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SSH

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Sunshine Homes

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnUPCOMCT
60.000
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+14.5%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
60.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
68.690

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
  • The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
  • Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
62.41%
+
Kd(1-t)
9.79%
x
D/(D+E)
37.59%
=
WACC
11.15%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend7.72%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→60.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+14.5%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
68.690
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)13.15%high risk: yes
Growth rate7.72%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow1.1 nghìn tỷone off strip ratio: 0.61

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth4.7%6.2%7.7%9.2%10.7%
11.2%69.98569.98569.98569.98569.985
12.2%69.98569.98569.98569.98569.985
13.2%68.69069.98569.98569.98569.985
14.2%68.69068.69068.69069.98569.985
15.2%68.69068.69068.69068.69069.985
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·7,9388,6346,3237,8664,7438,0004,236
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·6934881071551697262
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·877701,3310
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·6,7087,1785,2755,7783,3854,7613,604
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·23420228851356926
Net Inventories
·4488598891,8201,1461,718541
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·4488598891,8201,1471,719541
Other current assets
·82101461064311828
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·4,2015,7616,87811,4605,0102,0131,565
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,3402,2743,7113,7233,7304300
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·074411400000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·187867853047350037
Tangible fixed assets
·167615151946248829
Intagible fixed assets
·2025271111128
Investment in properties
·7887136251668510061
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·1,6882,4032,2836,8095648401,467
Investments in associate companies
·1,2984431,8932,8055648400
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·3901,960390400269
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·000000−1
Other non-current assets
·710.50.1160.020.020
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·710.50.1160.020.020
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·12,13914,39513,20119,3279,75310,0135,801
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·6,0317,8757,36014,0567,1627,4782,869
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·3,7204,5333,3615,0873,7137,3611,669
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·2,1441,4382234215644,2460
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·52487541,5201,3791,104339
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2,3123,3424,0008,9703,4491171,200
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·1,9792,4893,2117,9253,426811,200
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·6,1086,5205,8405,2712,5912,5362,932
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·6,1086,5205,8405,2712,5912,5362,932
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·3,7503,7503,7503,7502,5002,5002,500
Other Reserves
·−956−956−829−849−792−792·
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·2,7413,1402,3361,175864624432
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·12,13914,39513,20119,3279,75310,0135,801
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·4,0322,2952,4673,3871,6952,5400
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,3402,2003,3003,3233,7304300
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·3,7503,7503,7503,7502,5002,5002,500
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·5735855841,195202030

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
15
Poor
Accrual Quality
59
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
90th–97th
M 0.35 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.61
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
4.592
GMI
1.014
AQI
0.839
SGI
0.204
DEPI
1.870
SGAI
2.766
TATA
0.103
LVGI
0.962

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−2.818th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
44.4%98th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
1
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals show multiple anomalies consistent with aggressive revenue and expense recognition: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3451 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +1.61) driven by very high DSRI (4.5920), elevated DEPI (1.8704) and SGAI (2.7661). Earnings-quality is weak at 14.8/100 with zero scores on cash conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality, while cash-conversion across three years is -2.81 (8th percentile) and receivables outside the trade cycle are 44.4% of total assets (98th percentile). At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 3.60 (in the safe zone) and there are no accumulated losses reported; Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 0.3451 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.61) — the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial-ratio inputs and here ranks high versus local peers, with a notable upward trajectory year-on-year.
  • DSRI = 4.5920 — the Days Sales Receivable Index measures abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales; a value this large suggests receivables grew much faster than sales (possible revenue recognition timing or extended receivable terms).
  • DEPI = 1.8704 — the Depreciation Index measures changes in depreciation policy/estimates; >1 implies slower depreciation or capitalization changes that inflate reported profit.
  • SGAI = 2.7661 — the Sales, General & Administrative Index measures SG&A growth relative to sales; a rise can indicate cost capitalization or one-off timing differences affecting margins.
  • TATA = 0.1026 — Total Accruals to Assets is positive indicating accrual-based earnings rather than cash, consistent with weak cash conversion (see below).
  • Earnings Quality = 14.8/100 with component zeros for cash conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality — this composite measures the persistence and cash backing of reported earnings and is very weak here.
  • Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.81 (8th percentile) — profits are not converting into operating cash, a red flag for earnings quality.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 44.4% of total assets (98th percentile) — a very large share of assets is tied in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables rather than normal trade receivables.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 3.60 — this bankruptcy-distance measure places the company in the 'safe' zone, indicating balance-sheet indicators (working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, equity market value proxy) do not signal imminent insolvency.
  • AQI = 0.8387 and LVGI = 0.9624 — Asset Quality Index below 1 and low leverage-growth indicator point away from some types of asset write-down manipulation and extreme leverage jumps.
  • No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive — the published statements do not show deficit retained earnings and equity remains positive.
Ownership Risk

Control appears highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine is listed as owning 100.0% (institutional) with several named individuals also disclosed (small single-digit percentages). Such concentrated/group ownership often implies related-party activity and intra-group transactions that should be checked in the notes; director-deal registrations show heavy registered volume (net registered +100% of shares outstanding) which are registrations of intent rather than executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the line(s) or note(s) disclosing 'receivables', 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in FY2025 with total assets to confirm the 44.4% figure and identify related-party counterparties.
  • Reconcile the consolidated operating cash flow and consolidated net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm the three-year cash-conversion ratio of -2.81 and to trace large non-cash accruals (depreciation, provisions, working-capital movements).
  • Examine the fixed-asset and depreciation policy notes to quantify the change implied by DEPI = 1.8704 (check useful lives, capitalization thresholds, and any retrospective policy changes).
  • Review the related-party transactions and group-company schedules (sales/purchases, loans, guarantees) and the director-share-registration disclosures to verify counterparties, volumes and whether the large registered purchase (375,000,000 shares) or sale (3,750 shares) are centrally disclosed as related-party intentions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.60
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.68
Negative
Composite
25
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.19×Interest Burden1.08×Op. Margin−0.54×Turnover0.05×Leverage1.99=ROE−6.7%
Price Risk
Momentum
−30.0%
Volatility
57.2%
Max Drawdown
−52.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
4.07
P/S
37.68
ROE
−7.0%
ROA
−3.0%
EPS
−1.065
BVPS
14.760
Gross Margin
45.7%
Net Margin
−69.0%
D/E
0.68
Current Ratio
2.13
Rev Growth
−79.6%
Profit Growth
−151.1%
EV/EBITDA
230.04
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
375M
Charter Capital
3,750B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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