TNA
Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại Xuất nhập khẩu Thiên Nam
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 3.770
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.362
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 13 Oct 2024
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%14th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.15×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 3Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals of aggressive revenue/receivable dynamics: a Beneish M-Score of -0.3686 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.86, driven chiefly by a very high DSRI (4.9431) and elevated SGAI (2.2212). Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: accruals quality scores 100/100 but cash conversion scores 22.7/100, receivables quality 0/100 and margin quality 0/100; the Altman Z-Score is 0.10 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral). The audited statements show net losses for three consecutive years and receivables outside the trade cycle are 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.3686 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to an 1980s US threshold; company ranks at the 92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers, indicating more aggressive accounting than most peers)
- M-Score year-over-year change = +0.86 (measures the shift in the manipulation signal versus prior year; a large positive change is a secondary cue that accounting behavior moved)
- DSRI = 4.9431 (days-sales-in-receivables index; very high value indicates receivables grew much faster than sales or revenue recognition may have accelerated)
- SGAI = 2.2212 (sales, general & admin index; >1 indicates SG&A grew faster than sales, which can signal cost capitalization or selling-pressure on margins)
- DEPI = 1.1766 and LVGI = 1.0519 (depreciation index >1 and leverage-growth index >1; DEPI suggests slower depreciation or useful-life changes, LVGI indicates rising leverage/long-term liabilities)
- TATA = -0.0377 (total accruals to total assets; negative but small — accruals measure short-term earnings management and here accruals are not strongly positive)
- Earnings-quality: Cash conversion 22.7/100 and Receivables quality 0/100 (measures of how well cash generation and receivables support reported profits; both are poor here)
- Margin quality = 0/100 (reported margins are not supported by stable or cash-backed performance)
- Altman Z-Score = 0.10 (measures financial distress/bankruptcy distance; 0.10 is in the distress zone)
- Three consecutive years of net loss in the audited statements through FY2025 (a statutory test result reported in the filings; the company trades on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX cancellation rule does not apply)
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (14th percentile among VN non-financials; these are prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables that sit outside normal trade receivables)
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures how much reported income relies on accruals; here accruals appear not to be the primary driver of reported earnings)
- Revenue quality = 76.0/100 (indicates a relatively high proportion of revenue is supported by cash/recurring sources versus being one-off or easily reversible)
- Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures conservative/healthy fundamentals; a middle score indicates neutral operating/fundamental signals rather than clear deterioration)
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and accumulated losses are 0.15x paid-in capital (shows the company retains positive equity despite three years of parent losses)
Ownership is concentrated in a small group of individual shareholders: three individuals together hold 41.2% (Nguyễn Quang Hòa 17.3%, Nguyễn Trần Thảo Nguyên 15.9%, Nguyễn Trần Thảo Hương 8.0%), with two other individuals holding smaller stakes. No state-owned or institutional block is listed in the top shareholders provided.
- Compare the receivables outside the trade cycle (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, other long-term receivables) reported in the balance-sheet note to the ageing schedule and related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile cash flow from operations to reported profit in the cash-flow note and the statement of profit or loss to verify the low cash-conversion score (check components of working-capital movements and one-off items).
- Inspect the depreciation policy note and fixed-asset reconciliation to confirm the basis for DEPI = 1.1766 (changes to useful lives, residual values, or capitalization policies).
- Check the related-party transactions and receivable/payable schedules for balances and terms that could explain the high DSRI (4.9431) and loans/receivables outside the normal trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.42
- P/S
- 0.57
- ROE
- −13.5%
- ROA
- −3.0%
- EPS
- −1.302
- BVPS
- 9.062
- Gross Margin
- 12.4%
- Net Margin
- −19.7%
- D/E
- 1.10
- Current Ratio
- 1.04
- Rev Growth
- −73.7%
- Profit Growth
- −4.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 35.45
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 49.2M
- Charter Capital
- 492B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT