SP2
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện Sử Pán 2
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 25.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 29.061
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).
Technical details
Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.
Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.
Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.2756th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 5.4%69th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.13×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show a mixture of concerning revenue/receivables metrics alongside strong accruals reporting. The Beneish M-Score is -0.0957 (93rd percentile versus Vietnamese peers, year-over-year change +3.01), driven largely by a DSRI of 3.4425; earnings-quality components show very low receivables and revenue quality (0.0/100 each) but high accruals quality (98.2/100). The Altman Z-Score is 0.93 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score -0.0957 (93rd percentile vs Vietnamese peers; YoY change +3.01) — the score is high against local peers and moving toward more aggressive accounting compared with its Vietnamese cohort.
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivable Index) = 3.4425 — this component measures growth in receivables relative to sales and is the largest individual driver of the M-Score here, suggesting receivables (or revenue recognition patterns) expanded much faster than sales.
- Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — both metrics indicate very low quality in the reported top-line and the collectability/structure of receivables as measured by the scoring system.
- Earnings Quality Score 38.4/100 with Margin quality 16.9/100 — overall earnings quality is low, and reported margins score poorly, which may reflect volatile or non-cash components in profit.
- Altman Z-Score 0.93 (distress zone) — this measures bankruptcy distance; a value below the usual safe thresholds indicates a weak solvency/liquidity profile by the Altman model's metrics.
- Accruals quality = 98.2/100 — the accruals component of earnings appears strong, indicating reported profits are not being driven by abnormal accruals under the accruals-detection metric used.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.0044 — a low total-accruals ratio consistent with the high accruals-quality score.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — fundamentals are neutral-to-fair by Piotroski measures (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
- Cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 1.27 (56th percentile) — operating cash over the last three years is positive relative to net profit, not an extreme shortfall, though not strongly high.
Ownership is concentrated: Công ty Cổ Phần Phát Triển Năng Lượng Hà Thành holds 39.1%, and two individuals (Trịnh Đức Vinh 23.1% and Trịnh Thu Hạnh 15.1%) together control a majority stake. Director-deal registrations from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 show 6 sale registrations totaling 26,840,930 shares and 9 purchase registrations totaling 15,384,130 shares (note five purchase registrations without a volume); these are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades.
- Compare the line(s) or note(s) for trade receivables, prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other receivables in the FY2025 balance-sheet schedule to reconcile the 5.4% of total assets flagged as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Confirm the components of revenue and the revenue-recognition note for FY2025 to see what drives the DSRI of 3.4425 and the Revenue-quality = 0.0/100 (e.g., large one-off contracts, timing shifts, or related-party sales).
- Reconcile cash-flow-from-operations over 2023–2025 with reported net profit in the consolidated cash-flow statement and the profit-note to verify the three-year cash conversion ratio (1.27).
- Review related-party schedules and the notes on balances and transactions (e.g., loans to/from related parties, guarantees, prepayments) to assess drivers of receivables and margins given low margin-quality (16.9/100).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.90
- P/S
- 2.96
- ROE
- 40.0%
- ROA
- 10.2%
- EPS
- 2.879
- BVPS
- 8.632
- Gross Margin
- 47.0%
- Net Margin
- 34.0%
- D/E
- 0.78
- Current Ratio
- 0.35
- Rev Growth
- −2.2%
- Profit Growth
- +10.0%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.63
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 20.6M
- Charter Capital
- 206B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Sub-industry
- Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
- Company Type
- CT