TGP
Công ty Cổ phần Trường Phú
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.031
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 7.8895th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%3rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's forensic indicators show a very high Beneish M-Score of 5.945 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +9.83), paired with extremely low earnings-quality metrics (overall 4.8/100) and weak operational and profitability signals (Piotroski F-Score 2/9). Balance-sheet/solvency metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.04 places the company in the bankruptcy 'grey zone', while statutory-loss triggers do not apply to its UPCoM listing.
- Beneish M-Score 5.945 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY +9.83): the M-Score is far above the US -1.78 threshold and sits at the top percentile among VN peers, indicating aggressive accounting signal strength and a notable year-over-year deterioration (the +9.83 change marks when accounting measures began to move).
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) 8.9674: this very high DSRI suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) have grown much faster than sales, a common Beneish component associated with revenue/receivables recognition risk.
- Earnings Quality overall 4.8/100 with component failures: Accruals quality 14.5/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100 — these indicate that reported profits have shown very poor conversion into cash, poor receivable characteristics, and weak margin consistency.
- Three-year cash conversion ratio 7.88 (95th percentile among VN non-financials): operating cash flow over net profit is very low, meaning profits are not translating into operating cash at a rate typical for peers.
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9: weak fundamental score suggesting poor recent profitability, liquidity/solvency and operational improvements.
- SGAI 1.4842 and LVGI 1.4876 (both >1): selling/general admin expenses and leverage growth are elevated relative to prior periods, consistent with expense or leverage-based earnings pressure.
- AQI 1.3721 and TATA 0.2916: the Asset Quality Index >1 signals rising non-current or 'other' assets relative to total assets; TATA (total accruals/total assets) of 0.2916 is non-trivial and aligns with poor accruals-quality score.
- SGI 0.7292 (Sales Growth Index <1): reported sales have not accelerated rapidly, which can reduce some types of revenue-recognition complexity tied to high growth.
- DEPI 0.9960 (Depreciation Index ≈1): depreciation policies have been relatively stable year-over-year, suggesting no obvious abrupt changes in depreciation that might be used to manipulate profit via useful-life adjustments.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle 0.0% of total assets (3rd percentile among VN peers): there is no material amount reported as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable or other long-term receivables outside the normal trade cycle in the FY2025 filings, reducing one specific channel for off-cycle asset placement.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count is 0 years through FY2025: the company is not showing statutory accumulated loss indicators in its published statements.
Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Lê Thanh Sơn 24.3% and Lê Xuân Hằng 14.0% are the largest shareholders, with four other named individuals holding material stakes (5.9%, 4.9%, 4.6%). Concentrated, individual ownership can correlate with governance effectiveness issues or related-party transactions; there is no state or listed-group ownership flagged in the supplied data.
- Compare the change in receivables and revenue in the notes to the financial statements (disclose the components that drive DSRI 8.9674) to see whether growth in receivables or unusual timing explains the high DSRI.
- Locate the breakdown of 'other long-term receivables', prepayments and loans to related parties in the notes and confirm the 0.0% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow vs profit in the cash-flow note (three-year series) to verify the components producing the cash-conversion ratio of 7.88 and identify any large non-cash items or working-capital movements.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policy note to confirm the DEPI 0.9960 (stability of depreciation) and the Asset Quality Index (AQI 1.3721) drivers (classification, revaluations, or additions).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.37
- P/S
- 0.25
- ROE
- 1.8%
- ROA
- 1.2%
- EPS
- 217
- BVPS
- 12.033
- Gross Margin
- 8.7%
- Net Margin
- 1.3%
- D/E
- 0.55
- Current Ratio
- 2.06
- EV/EBITDA
- 10.02
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 13.1M
- Charter Capital
- 131B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
- Sub-industry
- Hàng điện & điện tử
- Company Type
- CT