 years (relevant to statutory loss tests).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.1% of total assets (62nd percentile) flags non-trade receivables (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) that warrant disclosure review.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +3.61: the M-Score moved materially in one year (Beneish DSRI/GMI/AQI components show mixed signals), which is a secondary cue because consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly in cross-section.
- Beneish components: DSRI = 0.9737 (days sales receivable index slightly below 1) and AQI = 0.8237 (asset quality index below 1) — these metrics do not show the classical large increases that often accompany severe earnings manipulation flags (DSRI <1 suggests receivables are not expanding faster than sales; AQI <1 implies no large rise in non-current asset write-ups relative to assets).
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 measures good receivable composition and collectibility metrics as scored here.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 indicates some positive fundamental anchors (profitability/efficiency/liquidity signals present enough to be neutral-to-favourable rather than outright distress on operating performance).
- Owner's equity excluding minority interest is positive, so the balance sheet is not fully eroded to negative equity even though accumulated losses = 0.86x paid-in capital is material.
Top shareholders are individual investors with the largest stakes at 5.3%, 5.2% and 4.6%; ownership appears dispersed without a single dominant controlling shareholder listed. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.
- Compare the line items in the notes for ‘receivables and other non-trade receivables’ to the receivables outside the trade cycle figure (3.1% of total assets) to identify composition (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
- Reconcile total accruals (TATA = 0.0753) to the cash-flow statement: compare operating cash flow to reported profit and inspect the notes for significant non-cash adjustments or one-off items driving the accruals.
- Review the SGA note/schedule to explain the SGA index rise (SGAI = 1.6306): check year-over-year SGA amounts, any restructuring or provisions, and whether unusual items are included in SGA.
- Confirm the statutory loss disclosures: verify the audited financial statements and the parent-company profit/loss line showing net losses for the last 3+ years and the accumulated losses equal to 0.86x paid-in capital.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.70
- P/S
- —
- ROE
- −3.5%
- ROA
- −3.3%
- EPS
- −31
- BVPS
- 880
- Gross Margin
- 0.0%
- Net Margin
- 0.0%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 0.70
- Profit Growth
- +186.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 150M
- Charter Capital
- 1,500B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng công nghiệp
- Sub-industry
- Công nghiệp phức hợp
- Company Type
- CT