Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 17.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 20.201
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 57.8%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 2.1877th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 9.1%79th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.3234 (96th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year change of +3.59, signalling an unusually aggressive accounting profile versus peers and a sharp recent move. At the same time, several earnings-quality components score highly (Accruals, Cash conversion and Receivables quality 100/100) and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, while the Altman Z-Score is 1.27 (in the distress zone). Margin quality and revenue quality are 0/100.
- Beneish M-Score = 1.3234 (96th percentile among Vietnamese peers). The M-Score measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation-style signals; this company ranks higher (more aggressive) than 96% of Vietnamese listed peers. The absolute cutoff -1.78 is US-calibrated and not directly transferable to Vietnam, so the peer percentile and the YoY change are the stronger cues here.
- Year-over-year change in M-Score = +3.59. This measures the change in the composite manipulation signal versus last year and indicates the accounting profile moved materially in one year (consecutive-year M-Scores have low autocorrelation, so the move itself is an additional signal).
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 10.0000. SGI measures sales growth; a value of 10 indicates very large reported sales growth relative to the prior period, which can be a source of aggressive revenue recognition or related pressure on other accounts.
- LVGI (Leverage Index) = 9.5224. LVGI measures leverage growth; a value this large shows rapid growth in leverage on the balance sheet relative to the prior year and may indicate financing or debt-driven expansion.
- Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and Margin quality = 0.0/100. These scores indicate the revenue and margin components of earnings-quality screening flag concern: the patterns in reported revenue and margins look poor on the metrics used to construct those subscores.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.27 (distress zone). The Z-Score is a distance-to-bankruptcy metric; a value of 1.27 places the company in the classic distress zone.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.1% of total assets (79th percentile among VN peers). This measures prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables outside normal trade receivables and is relatively high versus peers, so non-trade receivables are a material balance-sheet item to inspect.
- Earnings Quality score = 70.0/100. This aggregate measures multiple accounting-quality dimensions; overall the company scores above many peers on this composite.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 and TATA (Total Accruals to Assets) = -0.0671. Accruals-quality metrics measure the reliability of earnings relative to cash flows; a perfect score and negative TATA indicate reported earnings are conservative with respect to accruals in the period measured.
- Cash conversion quality = 100.0/100 and three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = 2.18 (77th percentile). The three-year ratio of 2.18 means cumulative operating cash flow exceeds cumulative reported profit over the window; at the 77th percentile this is relatively strong conversion versus peers.
- Receivables quality = 100.0/100 and DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 0.1447. DSRI measures receivables relative to sales; a low DSRI indicates receivables did not grow faster than sales in the Beneish component, which supports the high receivables-quality score.
- GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.6966, DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 0.2006, and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 0.3007. GMI < 1 indicates gross margins improved year-over-year (not deterioration); DEPI and SGAI < 1 indicate depreciation and SG&A patterns that are not signalling upward earnings-management pressure on those components.
- Piotroski F-Score = 7/9. This score measures nine fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); a 7 suggests relatively strong fundamental performance under Piotroski's tests.
Top shareholders are concentrated: Công ty TNHH MTV STH Gateway (institution) 40.8% and Công ty TNHH Sigma Group (institution) 21.4% together hold 62.2% of shares; the two largest individuals together hold ~15.1% (Nguyễn Thị Vinh 10.1%, Nguyễn Viết Cường 5.0%). This indicates a tightly held, institutionally dominated ownership structure with limited public float.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) that break down 'receivables and other receivables' to quantify the 9.1% of total assets classified outside the trade cycle (identify amounts for prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables).
- Reconcile the three-year cumulative operating cash flow and cumulative net profit in the cash-flow statement and management discussion to see how the 2.18 cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit) was generated.
- Inspect the revenue-reconciliation schedules, recognition policies and significant contracts disclosed (revenue note and contract disclosures) to understand drivers behind the SGI = 10.0000 and the Revenue-quality = 0/100 signal.
- Review the debt and lease notes and the movement table for borrowings to verify sources of leverage growth consistent with LVGI = 9.5224, and check depreciation policy notes and fixed-asset movement schedules given DEPI = 0.2006.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.45
- P/S
- 1.23
- ROE
- 15.8%
- ROA
- 4.3%
- EPS
- 1.751
- BVPS
- 11.966
- Gross Margin
- 38.9%
- Net Margin
- 23.4%
- D/E
- 1.35
- Current Ratio
- 1.85
- Rev Growth
- +984.2%
- Profit Growth
- +2860.2%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 19.5M
- Charter Capital
- 195B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Truyền thông
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Truyền thông
- Sub-industry
- Sách, ấn bản & sản phẩm văn hóa
- Company Type
- CT