Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 19.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 18.203
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.4029th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 1.6%44th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.15×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals that warrant attention: a Beneish M-Score of -0.3126 (92nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and a year-over-year increase of +1.82 indicate the company scores as more aggressive relative to peers and that accounting metrics have shifted materially year-on-year. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall (Earnings Quality 11.7/100) driven by very poor receivables and margin quality, while solvency and fundamentals appear comfortable (Altman Z-Score 7.25 in the ‘safe’ zone; Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.3126 (this score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation; the company is at the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning it is more aggressive than most peers; note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly applicable to Vietnam).
- Beneish DSRI = 2.7388 (Days’ sales receivable index; a high DSRI suggests receivables or revenue recognition have increased faster than sales).
- Beneish DEPI = 1.5022 (Depreciation index >1 suggests slower depreciation or changes in useful lives/estimates that increase reported profits).
- Earnings Quality overall = 11.7/100 with Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100 (these scores measure the degree to which accruals, receivables and margins look reliable; zero values indicate very weak signal quality in those dimensions).
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.40 (29th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low ratio means reported profits have translated poorly into operating cash flow).
- TATA (total accruals) = 0.2130 (elevated accruals relative to assets / profits can signal earnings managed via accruals rather than cash).
- Director-deal registrations during 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 9 sale registrations (7 traders; 1,201,800 shares; 6 registrations without a disclosed volume) and 5 purchase registrations (3 traders; 500,000 shares; 4 without a disclosed volume) — these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades, but show more registered sales than purchases in the period.
- Altman Z-Score = 7.25 (this score measures distance to bankruptcy; 7.25 sits well into the ‘safe’ zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk on standard balance-sheet metrics).
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (this score measures nine fundamental improvements; a 6 indicates generally neutral-to-positive fundamentals).
- AQI (asset quality index) = 0.3957 (lower AQI indicates fewer non-current asset write-ups or abnormal increases in asset capitalization), and LVGI = 0.9310 (low leverage growth index vs prior period).
- SGI = 0.7653 and GMI = 0.8647 (sales growth index and gross margin index below 1 imply no aggressive sales growth or margin deterioration in the raw ratios used by Beneish).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 1.6% of total assets (44th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials), which is not unusually large relative to peers.
Ownership is concentrated in individuals: Phạm Thị Huy holds 23.5%, followed by several other individuals with single-digit stakes (8.0%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.6%). This structure indicates a tightly held company with dominant individual shareholders; director-deal registrations (more sale registrations than purchases) show insiders have registered intentions to trade over the past year.
- Compare the change in trade receivables and the DSRI driver: read the notes to trade receivables and revenue recognition in the FY2025 annual report and quantify how much of receivable growth is due to timing versus related-party balances.
- Reconcile depreciation and PPE notes with DEPI = 1.5022: check changes in useful lives, asset additions, disposals and depreciation methods in the fixed-asset note for FY2025 and FY2024.
- Match operating cash flow and profit components: verify the reconciliation of profit to cash flows (cash flow statement and accruals schedule) to explain the three-year cash conversion ratio of 0.40.
- Inspect related-party schedules and the prepayments/loans line items to confirm the composition of the 1.6% of assets in receivables outside the trade cycle (notes, schedules or line items for prepayments, loans to related parties, and long-term receivables).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.05
- P/S
- 2.22
- ROE
- 31.8%
- ROA
- 27.1%
- EPS
- 2.471
- BVPS
- 9.010
- Gross Margin
- 22.1%
- Net Margin
- 29.6%
- D/E
- 0.04
- Current Ratio
- 7.90
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.39
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.4M
- Charter Capital
- 34.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng cá nhân
- Sub-industry
- Hàng May mặc
- Company Type
- CT