Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 10.852
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.5017th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.8%66th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.2782, which is above the US-based -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 84th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +0.86 year-over-year; the M-Score components driving this are a high DSRI (1.5333) and AQI (1.4786) with a low TATA (0.1104). The Altman Z-Score is 1.59 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral); operating cash conversion over three years is -0.50 (16th percentile), and statutory loss tests are not met in the published statements.
- Beneish M-Score = -1.2782: the M-Score is a composite that measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation signals; although the US cutoff is -1.78, this company ranks at the 84th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting versus VN peers) and the M-Score increased by +0.86 year-over-year, indicating a material change in the accounting signals.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.5333: DSRI > 1 indicates receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) growing faster than sales; a DSRI of 1.5333 is a specific contributor to the elevated M-Score.
- Asset Quality Index (AQI) = 1.4786: AQI > 1 suggests increasing proportion of non-current/expensive-to-replace assets or cost capitalization; AQI of 1.4786 is a substantial contributor to the M-Score.
- Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) = 0.1104: relatively low TATA means lower accruals-based distortion in that specific measure, but the small TATA contrasted with weak cash conversion (below) flags a disconnect between reported profit composition and cash.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.59 (distress zone): the Z-Score uses balance-sheet and profit metrics to estimate distance to bankruptcy; 1.59 lies in the distress zone (lower distance).
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = -0.50 (16th percentile): this indicates profits have not been converted into cash over the three-year window; the percentile shows it is weak relative to Vietnamese non-financial peers.
- Earnings-Quality components: overall Earnings Quality Score = 20.9/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100: these low sub-scores highlight specific deficiencies in cash- and receivables-related earnings quality.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.8% of total assets (66th percentile): while not extreme, 4.8% of assets classified outside the trade-cycle (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) contributes to concerns about revenue/receivable quality and aligns with the high DSRI and AQI.
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9: a neutral score indicating neither strong deterioration nor strong improvement in the accounting fundamentals used by the Piotroski model.
- Gross Margin Index (GMI) = 0.9889 and Sales Growth Index (SGI) = 0.9934: GMI slightly below 1 suggests gross margins have not deteriorated relative to prior year, and SGI close to 1 indicates sales are roughly stable year-over-year—these temper concerns from other signals.
- Depreciation Index (DEPI) = 0.6501 and SGA Index (SGAI) = 0.8725: DEPI well below 1 and SGAI below 1 suggest depreciation rates and selling/administrative expense trends are not inflating profit via reduced depreciation or exploding SG&A, which are mitigating signals against manipulation via those channels.
- No accumulated losses / retained earnings not negative and parent's net loss years = 0: accumulated losses are not present and the parent has not reported net loss in any of the 0 years up to FY2025, which is a positive solvency/fiscal continuity fact in the statements.
- Statutory loss tests: none met under the Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e) (amended): the audited annual statements do not meet the statutory loss conditions that would trigger mandatory listing review under that rule.
DNP Holding (Công ty Cổ phần DNP Holding) controls 52.7% of the company (disclosed 2026-06-30), giving a single listed parent majority control; other top holders are individual shareholders with 5.0%, 3.9%, 3.7% and 3.6%. Director-deal registrations in the 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 window show 2 sale registrations (both without a disclosed volume) and 1 purchase registration for 10,202,566 shares — these are exchange-registered intentions, not executed trades.
- Compare the year-over-year change in trade receivables and the components of receivables with Note X (Receivables and prepayments) in the FY2025 audited financial statements to see what is included in the 4.8% of assets classified as 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Reconcile operating cash flows to profit in the Consolidated Cash Flow Statement and Management Discussion to confirm the drivers of the three-year operating cash conversion ratio = -0.50 (operating cash flow / net profit).
- Review the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and the relevant accounting policy note to understand what feeds the Asset Quality Index = 1.4786 and the Depreciation Index (DEPI) = 0.6501.
- Inspect the Related-Party Transactions note and the loans/advances schedules for any material prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables that would explain both DSRI = 1.5333 and the 4.8% receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Check the auditor’s report and the statutory loss test disclosures in the annual report to confirm the published statement that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss conditions are met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.66
- P/S
- 0.20
- ROE
- 30.2%
- ROA
- 8.2%
- EPS
- 3.652
- BVPS
- 15.326
- Gross Margin
- 16.5%
- Net Margin
- 7.3%
- D/E
- 1.88
- Current Ratio
- 1.25
- Rev Growth
- −0.1%
- Profit Growth
- +453.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.99
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 62.9M
- Charter Capital
- 629B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hàng công nghiệp
- Sub-industry
- Containers & Đóng gói
- Company Type
- CT