Back to Dashboard

STH

Công ty Cổ phần STH Holdings

VietnamConsumerTruyền thôngUPCOMCT
17.300
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+16.8%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
17.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.201

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
57.8%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+5.1percentage points
Consumer12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−9.5+5.5
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Truyền thông→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Truyền thông” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
94.51%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.06%
x
D/(D+E)
5.49%
=
WACC
10.76%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend8.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→3.25B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→17.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.8%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
20.201
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.76%
Growth rate8.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow3.3 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.00

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth5.0%6.5%8.0%9.5%11.0%
8.8%17.53917.53917.53917.53917.539
9.8%17.53917.53917.53917.53917.539
10.8%17.53917.53917.53917.53917.539
11.8%17.53917.53917.53917.53917.539
12.8%17.53917.53917.53917.53917.539
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,08817417321747151298
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·9373127540.60.6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·31610127170000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·20514114518715420.70.5
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1060.20.040.100.060.030.050.080.03
Net Inventories
·4701714976577
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·4701714976577
Other current assets
·40.40.320.80.030.10.40.03
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2994038882011976178
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·04001801805000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00001801805000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·20911134099878
Tangible fixed assets
·18511123999878
Leased assets
·000000.6000
Intagible fixed assets
·240.50.60.30000.030.07
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·020202000000
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·020202000000
Other non-current assets
·890.8213570.40.040
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·20.823570.40.040
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,387214212305248212721716
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·951151468481341212
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·58715143013124125
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2751295810080.5
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·1040.30.080.080.1337,0010.020.050.07
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3640.090.0738350.60.20.27
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·3140038350.4007
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·4371991982362001996844
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·4371991982362001996844
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·1951951951951951956522
Other Reserves
·0.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.5
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·3832643311.0
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,387214212305248212721716
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·20023430.70.500
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·040000000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·1951951951951951956522
Good will (Bn. VND)
·85001000000
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·203003500000

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
70
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 1.32 · 97th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +3.59
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.145
GMI
0.697
AQI
0.492
SGI
10.000
DEPI
0.201
SGAI
0.301
TATA
−0.067
LVGI
9.522

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
2.1877th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
9.1%79th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.3234 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of +3.59, signalling an unusually aggressive accounting profile versus peers and a sharp recent move. At the same time, several earnings-quality components score highly (Accruals, Cash conversion and Receivables quality 100/100) and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, while the Altman Z-Score is 1.27 (in the distress zone). Margin quality and revenue quality are 0/100.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 1.3234 (96th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation-style signals; this company ranks higher (more aggressive) than 96% of Vietnamese listed peers. The absolute cutoff -1.78 is US-calibrated and not directly transferable to Vietnam, so the peer percentile and the YoY change are the stronger cues here.
  • Year-over-year change in M-Score = +3.59. This measures the change in the composite manipulation signal versus last year and indicates the accounting profile moved materially in one year (consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation, so the move itself is an additional signal).
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000. SGI measures sales growth; a value of 10 indicates very large reported sales growth relative to the prior period, which can be a source of aggressive revenue recognition or related pressure on other accounts.
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 9.5224. LVGI measures leverage growth; a value this large shows rapid growth in leverage on the balance sheet relative to the prior year and may indicate financing or debt-driven expansion.
  • Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100. These scores indicate the revenue and margin components of earnings-quality screening flag concern: the patterns in reported revenue and margins look poor on the metrics used to construct those subscores.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.27 (distress zone). The Z-Score is a distance-to-bankruptcy metric; a value of 1.27 places the company in the classic distress zone.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.1% of total assets (79th percentile among VN peers). This measures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade receivables and is relatively high versus peers, so non-trade receivables are a material balance-sheet item to inspect.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality score = 70.0/100. This aggregate measures multiple accounting-quality dimensions; overall the company scores above many peers on this composite.
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = -0.0671. Accruals-quality metrics measure the reliability of earnings relative to cash flows; a perfect score and negative TATA indicate reported earnings are conservative with respect to accruals in the period measured.
  • Cash conversion quality = 100.0/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 2.18 (77th percentile). The three-year ratio of 2.18 means cumulative operating cash flow exceeds cumulative reported profit over the window; at the 77th percentile this is relatively strong conversion versus peers.
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 0.1447. DSRI measures receivables relative to sales; a low DSRI indicates receivables did not grow faster than sales in the Beneish component, which supports the high receivables-quality score.
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.6966, DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.2006, and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 0.3007. GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year (not deterioration); DEPI and SGAI < 1 indicate depreciation and SG&A patterns that are not signalling upward earnings-management pressure on those components.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. This score measures nine fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 suggests relatively strong fundamental performance under Piotroski's tests.
Ownership Risk

Top shareholders are concentrated: Công ty TNHH MTV STH Gateway (institution) 40.8% and Công ty TNHH Sigma Group (institution) 21.4% together hold 62.2% of shares; the two largest individuals together hold ~15.1% (Nguyễn Thị Vinh 10.1%, Nguyễn Viết Cường 5.0%). This indicates a tightly held, institutionally dominated ownership structure with limited public float.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) that break down 'receivables and other receivables' to quantify the 9.1% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle (identify amounts for prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile the three-year cumulative operating cash flow and cumulative net profit in the cash-flow statement and management discussion to see how the 2.18 cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) was generated.
  • Inspect the revenue-reconciliation schedules, recognition policies and significant contracts disclosed (revenue note and contract disclosures) to understand drivers behind the SGI = 10.0000 and the Revenue-quality = 0/100 signal.
  • Review the debt and lease notes and the movement table for borrowings to verify sources of leverage growth consistent with LVGI = 9.5224, and check depreciation policy notes and fixed-asset movement schedules given DEPI = 0.2006.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.27
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.92
Negative
Composite
57
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.76×Interest Burden1.01×Op. Margin0.31×Turnover0.20×Leverage3.18=ROE14.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−13.6%
Volatility
70.2%
Max Drawdown
−47.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.88P/E
P/B
1.45
P/S
1.23
ROE
15.8%
ROA
4.3%
EPS
1.751
BVPS
11.966
Gross Margin
38.9%
Net Margin
23.4%
D/E
1.35
Current Ratio
1.85
Rev Growth
+984.2%
Profit Growth
+2860.2%
EV/EBITDA
—
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
19.5M
Charter Capital
195B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Truyền thông
Industry (ICB L3)
Truyền thông
Sub-industry
Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →