Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 22.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 21.077
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −1.7011th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 40.4%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of -0.3906 (91st percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.60, and individual M-Score drivers such as DSRI 1.5703 and LVGI 4.73. Earnings-quality screens are very weak (Earnings Quality 0/100 across accruals, cash conversion, receivables and margin), operating cash conversion over three years is -1.70 (10th percentile), and receivables outside the trade cycle are 40.4% of total assets (98th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.3906 (measures the probability of earnings manipulation using eight financial ratios); this score is in the 91st percentile versus Vietnamese peers, indicating accounting metrics more aggressive than most local companies. The year-over-year M-Score change is +1.60, showing a material move in the score year-to-year (note the -1.78 US cutoff is not directly transferible to Vietnam).
- DSRI = 1.5703 (Days' Sales Receivables Index; measures growth in receivables relative to sales). A DSRI >1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales.
- LVGI = 4.7300 (Leverage Growth Index; measures growth in leverage). A large LVGI indicates rapid increase in leverage or leverage-like balance-sheet items.
- AQI = 1.1429 (Asset Quality Index; measures shifts into long‑lived or cost‑less‑to‑expense assets). AQI >1 signals a higher share of non-current or other assets that can obscure earnings quality.
- SGI = 1.5218 (Sales Growth Index; measures sales growth). SGI >1 shows strong sales growth which can make manipulation incentives higher under Beneish framework.
- TATA = 0.4510 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accrual intensity). A positive TATA of 0.4510 indicates sizeable accruals relative to assets.
- Earnings Quality Score = 0/100 and all component scores 0/100 (measures combined signals of accruals, cash conversion, receivables and margin quality). This uniform zero indicates very weak signals on multiple earnings-quality tests.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -1.70 (10th percentile). This shows reported profits are not turning into operating cash over a three-year window.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 40.4% of total assets (98th percentile). A very large share of assets is in prepayments, loans receivable or long-term receivables rather than trade receivables tied to sales.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.01 (classified in the 'grey zone' for bankruptcy distance). This indicates limited cushion on traditional distress metrics.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 (measures fundamentals: profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency). A score of 3 indicates weak fundamental signals.
- DEPI = 0.9166 (Depreciation Index; measures change in depreciation policy). DEPI <1 suggests no obvious reduction in depreciation rates relative to prior period (not a sign of earnings inflation via lower depreciation).
- SGAI = 0.7038 (Sales, General & Admin Index; measures change in SG&A relative to sales). SGAI <1 indicates SG&A grew less than sales, which can reflect operating leverage rather than discretionary expense capitalization.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (ex-minority) positive (the published statements show undistributed earnings are not negative and equity excluding minority interest is positive).
- Statutory loss tests: the company is listed on UPCoM where the HOSE/HNX statutory delisting test (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) does not apply; the filing therefore does not trigger that specific exchange delisting criterion.
Ownership is highly concentrated: Công ty TNHH Thanh Bình holds 53.2% and Tổng Công Ty Công Nghiệp Thực Phẩm Đồng Nai holds 33.1%, together controlling 86.3% of shares; Quỹ Đầu Tư Phát Triển Đồng Nai holds 6.5%. Major shareholders are institutions and a clear dominant shareholder exists, while individual free-float appears very small (largest individuals 0.5% and 0.3%).
- Compare the line(s) in the 2025 balance sheet and notes that detail 'receivables and other long-term receivables' to reconcile the 40.4% of total assets figure and identify composition (prepayments to suppliers, loans to related parties, long-term receivables).
- Reconcile operating cash flow to parent net profit in the 2023–2025 cash flow statements and the notes to quantify the drivers of the three‑year cash conversion of -1.70 (identify non-cash items, working-capital movements and related-party cash flows).
- Inspect the notes on related-party transactions and prepayments in FY2025 to see whether significant balances are with group entities, suppliers, or other counterparties and to check contractual terms and maturities.
- Review the auditor's report and any emphasis-of-matter or key-audit-matters in the FY2025 audited financial statements for commentary on asset valuation, recoverability of receivables/prepayments, going-concern or unusual related-party arrangements.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.83
- P/S
- 0.57
- ROE
- 2.7%
- ROA
- 1.8%
- EPS
- 716
- BVPS
- 26.599
- Gross Margin
- 14.2%
- Net Margin
- 1.9%
- D/E
- 0.65
- Current Ratio
- 1.64
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.37
- Div Yield
- 4.5%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.7M
- Charter Capital
- 46.6B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
- Sub-industry
- Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
- Company Type
- CT