SDA

Công ty Cổ phần SIMCO Sông Đà

VietnamConsumerHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpTư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhUPCOMCT

1.700

VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate

Comparison requires review

+11.9%Calibrated value vs last close

Last close (VND): 1.700
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND): 1.902

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

1
Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
2
Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
3
Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
The model uses profit in place of cash flow, which was not available.
The latest cash flow is zero or negative.

Also note

Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026

Model reliability: Low; Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks; High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers: Not assessed; A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.

Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Published filingsValued 30 Oct 2026Anchored to close on 2 Nov 2026Recalculated when the displayed close changes.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh” maps to the consumer group.

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details

Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.36%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.38%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.49%

E/(D+E)

86.59%

Kd(1-t)

6.63%

D/(D+E)

13.41%

WACC

10.84%

Growth Estimate

historical blend5.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→3.38B

Projection years→10

Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→1.700

Calibrated value vs last close→+11.9%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)

1.902

What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements

Discount rate (WACC)10.84%

Growth rate5.00%growth method: historical blend

Base cash flow3.4 tỷone off strip ratio: 0.24

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	6.5%	8.0%
8.8%	1.906	1.906	1.906	1.906	1.906
9.8%	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902
10.8%	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902
11.8%	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902	1.902
12.8%	1.816	1.816	1.816	1.816	1.902

Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate

SDA among Consumer

Every stock in the sector, SDA marked: calibrated gap vs close across, market value up, model reliability into the board

Each bead is one valued stock in the sector; the amber bead with its stem is SDA. Drag to turn; open another stock from its bead.

Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation

Line item	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	33	32	90	71	54	91	80	121	74	16	295	74	159
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.8	3	2	2	122	8	6
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge	·	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	10	4	3	17	0	11
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)	·	27	26	83	61	47	79	67	101	56	9	149	52	19
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)	·	2	2	6	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	19	21	6
Net Inventories	·	0.05	0.05	0.05	3	0.09	6	6	6	12	2	6	13	111
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)	·	0.05	0.05	0.05	4	0.2	6	6	6	12	2	6	13	111
Other current assets	·	0.01	0.08	0.01	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.2	1	0.5	0.8	0.4	0.4	13
Other current assets (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	13
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	123	124	168	235	290	267	277	310	362	392	262	292	175
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	11	1	1	1	2	2	7	8	8	8	0
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)	·	1	1	11	1	1	1	2	2	7	8	8	8	0
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)	·	19	14	18	23	27	84	90	92	101	109	43	44	85
Tangible fixed assets	·	19	14	18	23	27	84	90	92	101	109	43	44	46
Investment in properties	·	9	10	7	8	7	8	4	4	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)	·	18	18	56	127	178	97	104	133	174	196	27	78	83
Investment in joint ventures	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	0	0
Investments in associate companies	·	73	73	73	159	158	87	87	1	7	25	25	65	62
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)	·	50	87	102	45	45	24	34	136	172	176	7	21	22
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments	·	−104	−141	−118	−77	−25	−14	−18	−4	−5	−5	−5	−8	−0.9
Other non-current assets	·	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.5	1	1	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.7	8
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)	·	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.5	1	1	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.7	1
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)	·	156	156	258	306	343	358	356	431	436	408	556	366	335
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)	·	67	70	72	90	79	163	166	178	171	165	273	177	138
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	51	53	51	62	50	62	64	74	74	82	189	79	91
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	15	13	14	11	1	5	6	6	9	7	132	15	5
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1	1	1	1	0.4	2	5	23
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)	·	16	17	21	28	29	100	101	104	97	83	84	99	47
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1	·	0	0	0	0	0	21	21	21	20	24	26	40	20
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)	·	89	86	187	216	264	195	191	253	266	243	283	189	197
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)	·	89	86	187	216	264	195	191	253	266	243	283	188	197
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)	·	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	131	131
Foreign Currency Difference reserve	·	0	0	0	0	0	6	6	6	6	6	6	4	0.04
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)	·	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	45	32
Other Reserves	·	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)	·	−175	−177	−77	−48	0.7	−74	−79	−17	−4	−27	13	9	21
Budget sources and other funds	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	−0.01
Budget sources and other funds	·	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	180,000	−0.01
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)	·	156	156	258	306	343	358	356	431	436	408	556	366	335
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)	·	12	5	34	29	21	5	5	5	5	5	6	8	0
Common shares (Bn. VND)	·	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	262	131	131

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

Highest band

M 0.89 · 95th pctile vs VN companies

YoY ▲ +7.93

Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement

Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI

1.998

GMI

0.100

AQI

0.952

SGI

0.519

DEPI

1.000

SGAI

0.950

TATA

0.717

LVGI

0.970

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets: 9.6%80th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero: 0.67×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent: 0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest: Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company's Beneish M-Score is 0.8863 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +7.93, indicating a material divergence from peers in the direction Beneish measures (DSRI, TATA and related components). Earnings-quality metrics are very weak overall (Earnings Quality 5.6/100) with near-zero scores on accruals, cash conversion, receivables, margin quality and low revenue quality (37.1/100). The Altman Z-Score is -0.98 (distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9 (neutral).

