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VHG

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Trung Nam

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpHàng công nghiệpUPCOMCT
1.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
1.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.437

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng công nghiệp→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hàng công nghiệp” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→−8.72B
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.500
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
1.437
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA−8.7 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·5121314383771661771861,325442142·
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.000.020.040.070.020.040.070.70.523907030·
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.040.070.070.090.20.050.050.050.090.0910133·
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·412131338346862168165900343100·
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·101010101010101110654417317·
Net Inventories
·000000005162120.7·
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2779999914172120.7·
Other current assets
·0.30.30.30.20.1333333139·
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·00000000000103·
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1341351371401422332573934931,529563630421·
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000000700.717·
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000000700.717·
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·00000657075870.50.8181164·
Tangible fixed assets
·00000657075870.50.765·
Intagible fixed assets
·00000000000.040.10.2·
Investment in properties
·000000000009191·
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1341351371401421031222523451,34831226085·
Investments in associate companies
·24224224224224210312215201,0162571200·
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·00000001385173325514085·
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−108−106−104−102−10000−38−1720000·
Other non-current assets
·0000089914009765·
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0000089914006365·
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1391481501531802713294596701,7151,8881,072563·
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·71111131344452021491017312799·
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·7111113131574657517212799·
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000660596462·
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.50.50.50.50.50.030.210.070.29756·
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0000029381569250.500·
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000225000·
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·1321371391401672262842575211,7051,715945434·
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·1321371391401672262842575211,7051,715945434·
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,500750375·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−1,394−1,390−1,387−1,386−1,360−1,336−1,285−1,274−1,0161631741019·
Minority Interest
·00000000000030·
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1391481501531802713294596701,7151,8881,072563·
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000019500·
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,500750375·
Good will (Bn. VND)
·00000000000340·
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0000036425112524450·

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
50
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2019
75th–90th
M −2.24 · 57th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.61
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.974
GMI
0.451
AQI
0.824
SGI
1.124
DEPI
1.024
SGAI
1.631
TATA
0.075
LVGI
0.192

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
7.3%75th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.93×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
10Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company’s Beneish M-Score is -2.2438 (Vietnam peer percentile 57th) with a year-over-year increase of +3.61, indicating accounting metrics have moved toward more aggressive territory relative to Vietnamese peers though the absolute US cutoff (-1.78) is not directly decisive in the Vietnamese context. Other signals include a very low Altman Z-Score of -5.42 (distress zone), a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 (mixed to neutral fundamentals), and weak earnings-quality sub-scores: overall Earnings Quality 42.6/100 with especially poor cash conversion (0/100), margin quality (0/100) and revenue quality (16.8/100).

Red Flags
  • Altman Z-Score = -5.42 measures distance to bankruptcy and places the company in the distress zone (very weak solvency signal).
  • Earnings Quality overall = 42.6/100, with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100, indicating poor cash generation relative to reported profits and weak margin sustainability.
  • Revenue quality = 16.8/100 and TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0753: revenue-driven quality is low while accruals are non-trivial, suggesting some earnings are not cash-backed (TATA measures accrual intensity).
  • SGAI = 1.6306 (Selling, General & Admin expense index) measures a 63% year-over-year rise in SGA relative to sales, which can signal expense recognition or operating deterioration.
  • Sustained net losses: the parent shows net loss for four consecutive years up to FY2019, and the audited statements report losses in each of the latest 3 years (relevant to statutory loss tests).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.1% of total assets (62nd percentile) flags non-trade receivables (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) that warrant disclosure review.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change +3.61: the M-Score moved materially in one year (Beneish DSRI/GMI/AQI components show mixed signals), which is a secondary cue because consecutive-year M-Scores correlate weakly in cross-section.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish components: DSRI = 0.9737 (days sales receivable index slightly below 1) and AQI = 0.8237 (asset quality index below 1) — these metrics do not show the classical large increases that often accompany severe earnings manipulation flags (DSRI <1 suggests receivables are not expanding faster than sales; AQI <1 implies no large rise in non-current asset write-ups relative to assets).
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 measures good receivable composition and collectibility metrics as scored here.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 indicates some positive fundamental anchors (profitability/efficiency/liquidity signals present enough to be neutral-to-favourable rather than outright distress on operating performance).
  • Owner's equity excluding minority interest is positive, so the balance sheet is not fully eroded to negative equity even though accumulated losses = 0.86x paid-in capital is material.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are individual investors with the largest stakes at 5.3%, 5.2% and 4.6%; ownership appears dispersed without a single dominant controlling shareholder listed. No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line items in the notes for ‘receivables and other non-trade receivables’ to the receivables outside the trade cycle figure (3.1% of total assets) to identify composition (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile total accruals (TATA = 0.0753) to the cash-flow statement: compare operating cash flow to reported profit and inspect the notes for significant non-cash adjustments or one-off items driving the accruals.
  • Review the SGA note/schedule to explain the SGA index rise (SGAI = 1.6306): check year-over-year SGA amounts, any restructuring or provisions, and whether unusual items are included in SGA.
  • Confirm the statutory loss disclosures: verify the audited financial statements and the parent-company profit/loss line showing net losses for the last 3+ years and the accumulated losses equal to 0.86x paid-in capital.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
11.93
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.59
Negative
Composite
27
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.18×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−15.91×Turnover0.03×Leverage1.16=ROE−9.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
−27.3%
Volatility
73.8%
Max Drawdown
−31.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
1.70
P/S
—
ROE
−3.5%
ROA
−3.3%
EPS
−31
BVPS
880
Gross Margin
0.0%
Net Margin
0.0%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
0.70
Profit Growth
+186.5%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
150M
Charter Capital
1,500B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng công nghiệp
Sub-industry
Công nghiệp phức hợp
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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