VCP
Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Năng lượng VCP
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 27.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 29.924
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.7771st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 27.2%94th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.2145 (84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and has risen by +0.47 year-over-year, which signals relatively more aggressive accounting behavior versus peers rather than an absolute US-calibrated manipulator cutoff. Other signals: a very high DSRI (1.8292) and low TATA (0.0219) feed into the M-Score; earnings-quality is weak on receivables and revenue (both 0.0/100) while accruals quality scores strongly (91.2/100). The Altman Z-Score is 1.37 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Beneish DSRI = 1.8292 (days-sales-receivables index measures widening receivables relative to sales; a value >1 suggests receivables growing faster than sales).
- Beneish AQI = 1.2522 (quality of accruals index greater than 1 indicates accruals composition has shifted toward lower quality accruals relative to peers).
- Earnings-Quality: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (both measure the reliability of reported revenues and receivable collectibility; scores at 0 indicate material concerns in those dimensions).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 27.2% of total assets (94th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; this line captures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is unusually large).
- Cash conversion (3y operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.77 (71st percentile; this low-ish ratio indicates profits are not fully converting into operating cash flows).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.37 (classified in the distress zone; this composite measures distance to bankruptcy using liquidity, profitability and leverage inputs).
- Beneish year-over-year change = +0.47 (the M-Score has shifted materially compared with last year; consecutive-year M-Scores have low serial correlation, so change is an informative secondary cue).
- Beneish TATA = 0.0219 (total accruals to total assets is low, which usually indicates reported earnings are not driven by large accruals flows).
- Earnings-Quality: Accruals quality = 91.2/100 (this high score indicates the accruals component appears consistent and of relatively high quality).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (a neutral fundamentals score: neither strongly adverse nor strongly healthy across profitability, liquidity and operational efficiency tests).
- SGAI = 0.7504 (selling, general & administrative expenses index below 1 suggests SGA is not exploding relative to sales growth).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; parent net loss count = 0 years up to FY2025 (the statutory financial statements do not show the balance-sheet loss conditions some listing rules target).
Top shareholders are concentrated among institutions: Công Ty Cổ Phần Dh Holdings 17.6%, Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vsd 14.3%, Công ty TNHH MTV V - Trade 9.2%, Tổng Công ty Sông Đà 7.1%, and an individual Lê Quốc Hương 5.9%. The largest holdings are institutional and together imply meaningful block ownership but not a single controlling owner disclosed here.
- Compare the line(s) in the 2025 balance sheet and notes for 'receivables and prepayments' to total assets and reconcile the 27.2% figure (identify amounts classified as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables).
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement operating cash flow for FY2023–FY2025 with reported net profit to reproduce the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 1.77 and inspect drivers in the operating cash-flow reconciliation (changes in working capital, non-cash items).
- Inspect revenue recognition notes and the accounts-receivable aging schedule in the 2025 annual report to verify the components that produce DSRI = 1.8292 and to test collectibility assumptions or related-party balances.
- Review the audited equity and retained-earnings lines (parent) and the auditor’s report to confirm there are no accumulated losses and that owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive, noting UPCoM listing status where the HOSE/HNX statutory delisting rule does not apply.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.03
- P/S
- 0.97
- ROE
- 22.6%
- ROA
- 7.9%
- EPS
- 5.269
- BVPS
- 25.621
- Gross Margin
- 34.8%
- Net Margin
- 21.0%
- D/E
- 1.42
- Current Ratio
- 2.30
- Rev Growth
- +29.0%
- Profit Growth
- +45.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.39
- Div Yield
- 2.3%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 83.8M
- Charter Capital
- 838B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT