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TS3

Công ty Cổ phần Trường Sơn 532

VietnamConstructionXây dựng và Vật liệuUPCOMCT
4.900
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+22.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
4.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.987

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Very Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction
Classified as construction because ICB sector “Xây dựng và Vật liệu” maps to the construction group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.

Technical details
Why this model

Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.

How it works

Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→7.88B
Fair EV/EBITDA→9.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+22.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
5.987
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA7.9 tỷyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·245226236232251229181180168172198183
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4870.714205305844
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4150000000030
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1147572681061188681896510496
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·4327272317228857156
Net Inventories
·12212715315612890896771968379
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·12212715315612890896771968379
Other current assets
·0.615622123335
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000002
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·111638445340466471541715
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00142225131128193100
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.20110.3000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·91217222725272726141614
Tangible fixed assets
·91217222725272726141614
Other non-current assets
·3470.310.30.40.70.60.30.50.5
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·3470.310.30.40.70.60.30.50.5
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·256242274275304269227244239226215198
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·216202234236264229185204207195184169
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2162018510912111285133165176181108
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1037549619967415784826452
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·54660.31000.030.90.09326290.1
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0114912714311799724219361
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0131830.091.00.921232
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·404040404040424031313129
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·404040404040423931303029
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·393939393939393929292929
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.50.40.40.40.40.4002220.6
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·110.90.91141.00000
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000.090.20.40.50.60
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·256242274275304269227244239226215198
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·393939393939393929292929

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
25
Poor
Accrual Quality
41
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
20
Margin Stability
45

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.27 · 84th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.24
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.200
GMI
1.202
AQI
0.633
SGI
1.267
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.775
TATA
0.170
LVGI
1.009

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−25.602nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
16.9%88th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals show elevated indicators of aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -1.2681 (84th percentile vs VN peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.24, and earnings-quality 24.7/100 driven by very poor cash conversion (0.0/100). At the same time, the company has no accumulated statutory losses and a neutral Piotroski F-Score of 5/9; liquidity/distress measures are weak (Altman Z-Score 1.09 in the distress zone).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.2681 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); this score ranks at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and rose by +0.24 year-over-year (the movement is a secondary cue).
  • DSRI = 1.1998 (days sales receivables index; >1 can indicate rising receivables relative to sales), contributing to the M-Score.
  • GMI = 1.2017 (gross margin index; >1 signals deteriorating gross margins year-over-year).
  • TATA = 0.1701 (total accruals to total assets; positive and relatively large accruals imply earnings are supported by accruals rather than cash).
  • Earnings-Quality Score = 24.7/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 20.0/100 (measures show profits are not converting to cash and receivables are a weakness).
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, FY2025) = -25.60 (2nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials; low value means reported profit is not turning into operating cash).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 16.9% of total assets (88th percentile; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is unusually large).
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.09 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this value sits in the distress zone).
  • Director-deal registrations in 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30: 11 sale registrations and 15 purchase registrations (these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades; 1 trader for sales and 1 trader for purchases, and many registrations listed without a volume).
Positive Signals
  • AQI = 0.6333 (asset quality index; <1 can indicate lower write-offs relative to assets year-over-year).
  • SGAI = 0.7747 (sales, general & admin index; <1 suggests selling/administrative expenses did not grow faster than sales).
  • DEPI = 1.0000 and LVGI = 1.0094 (depreciation and leverage indices roughly stable year-over-year).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures fundamental strength; a middling score indicating neither clear operational deterioration nor strong improvement).
  • No accumulated losses (undistributed earnings are positive) and parent net loss = 0 consecutive years up to FY2025 (the statutory reported equity position is positive).
Ownership Risk

The share register is highly concentrated: state-owned Tổng Công ty Xây Dựng Trường Sơn holds 68.5%, with a single notable individual shareholder at 9.8% (Cao Thị Thu Thủy). This indicates dominant institutional/group control with limited free float; director-deal registrations show multiple registered intentions but are not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) for 'Receivables and prepayments' to the line items making up the 16.9% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle (break down: prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile operating cash flow to reported profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the notes to quantify the components causing Cash conversion = -25.60 (check large non-cash adjustments and working-capital movements across the three-year schedule).
  • Inspect the audit report and the management discussion & analysis for explanations of the DSRI = 1.1998 and TATA = 0.1701 (look for revenue recognition policies, changes in allowance for doubtful accounts, and significant accruals).
  • Review the register/schedule of related-party balances and transactions (note on related parties) to see whether the sizeable receivables outside the trade cycle include related-party prepayments, loans or long-term receivables.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.09
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.33
Negative
Composite
35
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.27×Interest Burden5.71×Op. Margin0.00×Turnover0.88×Leverage6.34=ROE0.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−8.6%
Volatility
69.6%
Max Drawdown
−31.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
57.98P/E
P/B
0.47
P/S
0.08
ROE
0.8%
ROA
0.1%
EPS
85
BVPS
10.482
Gross Margin
7.4%
Net Margin
0.1%
D/E
2.55
Current Ratio
1.14
EV/EBITDA
14.32
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
3.9M
Charter Capital
38.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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