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score = 0.8863 (95th percentile vs Vietnamese peers). The peer percentile places the company among the more aggressive-accounting profiles in Vietnam; the M-Score rose by +7.93 year-over-year (the YoY trajectory is a separate signal).
DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 1.9978, suggesting receivables grew faster than sales or were being managed differently relative to prior year.
TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.7167, a very large accruals component in the M-Score calculation indicating sizeable accruals relative to assets.
Earnings Quality overall = 5.6/100 with Accruals quality = 0.0/100, Cash conversion = 0.0/100, Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Margin quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 37.1/100 — these component scores point to weak earnings quality and low cash-realization of reported profits.
Altman Z-Score = -0.98 (distress zone). By the Altman formulation this score is in the range typically associated with greater distance to solvency.
Receivables outside the trade cycle = 9.6% of total assets (80th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials). The company reports non-trade receivables such as prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and long-term receivables at a relatively high level versus peers.

Positive Signals

Piotroski F-Score = 6/9, indicating a mix of stable/positive fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating performance indicators captured by the F-Score).
AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 0.9521 and SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 0.9497, both under 1.0, which in Beneish's components can indicate limited deterioration in asset composition and SG&A relative to sales.
DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0000 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 0.9704, showing no obvious change in depreciation policy and a small reduction in leverage by the index measure.

Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: one individual, Nguyễn Thị Hồng Ngọc, holds 15.3% while the next largest holder is an institutional investor with 3.8%; other named individuals hold smaller stakes (1.9%, 0.8%, 0.1%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the inputs (director-deal registrations are exchange filings of intent, not executed trades).

To check in the filings

Compare the FY2025 line items and notes for 'Receivables and prepayments' to the related-party disclosures and the loans receivable schedule to quantify the 9.6% of total assets classified as outside the trade cycle.
Reconcile total accruals to the cash-flow statement: compare profit (parent) to cash flows from operations and the components that produce TATA = 0.7167 in the notes to the financial statements.
Inspect the auditor’s report and the statutory statements for the Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) loss-language: confirm that the company’s listing is on UPCoM and that the HOSE/HNX statutory delisting test does not apply to the UPCoM listing.
Review the related-party transactions note and the schedule of prepayments/advances to suppliers to assess the composition and terms of non-trade receivables and any concentrations disclosed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

−0.98

Distress Zone

Sharpe

−1.18

Negative

Composite

30 to 49

Piotroski F-Score Breakdown

✓Net Income > 0

✗Operating CF > 0

✓ROA Rising

✗OCF > Net Income

✓Lower Leverage

✓Better Liquidity

✓No Dilution

✓Margin Up

✗Turnover Up

DuPont Decomposition

Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.11×Turnover0.14×Leverage1.75=ROE2.7%

Price Risk

Momentum

−66.0%

Volatility

86.0%

Max Drawdown

−76.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.97P/E

P/B: 0.53
P/S: 2.20
ROE: 2.7%
ROA: 1.5%
EPS: 90
BVPS: 3.386
Gross Margin: 8.6%
Net Margin: 11.0%
D/E: 0.17
Current Ratio: 0.65
Rev Growth: −48.1%
Profit Growth: +102.6%
EV/EBITDA: —
Div Yield: —

Company Overview

Shares outstanding: 26.2M
Charter Capital: 262B VND
Sector (ICB L2): Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3): Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry: Đào tạo & Việc làm
Company Type: CT

Ownership network

Shareholder structure

Shareholders

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Ngọc

Indiv

15.3%

4.0M

2026-06-30

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Công Nghệ Smart Tech Việt Nam

Inst

3.8%

1.0M

2023-06-30

Đinh Văn Thuận

Indiv

1.9%

250,000

2015-04-22

Ngô Đức Anh

Indiv

0.8%

200,000

2026-06-30

Board & Management

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Ngọc15.3%

Vice Chairman of Management Board/Deputy General Director

Ngô Đức Anh0.8%

Member of Management Board

Computed 30/10/2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Earnings-capitalised value

How it is calculated

Keep in mind

Why it needs review

Also note

Valuation Breakdown

DCF Sensitivity

SDA among Consumer

Financial Statements

Earnings Quality

Financial Forensics

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Quantitative Scores

Key Ratios

Company Overview

Ownership network

Ownership network

SDA among Consumer