Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.980
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 3.813
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 51.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Cyclicals peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 6.5593rd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.1%11th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company’s Beneish M-Score is -1.1044 (Vietnam peer percentile 87th) with a year-over-year increase of +1.55, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that moved materially this year. Specific Beneish components driving this are a high DSRI (2.1076) and elevated SGI (1.0679) while accrual-related metrics such as TATA (0.0772) and AQI (0.7012) are less extreme. Complementary indicators show weak cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit three-year = 6.55, 93rd percentile) and an Earnings-Quality Score of 20.7/100, but no accumulated losses and neutral fundamentals (Piotroski F-Score 6/9); the Altman Z-Score is 2.16 (grey zone).
- Beneish M-Score -1.1044 with Vietnam peer percentile 87th: the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation based on eight financial ratios; this score is well above most Vietnamese peers (higher percentile = more aggressive accounting), and the YoY change of +1.55 indicates a notable shift in the company’s Beneish profile year-over-year.
- DSRI = 2.1076: the Days’ Sales Receivable Index measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales; a value above 1 suggests receivables are increasing relative to sales, and 2.1076 is materially elevated.
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 6.55 (93rd percentile): this ratio measures how well reported profit converts to cash; a very low conversion (high ratio here in the dataset context) indicates profits are not producing operating cash and is a concern for earnings quality.
- Earnings-Quality Score = 20.7/100 with component scores of 0.0/100 for cash conversion, receivables quality, margin quality and revenue quality: these measures quantify weaknesses in the cash and revenue pictures underpinning reported earnings.
- Earnings-quality components: receivables quality = 0.0/100 and revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these specific scores flag weak evidence that reported revenue and receivables are high quality.
- Beneish LVGI = 0.7982 and DEPI = 0.7945: the LVGI (sales growth combined with leverage changes) and DEPI (depreciation index) below 1 can signal changes in asset valuation or depreciation policies that affect earnings comparability.
- No accumulated losses and parent net loss years = 0: retained earnings are positive and the parent company reported no net loss years up to FY2025, which is a basic solvency/continuity signal in the financial statements.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (11th percentile): this measures prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade terms; at 0.1% of assets the exposure is small relative to peers.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: this score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 6 is mildly positive/neutral, suggesting mixed but not weak operating fundamentals.
- AQI = 0.7012 and TATA = 0.0772: AQI (accrual quality index) below 1 and a relatively small total accruals to assets (TATA = 0.0772) indicate accruals are not extreme in scale compared with total assets.
Ownership appears relatively dispersed among individuals: top five shareholders are all individuals with stakes of 5.8%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Director-deal registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30 show 2 sale registrations and 1 purchase registration (registrations are intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades).
- Compare Note(s) on accounts receivable and revenue recognition in the FY2025 annual report to reconcile the DSRI (2.1076) — verify whether receivables growth exceeds sales growth and whether any changes in credit terms or allowances are disclosed.
- Reconcile the cash flow statement to profit: quantify the three-year operating cash flow / net profit series that produced the cash conversion measure 6.55 and check the notes for non-cash items, related-party cash flows, and timing differences.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note to confirm the inputs behind DEPI = 0.7945 (depreciation index) and any changes in useful lives, additions or disposals that would affect depreciation policy.
- Review the related-party schedules and the notes on prepayments/loans to verify the composition behind 'receivables outside the trade cycle' (0.1% of total assets) and to identify any material intercompany balances or terms.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.39
- P/S
- 0.20
- ROE
- 8.4%
- ROA
- 4.7%
- EPS
- 833
- BVPS
- 10.303
- Gross Margin
- −0.2%
- Net Margin
- 4.1%
- D/E
- 0.34
- Current Ratio
- 2.14
- Rev Growth
- +6.8%
- Profit Growth
- +275.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 52.5M
- Charter Capital
- 525B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT