UTT
Công ty Cổ phần Môi trường Nam Thành
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 9.200
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.827
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading volume could not be confirmed.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
Also note
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.249th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%9th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.18×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting-quality concerns: a Beneish M-Score of -1.3773 (82nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +1.39) signals more aggressive accounting relative to peers and a rising trajectory. Earnings-quality is weak (31.4/100) driven by very poor cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit = -2.24, 9th percentile) and low margin and accrual scores, while receivables appear immaterial (0.1% of total assets). Financial-distress indicators are also weak: Altman Z-Score 1.74 (distress zone) and Piotroski F-Score 3/9.
- Beneish M-Score -1.3773 (measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation); 82nd percentile among Vietnamese peers and YoY change +1.39 (shows an upward move relative to last year).
- Earnings-Quality Score 31.4/100 (measures overall earnings reliability); Accruals quality 26.9/100 and Cash conversion 0.0/100 (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -2.24, 9th percentile), indicating profits are not converting into cash.
- Altman Z-Score 1.74 (measures distance to bankruptcy); falls in the distress zone used to gauge solvency risk.
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9 (measures fundamental strength); a low score indicating weak profitability, leverage/liquidity, or operating efficiency.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.2242 (measures accruals magnitude); relatively high accruals suggest earnings may be driven by non-cash items.
- GMI (1.1896) >1 (measures deterioration in gross margin) and LVGI 1.1875 (leverage growth) — both components point to margin pressure and rising leverage.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (9th percentile) and Receivables quality 100.0/100 (measures size and quality of receivables); suggests limited long-term/related-party receivable exposure reported on the balance sheet.
- DSRI 0.9765 (days sales in receivables index measures receivables growth relative to sales) below 1.0, implying receivables are not growing faster than sales.
- SGAI 0.8171 (selling, general & admin expense index) <1.0 (measures SGA growth vs sales), indicating SGA expenses have not grown faster than sales.
Ownership is concentrated: a state-linked institution (Công ty TNHH MTV Môi Trường Đô Thị Hà Nội) holds 60.0%, with two individuals holding 17.0% and 10.5% respectively. Such concentration and group/state ownership can influence related-party transactions, strategic reporting choices and corporate governance dynamics; director-deal registrations were not provided in the data.
- Compare the three-year operating cash flows and the cash-flow-from-operations line in the audited cash-flow statements to the consolidated net profit to confirm the -2.24 cash-conversion ratio and reconcile major non-cash adjustments.
- Inspect the notes for 'Receivables', 'Loans and advances to customers/related parties', and 'Prepayments' to verify the 0.1% of total assets figure and to identify any large balances outside the normal trade cycle.
- Read the 'Related-party transactions' and 'Balances with affiliated entities' notes for intra-group loans, guarantees or off-balance arrangements given the 60% institutional group ownership.
- Check the statement of changes in equity and the accumulated-losses / retained-earnings line to confirm accumulated losses = 0.18x paid-in capital and to verify parent equity remains positive as stated.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.12
- P/S
- 0.35
- ROE
- 0.7%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- EPS
- 57
- BVPS
- 8.195
- Gross Margin
- 15.7%
- Net Margin
- 0.2%
- D/E
- 1.09
- Current Ratio
- 1.10
- EV/EBITDA
- 15.21
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.0M
- Charter Capital
- 30.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
- Sub-industry
- Chất thải & Môi trường
- Company Type
- CT