Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 60.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 68.690
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
- The latest cash flow is zero or negative.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 7 Oct 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −2.818th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 44.4%98th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show multiple anomalies consistent with aggressive revenue and expense recognition: a Beneish M-Score of 0.3451 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +1.61) driven by very high DSRI (4.5920), elevated DEPI (1.8704) and SGAI (2.7661). Earnings-quality is weak at 14.8/100 with zero scores on cash conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality, while cash-conversion across three years is -2.81 (8th percentile) and receivables outside the trade cycle are 44.4% of total assets (98th percentile). At the same time the Altman Z-Score is 3.60 (in the safe zone) and there are no accumulated losses reported; Piotroski F-Score is low at 3/9.
- Beneish M-Score = 0.3451 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +1.61) — the M-Score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight financial-ratio inputs and here ranks high versus local peers, with a notable upward trajectory year-on-year.
- DSRI = 4.5920 — the Days Sales Receivable Index measures abnormal growth in receivables relative to sales; a value this large suggests receivables grew much faster than sales (possible revenue recognition timing or extended receivable terms).
- DEPI = 1.8704 — the Depreciation Index measures changes in depreciation policy/estimates; >1 implies slower depreciation or capitalization changes that inflate reported profit.
- SGAI = 2.7661 — the Sales, General & Administrative Index measures SG&A growth relative to sales; a rise can indicate cost capitalization or one-off timing differences affecting margins.
- TATA = 0.1026 — Total Accruals to Assets is positive indicating accrual-based earnings rather than cash, consistent with weak cash conversion (see below).
- Earnings Quality = 14.8/100 with component zeros for cash conversion, receivables, margin and revenue quality — this composite measures the persistence and cash backing of reported earnings and is very weak here.
- Three-year cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit) = -2.81 (8th percentile) — profits are not converting into operating cash, a red flag for earnings quality.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 44.4% of total assets (98th percentile) — a very large share of assets is tied in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables rather than normal trade receivables.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9 — weak fundamentals across profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency tests.
- Altman Z-Score = 3.60 — this bankruptcy-distance measure places the company in the 'safe' zone, indicating balance-sheet indicators (working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, equity market value proxy) do not signal imminent insolvency.
- AQI = 0.8387 and LVGI = 0.9624 — Asset Quality Index below 1 and low leverage-growth indicator point away from some types of asset write-down manipulation and extreme leverage jumps.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive — the published statements do not show deficit retained earnings and equity remains positive.
Control appears highly concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine is listed as owning 100.0% (institutional) with several named individuals also disclosed (small single-digit percentages). Such concentrated/group ownership often implies related-party activity and intra-group transactions that should be checked in the notes; director-deal registrations show heavy registered volume (net registered +100% of shares outstanding) which are registrations of intent rather than executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) or note(s) disclosing 'receivables', 'loans receivable', 'prepayments to suppliers' and 'other long-term receivables' in FY2025 with total assets to confirm the 44.4% figure and identify related-party counterparties.
- Reconcile the consolidated operating cash flow and consolidated net profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes to confirm the three-year cash-conversion ratio of -2.81 and to trace large non-cash accruals (depreciation, provisions, working-capital movements).
- Examine the fixed-asset and depreciation policy notes to quantify the change implied by DEPI = 1.8704 (check useful lives, capitalization thresholds, and any retrospective policy changes).
- Review the related-party transactions and group-company schedules (sales/purchases, loans, guarantees) and the director-share-registration disclosures to verify counterparties, volumes and whether the large registered purchase (375,000,000 shares) or sale (3,750 shares) are centrally disclosed as related-party intentions.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 4.07
- P/S
- 37.68
- ROE
- −7.0%
- ROA
- −3.0%
- EPS
- −1.065
- BVPS
- 14.760
- Gross Margin
- 45.7%
- Net Margin
- −69.0%
- D/E
- 0.68
- Current Ratio
- 2.13
- Rev Growth
- −79.6%
- Profit Growth
- −151.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 230.04
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 375M
- Charter Capital
- 3,750B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT