Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.987
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −25.602nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 16.9%88th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show elevated indicators of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.2681 (84th percentile vs VN peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.24, and earnings-quality 24.7/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100). At the same time, the company has no accumulated statutory losses and a neutral Piotroski F-Score of 5/9; liquidity/distress measures are weak (Altman Z-Score 1.09 in the distress zone).
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2681 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); this score ranks at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +0.24 year-over-year (the movement is a secondary cue).
- DSRI = 1.1998 (days sales receivables index; >1 can indicate rising receivables relative to sales), contributing to the M-Score.
- GMI = 1.2017 (gross margin index; >1 signals deteriorating gross margins year-over-year).
- TATA = 0.1701 (total accruals to total assets; positive and relatively large accruals imply earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
- Earnings-Quality Score = 24.7/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 20.0/100 (measures show profits are not converting to cash and receivables are a weakness).
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2025) = -25.60 (2nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low value means reported profit is not turning into operating cash).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.9% of total assets (88th percentile; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is unusually large).
- Altman Z-Score = 1.09 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this value sits in the distress zone).
- Director-deal registrations in 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30: 11 sale registrations and 15 purchase registrations (these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades; 1 trader for sales and 1 trader for purchases, and many registrations listed without a volume).
- AQI = 0.6333 (asset quality index; <1 can indicate lower write-offs relative to assets year-over-year).
- SGAI = 0.7747 (sales, general & admin index; <1 suggests selling/administrative expenses did not grow faster than sales).
- DEPI = 1.0000 and LVGI = 1.0094 (depreciation and leverage indices roughly stable year-over-year).
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures fundamental strength; a middling score indicating neither clear operational deterioration nor strong improvement).
- No accumulated losses (undistributed earnings are positive) and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (the statutory reported equity position is positive).
The share register is highly concentrated: state-owned Tổng Công ty Xây Dựng Trường Sơn holds 68.5%, with a single notable individual shareholder at 9.8% (Cao Thị Thu Thủy). This indicates dominant institutional/group control with limited free float; director-deal registrations show multiple registered intentions but are not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) for 'Receivables and prepayments' to the line items making up the 16.9% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle (break down: prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to reported profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the notes to quantify the components causing Cash conversion = -25.60 (check large non-cash adjustments and working-capital movements across the three-year schedule).
- Inspect the audit report and the management discussion & analysis for explanations of the DSRI = 1.1998 and TATA = 0.1701 (look for revenue recognition policies, changes in allowance for doubtful accounts, and significant accruals).
- Review the register/schedule of related-party balances and transactions (note on related parties) to see whether the sizeable receivables outside the trade cycle include related-party prepayments, loans or long-term receivables.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.47
- P/S
- 0.08
- ROE
- 0.8%
- ROA
- 0.1%
- EPS
- 85
- BVPS
- 10.482
- Gross Margin
- 7.4%
- Net Margin
- 0.1%
- D/E
- 2.55
- Current Ratio
- 1.14
- EV/EBITDA
- 14.32
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 3.9M
- Charter Capital
- 38.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT