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SJF

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sao Thái Dương

VietnamCyclicalsTài nguyên Cơ bảnLâm nghiệp và GiấyUPCOMCT
1.790
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
1.790
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.207

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • The closing price is too old for comparison.
  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Tài nguyên Cơ bản” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→22.94B
Fair EV/EBITDA→13.6x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.790
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
2.207
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA22.9 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·6896385495506833405085075714174544556
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·33911532283634415819301
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000290000855
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·6415925465016002623724114913083813230.1
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·1314135715323110971731400
Net Inventories
·4130.7325044675933444580.1
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·593132325044675933444580.1
Other current assets
·4422154467990.3
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000060.3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1571741944634818217177906627045450.040
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000.0410210218280800.04303000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·10210210210210218280800.04303000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·1451611791962143833543854084262100
Tangible fixed assets
·891051231391572362062072302472100
Intagible fixed assets
·5556565757147148178179179000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00014914919618018014814814700
Investments in associate companies
·14814814814814818118017914814814700
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·0.20.20.20.20.2290.20.20.20000
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−149−149−14900−140000000
Other non-current assets
·13131517171591210.50.000
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·13131517171591210.50.000
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·8478137441,0131,1641,1611,2251,2981,2331,1219994556
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·3632962491983163273634293872752181510.07
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·2161662331762962823073593021851551250.07
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·7769156109119174164161158776300
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·5412221521114292224390
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·147130162220465669859062260
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·101860.71617385368849062260
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·4835174958158478348628698468477812506
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·4835174958158478348628698468477812506
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·7927927927927927927927926606606602506
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−359−326−312114325535013593290.30.04
Minority Interest
·00000000000540
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·8478137441,0131,1641,1611,2251,2981,2331,1219994556
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·15712118036127753138948537500
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·7927927927927927927927926606606602506
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·505115121217172751949200

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
32
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
24

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −0.95 · 88th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.49
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
3.882
GMI
1.263
AQI
0.912
SGI
0.279
DEPI
0.973
SGAI
2.914
TATA
−0.040
LVGI
1.207

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
30.7%95th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.45×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
4Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.9544 (88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.49, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall: an Earnings Quality Score of 32.4/100 with very poor cash conversion, receivables and margin quality (all 0/100) and revenue quality 23.7/100; the Altman Z-Score is 0.23 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, while receivables outside the trade cycle are 30.7% of total assets (95th percentile).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -0.9544; Vietnam peer percentile = 88th and year-over-year change = +1.49. (The -1.78 M-Score cutoff is US-calibrated; about 28% of Vietnamese companies exceed it, so the high peer percentile and the +1.49 move are important context.)
  • DSRI = 3.8820, indicating days-sales-in-receivables (and sales/receivables relationship) has expanded sharply relative to prior year.
  • SGAI = 2.9145, showing selling, general & administrative expenses growing much faster than sales (expense-driven margin pressure or cost recognition timing issues).
  • LVGI = 1.2072 and GMI = 1.2633, indicating higher leverage growth and deteriorating gross margins year-over-year.
  • TATA = -0.0397 (total accruals to assets slightly negative) but Cash-conversion = 0.0/100 and Accruals quality = 100/100 — the pattern suggests accruals are small or managed but cash-generation is very weak.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 30.7% of total assets (95th percentile among VN non-financials). The caption includes prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a large share of assets is not straightforward trade receivables.
  • Net loss at parent/profit level for four consecutive years to FY2025, and audited statements show losses in each of the latest three years (statutory loss-test condition noted).
  • Altman Z-Score = 0.23 (distress zone), signalling low distance to classic bankruptcy predictors on the ratio mix used by the Z-Score.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100, meaning reported accruals (total accruals to assets) are small or consistent, with TATA = -0.0397 (total accruals to assets ~ -3.97%).
  • AQI = 0.9121 (asset quality index below 1), which can indicate no aggressive capitalization of expenses relative to prior year.
  • DEPI = 0.9727 (depreciation index close to 1), showing depreciation policies have not shifted dramatically in a single year.
  • Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive despite accumulated losses = 0.45x paid-in capital, so capital has not been fully eroded on the parent-equity line.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is moderately concentrated among individuals: largest shareholder Đỗ Cần holds 8.9%, followed by several individuals around 4.9–5.2% and an institutional holder (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư TONKIN) at 5.0%. Director-deal registrations over the past year show 1 purchase registration (and no sale registrations); registrations are declarations of intent, not executed trades.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 schedule/note for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to total assets and to the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' breakdown in the notes to understand composition of the 30.7% figure.
  • Inspect the related-party disclosures and the long-term receivables note to see whether significant receivables/prepayments are due from related parties, and whether terms and impairment assessments are documented.
  • Reconcile SG&A and revenue lines in the profit-and-loss and supporting notes to assess the drivers behind SGAI = 2.9145 (e.g., one-off selling or marketing campaigns, accrual reversals, or capitalization policy changes).
  • Review the statements and auditor's report for the three most recent audited years to confirm the reported net losses, the statutory loss-test disclosures, and any auditor emphasis-of-matter or going-concern language.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
0.23
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−2.77
Negative
Composite
62
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.09×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin−0.97×Turnover0.04×Leverage1.75=ROE−7.0%
Price Risk
Momentum
−55.9%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
−61.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
0.33
P/S
4.43
ROE
−7.4%
ROA
−4.0%
EPS
−418
BVPS
5.463
Gross Margin
−9.3%
Net Margin
−105.0%
D/E
0.37
Current Ratio
3.19
Rev Growth
−72.0%
Profit Growth
−62.3%
EV/EBITDA
63.13
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
79.2M
Charter Capital
792B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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