Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 1.790
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 2.207
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 10 Dec 2023
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 30.7%95th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.45×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 4Statutory test met
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -0.9544 (88th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +1.49, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most local peers and that have moved materially this year. Earnings-quality measures are weak overall: an Earnings Quality Score of 32.4/100 with very poor cash conversion, receivables and margin quality (all 0/100) and revenue quality 23.7/100; the Altman Z-Score is 0.23 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, while receivables outside the trade cycle are 30.7% of total assets (95th percentile).
- Beneish M-Score = -0.9544; Vietnam peer percentile = 88th and year-over-year change = +1.49. (The -1.78 M-Score cutoff is US-calibrated; about 28% of Vietnamese companies exceed it, so the high peer percentile and the +1.49 move are important context.)
- DSRI = 3.8820, indicating days-sales-in-receivables (and sales/receivables relationship) has expanded sharply relative to prior year.
- SGAI = 2.9145, showing selling, general & administrative expenses growing much faster than sales (expense-driven margin pressure or cost recognition timing issues).
- LVGI = 1.2072 and GMI = 1.2633, indicating higher leverage growth and deteriorating gross margins year-over-year.
- TATA = -0.0397 (total accruals to assets slightly negative) but Cash-conversion = 0.0/100 and Accruals quality = 100/100 — the pattern suggests accruals are small or managed but cash-generation is very weak.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 30.7% of total assets (95th percentile among VN non-financials). The caption includes prepayments, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a large share of assets is not straightforward trade receivables.
- Net loss at parent/profit level for four consecutive years to FY2025, and audited statements show losses in each of the latest three years (statutory loss-test condition noted).
- Altman Z-Score = 0.23 (distress zone), signalling low distance to classic bankruptcy predictors on the ratio mix used by the Z-Score.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100, meaning reported accruals (total accruals to assets) are small or consistent, with TATA = -0.0397 (total accruals to assets ~ -3.97%).
- AQI = 0.9121 (asset quality index below 1), which can indicate no aggressive capitalization of expenses relative to prior year.
- DEPI = 0.9727 (depreciation index close to 1), showing depreciation policies have not shifted dramatically in a single year.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive despite accumulated losses = 0.45x paid-in capital, so capital has not been fully eroded on the parent-equity line.
Ownership is moderately concentrated among individuals: largest shareholder Đỗ Cần holds 8.9%, followed by several individuals around 4.9–5.2% and an institutional holder (Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư TONKIN) at 5.0%. Director-deal registrations over the past year show 1 purchase registration (and no sale registrations); registrations are declarations of intent, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 schedule/note for receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to total assets and to the 'receivables outside the trade cycle' breakdown in the notes to understand composition of the 30.7% figure.
- Inspect the related-party disclosures and the long-term receivables note to see whether significant receivables/prepayments are due from related parties, and whether terms and impairment assessments are documented.
- Reconcile SG&A and revenue lines in the profit-and-loss and supporting notes to assess the drivers behind SGAI = 2.9145 (e.g., one-off selling or marketing campaigns, accrual reversals, or capitalization policy changes).
- Review the statements and auditor's report for the three most recent audited years to confirm the reported net losses, the statutory loss-test disclosures, and any auditor emphasis-of-matter or going-concern language.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.33
- P/S
- 4.43
- ROE
- −7.4%
- ROA
- −4.0%
- EPS
- −418
- BVPS
- 5.463
- Gross Margin
- −9.3%
- Net Margin
- −105.0%
- D/E
- 0.37
- Current Ratio
- 3.19
- Rev Growth
- −72.0%
- Profit Growth
- −62.3%
- EV/EBITDA
- 63.13
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 79.2M
- Charter Capital
- 792B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
- Sub-industry
- Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
- Company Type
- CT