Back to Dashboard

TB8

Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất và Kinh doanh Vật tư Thiết bị - VVMI

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpHàng công nghiệpUPCOMCT
16.000
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−4.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
16.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.329

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The date of the last close could not be confirmed.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng công nghiệp→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Hàng công nghiệp” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→6.26B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→16.000
Calibrated value vs last close→−4.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
15.329
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA6.3 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7062736858·454254588277
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.51633·20.60.40.414
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·5654544741·333143466150
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.050.80.400·00.020.010.030.20.9
Net Inventories
·137121713·111110112021
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·137121713·111110112021
Other current assets
·0.80.10.70.090.3·0.10.010.050.040.11.0
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·446911·3345813
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000.010.010.02
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000.010.010.02
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·346911·3345813
Tangible fixed assets
·346911·3345813
Other non-current assets
·0.020.030.020.010.01·0.0000.010.090.20.3
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.020.030.020.010.01·0.0000.010.090.20.3
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7466797769·484458639089
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·5346595750·302639477677
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·5346595646·302639477677
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·17713109·35582414
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·00000·0000.0000.4
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.50.01015·0.010.090.000.010.20.01
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0.50015·000000
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·2120202019·191819161413
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·2120202019·191819161413
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1313131313·1313131366
Other Reserves
·00003·200000
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·55552·243343
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·33322·213000
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·7466797769·484458639089
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1313131313·1313131366

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
41
Weak
Accrual Quality
50
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
86
Margin Stability
50
Revenue Quality
42

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.84 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.71
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.023
GMI
1.037
AQI
10.000
SGI
1.002
DEPI
0.971
SGAI
0.955
TATA
0.139
LVGI
1.045

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−0.2019th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.1%7th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple signals consistent with aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 1.8367 (97th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +3.71. Earnings-quality metrics are mixed: very low cash-conversion (0.0/100) and an overall Earnings Quality Score of 41.3/100, but low receivables outside the trade cycle (0.1% of total assets). Liquidity and solvency appear strong by standard ratios: Altman Z-Score 5.55 (safe zone), while operating fundamentals look weak on Piotroski F-Score (2/9).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 1.8367. This number is above the US -1.78 cutoff used by Beneish, but that cutoff is US-calibrated; here the score sits at the 97th percentile versus Vietnamese peers, indicating the company is more aggressive on the M-Score components than 97% of VN peers.
  • Year-over-year M-Score change = +3.71. The M-Score rose substantially year-over-year (consecutive-year M-Scores have low persistence), so accounting characteristics recently shifted toward the manipulation side of the metric.
  • AQI (Abnormal Accruals Index) = 10.0000. AQI measures unusual accrual behavior; a value of 10 on your scale indicates a large abnormal-accrual signal contributing to the M-Score.
  • TATA (Total Accruals) = 0.1386. Total accruals are material (13.86% of some scale), consistent with the weak cash-conversion and elevated AQI.
  • Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = -0.20 (19th percentile among VN non-financials). Negative cash conversion indicates reported profits have not converted into operating cash over three years.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 2/9. This low score indicates weak operating fundamentals and poor profitability/financial-strength signals on the Piotroski checklist.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.1% of total assets (7th percentile). This low level suggests limited prepayments, long-term receivables or related-party loans classified as receivables.
  • Receivables quality = 86.2/100. The receivables-quality component is strong, supporting the low proportion of receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Altman Z-Score = 5.55 (safe zone). By the Altman measure the company has distance from bankruptcy risk.
  • SGAI = 0.9548 and SGI = 1.0024. Selling, general & administrative expense intensity and sales growth indices are not showing extreme anomalies (SGAI slightly down; SGI near 1.00).
  • Margin quality = 50.0/100 and accruals quality = 49.7/100. These are middling scores (neither strongly healthy nor extremely poor), indicating some stable elements in reported margins and accrual patterns aside from the AQI/TATA signals.
Ownership Risk

Information on the listed group and largest shareholders was not provided. The company trades on UPCoM (not HOSE/HNX), which implies different listing disclosure regimes; no director-deal registrations or insider-registration details were supplied in the data you provided.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) with parent net profit to reconcile the 3‑year cash conversion ratio of -0.20 and explain major items (non‑cash adjustments, working‑capital movements) driving the negative conversion.
  • Inspect the notes and schedules for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to confirm the 0.1% of total assets labelled as receivables outside the trade cycle and to identify any related‑party balances.
  • Review the auditor’s report and the notes on provisions and impairment to understand the drivers of AQI = 10.0000 and TATA = 0.1386 (look for large discretionary accruals, one‑off adjustments or reclassifications).
  • Reconcile revenue and cost notes with the revenue-quality score (41.9/100) and margin disclosures to see if there are timing, recognition or unusual revenue items (e.g., bill-and-hold, consignment, returns, rebates) affecting revenue quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
5.55
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.43
Above 1
Composite
54
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover4.80×Leverage3.59=ROE15.6%
Price Risk
Momentum
+59.6%
Volatility
28.6%
Max Drawdown
−0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.27P/E
P/B
0.98
P/S
0.06
ROE
15.6%
ROA
4.6%
EPS
2.552
BVPS
16.403
Gross Margin
7.9%
Net Margin
0.9%
D/E
0.87
Current Ratio
1.33
Rev Growth
+0.2%
Profit Growth
+3.2%
EV/EBITDA
5.06
Div Yield
10.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
1.3M
Charter Capital
12.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng công nghiệp
Sub-industry
Containers & Đóng gói
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →