Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 900
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 1.105
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Jun 2025
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 2.1%50th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.36×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.3641 (82nd percentile versus Vietnamese peers), with a year-over-year change of -4.88 indicating accounting metrics moved materially this year; several Beneish components are large (GMI 2.5458, SGI 3.2919, LVGI 3.5463) while DSRI (0.0152), DEPI (0.0000) and TATA (0.0015) are near zero. Earnings-quality is mixed: overall score 44.8/100 with very high accruals and receivables quality (99.4 and 100.0) but extremely weak cash-conversion, margin and revenue quality (all 0.0). The Altman Z-Score is very high at 91.37 (safe-zone distance from bankruptcy) while the Piotroski F-Score is low at 2/9 (weak fundamentals).
- Beneish M-Score -1.3641 is above the US -1.78 cutoff but the Vietnamese context matters; the company sits at the 82nd percentile among VN peers (higher = more aggressive accounting vs VN peers) and the M-Score moved by -4.88 year-over-year (the YoY trajectory is a secondary cue).
- Gross margin index (GMI) = 2.5458 and SGI = 3.2919: GMI >1 implies gross margin deterioration versus prior year; SGI >>1 indicates rapid sales growth (3.29x) which can strain controls and create incentives for aggressive recognition.
- Leverage/volume growth index (LVGI) = 3.5463: unusually large change in leverage or shares outstanding relative to peers, which can affect the M-Score interpretation.
- Earnings-quality components: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these zero scores point to very weak operating cash conversion and deteriorating margins and revenue persistence measures in the applied metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 2/9: weak fundamentals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency measures used by Piotroski.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.1% of total assets (50th percentile): presence of prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables is non-negligible and should be checked in schedules.
- Accumulated losses = 0.36x paid-in capital and the company reported a net loss (parent profit) in 1 consecutive year up to FY2025: retained losses relative to capital are material to note even though owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) remains positive.
- Accruals quality = 99.4/100 and Receivables quality = 100.0/100: the applied metrics show high-quality accrual accounting and receivables classification under the scoring method used.
- DSRI = 0.0152 and TATA = 0.0015 (both near zero): days-sales-in-receivables index and total accruals change as used in the Beneish model are very low, which in isolation suggests no large unexplained increases in receivables or total accruals by those measures.
- DEPI = 0.0000: the depreciation index showed no change under the Beneish component calculation, reducing one common manipulation signal.
- Altman Z-Score = 91.37 (safe zone): the company is measured as a large distance from bankruptcy risk by the Altman metric.
Top ownership is concentrated in individuals: Trần Hồng Tài holds 25.0%, followed by other individuals at 4.3%, 4.1%, 3.0% and 2.8%. No institutional or state majority is listed in the top five; this concentration in one individual (25%) is a governance characteristic to note in interpreting related-party transactions and group influence.
- Compare the FY2025 note or schedule for 'Prepayments to suppliers' and 'Loans receivable' with the line items aggregated as 'Receivables outside the trade cycle' (2.1% of total assets) to see composition and related parties.
- Reconcile accumulated losses disclosed in the equity notes to the paid-in capital to confirm the 0.36x figure and review the retained earnings / accumulated loss rollforward.
- Inspect the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm operating cash conversion drivers that produce Cash conversion = 0.0/100 (look at cash-from-operations versus reported profit and changes in working capital).
- Review revenue recognition and segment or sales-detail notes to understand the inputs behind Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100, especially any large one-off sales or adjustments in FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.14
- P/S
- 322.02
- ROE
- −0.1%
- ROA
- −0.1%
- EPS
- −8
- BVPS
- 6.402
- Gross Margin
- 3.4%
- Net Margin
- −279.6%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 3.32
- Rev Growth
- +229.2%
- Profit Growth
- −198.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 25.4M
- Charter Capital
- 254B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bán lẻ
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bán lẻ
- Sub-industry
- Bán lẻ phức hợp
- Company Type
- CT