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TGP

Công ty Cổ phần Trường Phú

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpĐiện tử & Thiết bị điệnUPCOMCT
4.300
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+40.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
4.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.031

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện tử & Thiết bị điện→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Điện tử & Thiết bị điện” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→25.21B
Fair EV/EBITDA→10.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+40.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
6.031
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA25.2 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2061532423523623213241,1011,6441,3891,5111,303583··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·132419431131103276574292··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·01600170466941,3761,0761,311885276··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·48786736381292798156869965··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.0210.20.7120.10.10.50910.70.7··
Net Inventories
·14110413822925519822531976143107254137··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·14110413822925519822531976143107254137··
Other current assets
·410715111428171022314··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000056··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·535759697667527291100636667··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000010.070.07000··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000000.070.07000··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·51565964695248688982596465··
Tangible fixed assets
·48525560654743648578555960··
Intagible fixed assets
·3334556444555··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.20.2··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.20.2··
Other non-current assets
·320.55322323322··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·320.55322323322··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2592103024214383893761,1731,7351,4891,5741,369650··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·102551612823082622501,0461,6061,3641,4681,263545··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·100521572763012542501,0461,6061,3641,4681,263545··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·8638114257241245239583896825876815188··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.200.041221220.30.10.20.410··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2346780000000··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2346780000000··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·158155141139130127126127129125106107106··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·158155141139130127126127129125106107106··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·131117117100100100100100100100100100100··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·1717171717171715115533··
Other Reserves
·4444444320000··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·61731896591620120.8··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2592103024214383893761,1731,7351,4891,5741,369650··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·131117117100100100100100100100100100100··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
5
Poor
Accrual Quality
15
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 5.95 · 99th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +9.83
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
8.967
GMI
1.123
AQI
1.372
SGI
0.729
DEPI
0.996
SGAI
1.484
TATA
0.292
LVGI
1.488

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
7.8895th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.0%3rd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's forensic indicators show a very high Beneish M-Score of 5.945 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +9.83), paired with extremely low earnings-quality metrics (overall 4.8/100) and weak operational and profitability signals (Piotroski F-Score 2/9). Balance-sheet/solvency metrics are mixed: Altman Z-Score 2.04 places the company in the bankruptcy 'grey zone', while statutory-loss triggers do not apply to its UPCoM listing.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 5.945 (99th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY +9.83): the M-Score is far above the US -1.78 threshold and sits at the top percentile among VN peers, indicating aggressive accounting signal strength and a notable year-over-year deterioration (the +9.83 change marks when accounting measures began to move).
  • DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) 8.9674: this very high DSRI suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) have grown much faster than sales, a common Beneish component associated with revenue/receivables recognition risk.
  • Earnings Quality overall 4.8/100 with component failures: Accruals quality 14.5/100, Cash conversion 0.0/100, Receivables quality 0.0/100, Margin quality 0.0/100 — these indicate that reported profits have shown very poor conversion into cash, poor receivable characteristics, and weak margin consistency.
  • Three-year cash conversion ratio 7.88 (95th percentile among VN non-financials): operating cash flow over net profit is very low, meaning profits are not translating into operating cash at a rate typical for peers.
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9: weak fundamental score suggesting poor recent profitability, liquidity/solvency and operational improvements.
  • SGAI 1.4842 and LVGI 1.4876 (both >1): selling/general admin expenses and leverage growth are elevated relative to prior periods, consistent with expense or leverage-based earnings pressure.
  • AQI 1.3721 and TATA 0.2916: the Asset Quality Index >1 signals rising non-current or 'other' assets relative to total assets; TATA (total accruals/total assets) of 0.2916 is non-trivial and aligns with poor accruals-quality score.
Positive Signals
  • SGI 0.7292 (Sales Growth Index <1): reported sales have not accelerated rapidly, which can reduce some types of revenue-recognition complexity tied to high growth.
  • DEPI 0.9960 (Depreciation Index ≈1): depreciation policies have been relatively stable year-over-year, suggesting no obvious abrupt changes in depreciation that might be used to manipulate profit via useful-life adjustments.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle 0.0% of total assets (3rd percentile among VN peers): there is no material amount reported as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable or other long-term receivables outside the normal trade cycle in the FY2025 filings, reducing one specific channel for off-cycle asset placement.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and parent net loss count is 0 years through FY2025: the company is not showing statutory accumulated loss indicators in its published statements.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated among individuals: Lê Thanh Sơn 24.3% and Lê Xuân Hằng 14.0% are the largest shareholders, with four other named individuals holding material stakes (5.9%, 4.9%, 4.6%). Concentrated, individual ownership can correlate with governance effectiveness issues or related-party transactions; there is no state or listed-group ownership flagged in the supplied data.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the change in receivables and revenue in the notes to the financial statements (disclose the components that drive DSRI 8.9674) to see whether growth in receivables or unusual timing explains the high DSRI.
  • Locate the breakdown of 'other long-term receivables', prepayments and loans to related parties in the notes and confirm the 0.0% of total assets figure for receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile operating cash flow vs profit in the cash-flow note (three-year series) to verify the components producing the cash-conversion ratio of 7.88 and identify any large non-cash items or working-capital movements.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and intangible-asset schedules and depreciation policy note to confirm the DEPI 0.9960 (stability of depreciation) and the Asset Quality Index (AQI 1.3721) drivers (classification, revaluations, or additions).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.04
Grey Zone
Sharpe
−0.22
Negative
Composite
41
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.02×Turnover0.87×Leverage1.64=ROE1.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.9%
Volatility
150.2%
Max Drawdown
−43.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
20.23P/E
P/B
0.37
P/S
0.25
ROE
1.8%
ROA
1.2%
EPS
217
BVPS
12.033
Gross Margin
8.7%
Net Margin
1.3%
D/E
0.55
Current Ratio
2.06
EV/EBITDA
10.02
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
13.1M
Charter Capital
131B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Hàng điện & điện tử
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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