Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.400
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.207
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −6.744th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 40.5%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows several accounting signals of rising aggressiveness versus Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.5655 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.36, and an earnings-quality score of 39.8/100 driven by very weak cash conversion and revenue quality. Balance-sheet and liquidity risk are also evident: an Altman Z-Score of 1.31 (distress zone) and a three-year cash-conversion metric of -6.74 (4th percentile) indicate profits are not translating into operating cash.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.5655 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to financial ratios). This score sits at the 78th percentile versus Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and moved +0.36 year-over-year, indicating an upward trajectory in the manipulation signal relative to last year.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.8137 (measures sales growth; rapid growth can invite aggressive recognition).
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 1.2684 (measures deterioration in gross margins; >1 suggests worsening margins versus prior year).
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.3668 (measures rising leverage; >1 indicates leverage increased year-over-year).
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.1092 (measures changes in depreciation policy; >1 can signal depreciation slowing or asset-life extension).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0623 (measures accruals relative to assets; positive accruals can indicate earnings not backed by cash).
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (these measure operating cash conversion and revenue reliability, respectively).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.31 (measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.31 lies in the distress zone).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -6.74, ranked at the 4th percentile among VN non-financials (low — reported profit is not converting into cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 40.5% of total assets (98th percentile among VN peers), indicating a large portion of assets are prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables rather than trade receivables.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (measures how receivables behave relative to revenue and collectibility; this score indicates strong metrics on conventional receivables).
- Accruals quality = 75.1/100 (measures quality of accruals; a relatively high score suggests reported accruals are less suggestive of manipulation).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures nine fundamental signals; a middle score indicating neutral operating and financial fundamentals rather than clear deterioration).
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive; statutory loss tests under the exchange rules are not met (the audited annual statements do not meet the statutory criteria for listing cancellation under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended).
Ownership is highly concentrated: an individual (Hoàng Trọng Đức) holds 40.2% and four other individuals hold between 5.5% and 9.3%, together suggesting strong insider control. Director-deal registrations from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 1 purchase registration (500,000 shares) and 0 sale registrations, with net registered volume +0.52% of shares outstanding (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare the FY2025 'Receivables and prepayments' note and the long-term receivables schedule to verify the components that make up the 40.5% of total assets reported as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the cash-flow statement (operating cash flow) with parent profit to confirm the three-year operating cash flow / net profit trend that produced the -6.74 figure.
- Review the depreciation policy note and fixed-asset schedules to explain the DEPI = 1.1092 signal (changes in useful lives or depreciation method).
- Inspect related-party disclosures and the schedule of loans to/from related parties to see whether a material portion of receivables outside the trade cycle are related-party prepayments or loans.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.72
- P/S
- 1.44
- ROE
- 2.4%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- EPS
- 266
- BVPS
- 11.081
- Gross Margin
- 11.8%
- Net Margin
- 4.3%
- D/E
- 0.27
- Current Ratio
- 1.12
- Rev Growth
- +81.4%
- Profit Growth
- +77.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 21.82
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 96.1M
- Charter Capital
- 961B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT