Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 50.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 50.307
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 8 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.0122nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 4.9%67th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The Beneish M-Score is -1.4037, which is above the US -1.78 cutoff but sits at the 81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rose by +1.16 year-over-year, indicating relatively more aggressive accounting metrics among Vietnamese companies and a recent upward trajectory. Earnings-quality component scores are weak in cash conversion, receivables and revenue (each 0.0/100) while accruals quality is moderate (61.6/100); the Altman Z-Score is 35.50 (well inside the safe zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- M-Score -1.4037 (Beneish): above the historical US threshold of -1.78 but note Vietnamese context — company ranks at the 81st percentile among Vietnamese peers and the M-Score increased by +1.16 year-over-year (an uplift in the manipulation signal relative to peers and a non-trivial YoY move).
- DSRI (days-sales-related index) = 1.9492: this component of the M-Score measures relative growth in receivables/sales and suggests receivables (or revenue recognition relative to sales) expanded materially year-over-year.
- Cash-conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.01, 22nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials: reported profits are not converting into cash over a multi-year window (very low cash conversion).
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these three zeros indicate very weak observable quality on those axes in the scoring method used.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0960: positive accruals relative to assets which, together with low cash conversion, can indicate earnings driven by accruals rather than cash.
- LVGI (leveraging index) = 0.8374 and SGAI = 0.9190: sales growth and SG&A patterns are not strongly supportive of organic quality growth (SGAI <1 but DSRI and other signals point to revenue/receivable tension).
- Altman Z-Score = 35.50: measures bankruptcy distance; this is in the safe zone indicating low bankruptcy risk on the standard Altman metric.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9: measures fundamentals (profitability, liquidity, leverage, operating efficiency); a 6 is a neutral-to-positive score indicating several healthy fundamental signals.
- Accruals quality = 61.6/100: relative strength on accruals quality compared with other sub-scores, suggesting accruals are not uniformly poor.
- DEPI = 1.0000 and SGI = 0.9960: depreciation and sales-growth indices show stability (DEPI = 1.0 means no change in depreciation policy effect; SGI near 1 shows flat sales growth), reducing some concerns that aggressive depreciation or high growth are driving results.
The share register is highly concentrated: F1 Housing (institution) holds 84.2% while four individuals together hold the remaining ~15.8% (largest individual 5.2%). This indicates dominant institutional control with limited free float and potential for group or controller influence over accounting and disclosures.
- Compare FY2025 trade receivables, loans and other receivables lines with the related-party and long-term receivables notes to reconcile the 4.9% of total assets figure described as 'receivables outside the trade cycle.'
- Reconcile operating cash flow and profit for FY2023–FY2025 in the cash-flow statement and the profit-and-loss note to verify the 3-year cash conversion ratio of 0.01 and to identify major non-cash adjustments or one-off timing items.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the schedule of receivables aging to validate the components behind DSRI = 1.9492 and the revenue-quality = 0.0/100 signal.
- Review the equity and retained-earnings lines and the statutory-loss disclosures to confirm that accumulated losses are absent and that none of the Decree 155/2020 (amended) statutory loss tests for listing cancellation are met.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 25.90
- P/S
- 132.64
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- EPS
- 1.773
- BVPS
- 21.056
- Gross Margin
- 44.1%
- Net Margin
- 43.1%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 31.51
- Rev Growth
- −0.4%
- Profit Growth
- +105.6%
- EV/EBITDA
- 551.38
- Div Yield
- 0.1%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 62.2M
- Charter Capital
- 622B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT